Washington Nationals: Grading Mike Rizzo’s 10 biggest trades

How do we grade the deals that Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has made since coming to D.C?

The MLB trade deadline is right around the corner, and the pressure is on Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo. Ever since Rizzo was promoted to interim general manager in March 2009, he has been an extremely active dealer all over the baseball calendar.

Rizzo rolls with a simple strategy; draft your core talent, and trade for the supplementary pieces. Just look at some of the best Nationals players over Rizzo’s tenure. Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, and Jordan Zimmermann were/are all key players drafted when Rizzo was at least a part of the front office, along with Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman who were pre-Rizzo selections.

Those are his core guys right there, who he then surrounds with solid players via trade. And it is a sound philosophy; by drafting your best players, you have cheap, controllable talent for the next decade. Elite players cost an arm and a leg in trades, and come with shorter, pricier contracts. Rizzo looks to go after those mid-level players on the trade market – the type of guys who can deepen your roster, but won’t mortgage the future.

I’m not saying Mike Rizzo is stingy. Just look at the contracts he forked over to Max Scherzer and Jayson Werth, or the reported offers he made for the top closers on the market last winter. Rather, he is just smart with where he spends his resources, especially when it comes to trades.

Rizzo has made plenty of critical trades during his time; let’s hand out grades for his 10 biggest trades with the Washington Nationals.

2010 with Minnesota
Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa for Matt Capps

The Capps move was textbook for the rebuilding Nationals. Rizzo signed him to a bargain deal in January, watched him pitch his way to the All-Star game, and then flipped him for Ramos, a blue-chipper on the Nationals’ timeline. Ramos made it to the majors for Washington that September, and he grabbed the starting job the following spring. Ultimately, injuries prevented Ramos from reaching his peak, but he was an above-average talent when healthy.

Ramos did grab an All-Star spot last summer during his wonderful 2016 campaign. Almost fittingly, however, his Nationals career ended when he tore his ACL right before the start of the postseason. He signed a pillow contract with Tampa Bay in the offseason.

This trade went about as poorly as possible for Minnesota. Capps helped the Twins to the AL Central title in 2010, but he fell off over the next two seasons, and has not pitched in the majors since 2012. The Twins believed Ramos was expendable because Joe Mauer had a vice grip on the catcher spot for the remainder of his mammoth contract. Instead, Mauer’s injuries forced him out from behind the dish and over to first base where his bat is much less valuable.

Grade: A-

2010 with Texas
Tanner Roark and Ryan Tatusko for Cristian Guzman

This remains Rizzo’s finest trade yet. This trade is not even totally about Roark. The fact that Mike Rizzo was able to get anyone to take Guzman off the Nationals’ hands remains remarkable. Guzman was an expensive, 31-year-old shortstop who played average defense and swung the bat like it was a pool noodle. Even though Texas felt like it was just giving up two lottery tickets for a veteran, it baffles me why the Rangers would even want Guzman in the first place.

Here’s the thing about lottery tickets; once in a blue moon, you hit the jackpot. Sure, Tatusko never did anything of note, but Roark completely turned this deal on its head.

When the Nationals acquired Roark, he was 23 and scuffling in Double-A. Even once he was firmly entrenched in the Nats system, he failed to impress until 2013, when he posted a 3.15 ERA with an improved strikeout rate in Triple-A.

Roark found his way to the majors that season, and stayed hot through his cup of coffee. He earned a spot in the starting rotation the following year, and the rest is history. Sure, he has strangely bounced from dominating to hittable every other season, but at the very least the Nationals acquired a multi-year innings eater for the tail end of Guzman’s subpar career.

Over parts of five seasons with the Nationals, Roark has earned a little over $6 million while pitching to a 3.31 ERA and a 9.1 WAR. Guzman posted less than four wins above replacement during his five years in Washington. Not bad for a mere lottery ticket.

Grade: A+

2011 with Oakland

Gio Gonzalez and Robert Gilliam for A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, Tom Milone, and Brad Peacock

In an unlikely turn of events, the four prospects Rizzo traded to Oakland all turned into major leaguers, yet Rizzo still managed to win the trade. Gio has absolutely been as good as advertised with Washington; he posted monster numbers in 2012 when the Nationals took the league by storm, and has remained remarkably steady ever since. No matter how many frustrating moments he might bring, you know Gonzalez will give you a chance to win every five days.

Cole, Norris, Milone, and Peacock have all had their moments in the majors, but none have really stuck anywhere they played. (Oddly enough, both Cole and Norris have found their way back to Washington, although Norris was acquired and then released in the same offseason).

Gonzalez has a 19.8 WAR in six seasons with the Nats, good for 16th in baseball among starters during that time; the four players Rizzo sent to Oakland have combined for a measly 15.6 WAR. None of these players remained in the Athletics’ system past 2014. 

Grade: A+

2012 with Minnesota
Denard Span for Alex Meyer

Minnesota should no longer pick up any calls from Mike Rizzo. It’s as simple as that. He is too dangerous.

Span filled Washington’s leadoff/centerfielder hole admirably, and posted a .292/.345/.404 line with passable defense over three seasons. Span was not a dynamic player by any means; he hit just 14 home runs in three season with the Washington Nationals. But he paired an excellent contact rate with solid speed, and found his way on base with enough frequency in front of the heart of the order.

Meanwhile, Meyer is 27 years old and is just now finding some semblance of success in the major leagues. The former top-100 prospect has a 3.74 ERA with the Angels this season, but his 5.61 walk rate and .255 BABIP are screaming for a statistical regression.

The Span trade could have gone very badly. Span’s game is incredibly dependent on batting average, which can go awry at a moment’s notice (see Revere, Ben). To his credit though, Span held off the demons and posted two three-to-four win seasons before injuries claimed his final year in a Nats uniform.

Grade: B+

2014 with Tampa Bay and San Diego
Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven Souza and Travis Ott

Rizzo stole these two prospects from San Diego in this three-team deal, and he is still reaping the benefits. Turner busted onto the scene in 2016, and even though his numbers were slightly down in 2017 prior to his wrist injury, Washington appears to have a budding superstar at shortstop.

Turner possesses an incredible combination of speed and power. On the base  paths, he has already stolen 70 bases in 84 chances in less than a full season. If the opposing pitcher and catcher are not perfectly in-sync, Turner is guaranteed the next base. At the plate, Turner packs plenty of pop into his wiry frame. Besides Harper, Turner might be the Nationals’ biggest game-changer on offense.

While Ross may not have the same play-to-play impact as Turner, he is still a steady, valued presence in the rotation. From 2015-16, Ross compiled a 3.52 ERA in 181.2 innings. He fell off this season, and recently went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but I’m bullish on his return in 2019. He is still just 24 years old; I believe Ross has another gear to reach once healthy.

Souza is the only notable player Rizzo moved in this deal, and he is putting up career numbers for the Rays this season. However, he will be 29 years old by next April, and his ghastly strikeout rate continues to limit his ceiling. Washington would definitely do this deal again.

Grade: A+

2015 with Philadelphia
Jonathan Papelbon and cash for Nick Pivetta

Not good. Not good at all.

It’s not even about what Rizzo traded to Philadelphia; Pivetta has a 5.73 ERA in 14 starts this season, his first at the big league level. This is all about Papelbon.

Close your eyes. Imagine you trade for an experienced closer to bolster your leaky bullpen. But suddenly, things go sideways. That pitcher fails to live up to expectations, the team continues to underachieve, your former closer asks for a trade, the new closer chokes out your 22-year-old MVP in the dugout, and then he pitches so badly during the following season that you are forced to buy him out.

Now open your eyes. Your name is Mike Rizzo, and you realized you just tossed a grenade into a locker room that was a ticking time bomb.  That’s about as bad as a trade gets without actually giving up anything of value.

Papelbon was not the reason the Washington Nationals missed the playoffs, but he is one of the faces of that catastrophic season (Drew Storen did himself no favors, either). This was easily the worst trade of the Rizzo-era.

Grade: F

2016 with Pittsburgh

Mark Melancon for Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn

I was a big fan of this trade at the time. Melancon was one of the best relievers in the game and continued to dominate once he joined the Nationals (1.82 ERA in 29.1 innings). Mike Rizzo attempted to re-sign Melancon after the year, but he turned out to be just a rental player.

Rivero was a quality pitcher for the Nats, but not someone who would hold up a deal for a player of Melancon’s caliber. Now, the Nationals would kill to have Rivero.

Their bullpen has been a dumpster fire all season, and even with the Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson trade, Rizzo would prefer to have an additional arm back there. Rivero sports a sterling 0.68 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with Pittsburgh this season, and took over the closer role midseason without a hitch.

It certainly hurts to lose an electric, young reliever for less than 30 innings of Melancon. But I respect Rizzo’s decision. He showed he was willing to push all of his chips in for a World Series run. Rivero unexpectedly blossomed while Melancon departed, but that does not mean the Washington Nationals wouldn’t do the same trade again. You can’t hold the line between contention and future assets forever; at some point, you just have to go for it. Teams that try to straddle both sides never reach their best selves, and ultimately fall short of the ultimate goal. Just look at the Boston Celtics. If you try to have it all, you will probably end up with nothing.

Mike Rizzo and the Nationals know the window won’t be open forever. They went for it last year. We’ll see if they go for it again this season.

Grade: C+

2017 with the Chicago White Sox
Adam Eaton for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning

I loved this trade at the time, and I stand by it despite Eaton’s April ACL tear. Eaton is a master of consistency, and was on pace for more of the same with the Washington Nationals through his first 23 games. The knee injury is clearly a setback, but he should be ready to go by 2018 Opening Day.

Rizzo handed over a few upper-tier prospects in the deal, but he didn’t blow up the entire farm. I am not a Giolito fan – his velocity never turned into strikeouts at the major league level, though it did manifest itself in his ugly walk rate. In 20 starts with the White Sox Triple-A club this year, he has allowed 15 home runs and a 5.02 ERA. He is no longer the shiny prospect he once was.

Though Giolito is a mess, Lopez continues to develop into an intriguing arm. He is now rated more highly by prospect experts, and seems like the next guy to get the major league call for the White Sox, once unthinkable for those who watched Giolito two years ago.

Dane Dunning, the Washington Nationals first round pick in 2016, is doing nice things in high-A ball as well. Still, this is a worthwhile trade for Washington. I am more of an Eaton fan than most, and his dirt cheap contract through 2021 will only accrue more value as contracts balloon.

Grade: B+

2017 with Oakland
Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle for Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse

Rizzo had no leverage in this deal, and still he managed to do quite well. The Nationals had the worst bullpen in baseball, and needed multiple arms to have any chance in October. So Rizzo called up his old buddy Billy Beane in Oakland, and stopped by for a quick two-for-one sale.

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Madson and Doolittle have extensive injury histories, but both are massive upgrades over the slop the Washington Nationals were previously trotting out in late innings. Also, both pitchers are on tidy little contracts that extend past this year. Madson will make $7.5 million in 2018, while Doolittle will earn just $16.85 million through 2020.

This trade appears to be a plus already; Doolittle is clearly working out some kinks, but Madson is yet to give up a run in a Washington Nationals uniform.

(The Washington Nationals did like Treinen, but it was clearly not working in D.C. Treinen seems like a perfect change-of-scenery guy; he has already pitched much better in his short time with the A’s).

Grade: B

All in all, Mike Rizzo has an excellent good report card when it comes to the fickle trading business. He has missed a couple times, but he rarely sends out more value than he gets in return. Rizzo continues to load up this roster every year, and is the biggest reason the Nationals are now one of the few juggernauts in baseball.

All statistics via Fangraphs. All contracts via Spotrac.