Washington Nationals: 2017 NLDS Tale of the Tape

Catcher: Matt Wieters/Jose Lobaton vs. Willson Contreras/Alex Avila

Out of all the positions in this series, the catcher spot might be the most lopsided in favor of one team. First, let’s start with the Nats, who tried to upgrade at catcher in the offseason, but it hasn’t gone according to plan.

When the Nats signed Matt Wieters, they were hoping to get good offensive production at catcher. But, that hasn’t come to fruition in 2017. The 31-year-old switch hitter hit .225 with ten home runs and 52 RBI’s. In the field, he hasn’t been much better as teams are running at will on him in September.

If there’s one positive to Wieters, its that he finds a way to drive in runs in clutch situation. Out of his 52 RBI’s this year, 44 of them have come with men in scoring position. This includes a go-ahead grand slam at Wrigley Field in the eighth inning on August 6. With Jose Lobaton’s disappointing season (.170 average in 51 games), the Washington Nationals need Wieters to stay healthy this postseason.

As for the Cubs, Contreras emerged into one of the better young catchers in the game. In 117 games, he hit 21 home runs, drove in 74 runs, and walked 45 times (fifth among catchers). His throwing arm is also very good as he has thrown out 23 of the 61 runners trying to steal on him.

Back at the deadline, the Cubs got Alex Avila in the Justin Wilson deal and that has paid dividends for him. For one, Miguel Montero isn’t on the roster, so the Nats can’t run like crazy against the former Tiger. With that being said, Avila has thrown out 17 of 38 runners trying to steal with the Cubs.

Despite the lack of defense, Avila has walked 62 times this year (second among catchers), has 14 home runs, and an on-base percentage of .387. But, does that production carry over into October, where the track record isn’t so great for him (.145, 3 home runs, 7 RBI’s in 32 postseason games).

Advantage: It’s clear this one goes to the Cubs. Right now, the Nats can’t expect much from the catcher position other than a clutch hit from Wieters at some point. Plus, Contreras has been great against Nats pitching wherever he hits in the lineup (.375, 5 home runs, 9 RBI’s).

First Base: Ryan Zimmerman vs. Anthony Rizzo

If we did this matchup back in March, no one would expect this battle to be close. However, give credit to Zimmerman as he had an All-Star season and is one of the favorites for the NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Zimmerman hit .303 this season with 36 home runs, drove in 108 runs, and his .358 on-base percentage was the highest it has been since 2010. If the Nats are going to get past the Cubs, Zimmerman will have to have a great series to make Joe Maddon pitch to Harper or Murphy.

Of course, Adam Lind won’t get to start in this series, but he has the chance to make a big impact as a pinch-hitter. In those situations this year, he hit .356 with four home runs and 13 RBI’s. In addition to those great pinch-hitting number, he hit eight of his 14 home runs in the seventh inning or later.

When you look at Rizzo, his production went under the radar in 2017. He did not make the All-Star team, but he has hit 32 home runs, drove in 109 runs, and had 99 runs scored.

The second half numbers have been important for Rizzo as he has 12 home runs and an on-base percentage of .400. However, if you look at his home/road splits, he was a .319 hitter at Wrigley Field and a .228 hitter away from home.

In terms of defense, Rizzo has the clear edge in that category. According to Fangraphs, Rizzo had nine runs saved this year while Zimmerman was at -8. Now, that is not the lone stat to judge defense, but Zimmerman’s throwing arm at first isn’t as good as Rizzo, to say the least.

Advantage: This one is close, but I am going to give the slight edge to Rizzo and the Cubs. He has at least two home runs in each of the last two postseasons and had five doubles in 17 games last postseason. Meanwhile, Zimmerman does not have good numbers against the Cubs. In the last two seasons, he is 8-for-56 with six RBI’s. If that trend holds, the Washington Nationals might not win this series.

Second Base: Daniel Murphy vs. Javier Baez

Heading into the postseason, it is hard not to trust Daniel Murphy giving his October track record. Over the last two postseasons, he has 17 RBI’s in 19 games and had seven home runs in the 2015 playoffs with the Mets (four of them in the NLCS against the Cubs).

This season, Murphy was close to his numbers from a year ago. In 144 games, he had a slash line of .322/.384/.543 with 23 home runs and 93 RBI’s. Plus, he had 17 more walks (52) compared to last season (35).

The defense is mediocre, but Murphy’s value to the Washington Nationals is with his offense. In 25 at-bats against the Cubs, he had nine hits, three home runs, and drove in four runs. Two of those three home runs came at Wrigley Field.

On the other side, Baez is one of the better defenders in the National League and makes the difficult play look easy. He has played all around the field, but second base is the position he has played the most games at (80), so he’s included in this position battle.

Baez never met a pitch he didn’t like to swing at, but when he makes contact, the ball goes a long way. His 23 home runs this year was a career-high and the 24-year-old has been a .291 hitter since the break (ten home runs since August 1).

Advantage: For this battle, the victory goes to Murphy and the Nationals. Baez has the clear edge defensively, but Murphy gets the check mark due to his postseason track record and for his consistency at the plate. The Cubs will try to throw as many left-handers as they can against him, but its tough to strike him out. In time, this position battle will be a lot closer in the future.

Shortstop: Trea Turner vs. Addison Russell

Turner didn’t get a chance to play in the second Cubs series this year after Pedro Strop hit him with a pitch on June 29 that broke his wrist and caused him to miss about two months. Despite that amount of missed time, Turner has had a great season.

In just 95 games, Turner hit .284 with 11 home runs, 45 RBI’s, and stole 46 bases in 54 attempts. Out of those 44 steals, seven of them came against the Cubs (four of them on June 27).

Turner uses his speed at the top of the order to jumpstart the offense, but his bat is on the right track heading into the postseason. He has hit .297 with 17 extra-base hits since the All-Star break. This includes eight doubles in the month of September.

It has been a rough season on and off the field for Russell. He played in 1110 games and had 12 home runs to 43 RBI’s. He did miss about a month in August due to a foot strain, but the young shortstop has had his fair share of clutch hits this year.

Last week, Russell’s three-run home run against the St. Louis Cardinals helped the Cubs clinch the NL Central division title. He only had five at-bats against the Nats in the regular season and did not get a hit in any of those AB’s.

Advantage: In a down year for Russell, Turner gets the edge in this matchup because of his speed, defense, and the multiple ways that he can impact a game. Let’s just say the Cubs better make sure they keep the Nats shortstop off the bases or they might be seeing him on second or third a lot. The edge goes to the Washington Nationals.

 Third Base: Anthony Rendon vs. Kris Bryant

When looking at this position battle, you have to nitpick to find any difference between these two players. Both of them had great 2017’s and their success could determine which team advances to the NLCS.

If you go by the old school numbers, Bryant didn’t have a high RBI total this year (73), but the reigning NL MVP had 29 home runs, drew 95 walks, and scored 111 times. Plus, he is heading into the postseason on a great note.

Since the All-Star break, Bryant has an on-base percentage of .421, hit .325, and had 11 home runs to go with 35 RBI’s. Bryant won’t be in the MVP race this year, but the Cubs only care about the roll that he is on right now.

Meanwhile, Anthony Rendon has been in the MVP conversation all year. He hit 25 home runs, drove in 100 runs, and had an on-base percentage of .403. But, the most impressive stat of his this season is that he had more walks (84) than strikeouts (82).

Plus, he did not hit lower than .264 in any given season. His 5.7 WAR was seventh in the NL and the highest on the Washington Nationals roster among position players. However, Bryant’s WAR was one spot higher (5.9).

Advantage: This is a fun compare-and-contrast exercise because some new school numbers favor Rendon and some old school numbers favor Bryant. Just like first base, you could rule this one as a push, but the slight edge goes to Rendon. However, he needs to better than the 3-for-20 he hit last year in the NLDS. Nationals get the slight checkmark.

Left Field

As we now transition to the outfield, one of the things you will notice is the Cubs have multiple options that can play the outfield, which will help Maddon in some of these games. In left field, he has one of the more versatile options in baseball in Ben Zobrist. As a disclaimer, Maddon likes to play different players at different spots, so this is our best guess.

Zobrist has played 25+ games in each of the corner outfield spots, but his numbers were down each year. His .232 average was the lowest in his career. Since he is not a home run hitter, the batting average is really what carries Zobrist’s value in most cases.

However, he is still their best defensive option at the position (two defensive runs according to Fangraphs). Schwarber is not the best defensive player, but he can change any game with his home run power.

Last year, Schwarber came back from an ACL injury to play in the World Series and was critical to the Cubs winning the title. He spent part of the year at Triple-A Iowa, but his 17 home runs were the most of any Cubs player in the second half of the season.

Out in D.C., the question marks remain around Jayson Werth in what is probably his last postseason in a Washington Nationals uniform. Werth has not been the same player since coming back from a broken toe injury in late August (.132 batting average in September).

With that being said, Werth’s value to the Washington Nationals comes with his ability to take pitches and work the count. Baker is going to give his veterans a chance to prove themselves and Werth will get that chance. Also, keep an eye on Howie Kendrick and his professional at-bats late in the game.

Advantage: It will be interesting to see what each of these managers decides to do in left field. While he may not get the most playing time in this series, Schwarber is the player with the chance to make the most impact. In addition to his power, he sees 4.34 pitches per plate appearance (most on the Cubs).

While I think Werth will find a way to make an impact in this series either with a clutch hit or a long at-bat, Schwarber and Zobrist give the Cubs an edge at this position.

Center Field

After Adam Eaton went down with a torn ACL in late April, it was up to Michael Taylor to take advantage of what could’ve been his last opportunity in the major leagues. He did just that and showed he could play a pivotal factor in this series.

Taylor had a slash line of .271/.320/.496 with 19 home runs, 53 RBI’s, and 17 stolen bases. If you look at this Nats team, you can make the case that the 25-year-old is the best defender on the team for the game changing plays he can make in the outfield. His nine defensive runs saved is the most by any Washington Nationals regular (according to Fangraphs).

On the Cubs side, they don’t have Dexter Fowler this year, but they do have good options in center with Jay and Almora. The veteran Jay gets most of his at-bats against right-handers while the 23-year-old Almora faces the southpaws.

Jay won’t hit for much power, but he does have a .374 on-base percentage and outside of a couple of bad months, he has stayed consistent at the plate.

Almora has gotten the bulk of the playing time in center (104 games to Jay’s 54).Since the All-Star break, he’s hit .326 with 31 RBI’s and he might be one of the more dangerous X-Factors in this series when it shifts to Wrigley Field (.364 average at home with 33 RBI’s).

Advantage: Both of the Cubs center fielders can make an impact in this series, but the edge goes to Taylor and the Nats. He can make an outstanding play in center to decide a game and his hitting at the bottom of the order rounds out the Nationals depth.

Right Field

While Harper hasn’t played in a full nine-inning game since returning from his knee and calf injuries, the fact that he is even going to play in this series is a miracle in itself. Of course, we all remember Joe Maddon putting Harper on-base repeatedly in May of 2016.

Despite missing time, Harper still put up another great season. He had a slash line of .319/.413/.595 with 29 home runs and 87 RBI’s. He went 3-for-18 last week, so his timing and patience at the plate will be key question marks.

As for Heyward, the Cubs have to hope his impact in the postseason will be more than just a speech during a rain delay in Game 7 of last year’s Fall Classic. While he hit just .259 this year, his defense is the star tool that he brings to the table. Hopefully, the Nats don’t try to run as much on his arm.

The Nats did an excellent job against Happ in the seven meetings this year (4-for-23, nine strikeouts). However, don’t sell the rookie short. In a year where Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins have been standouts, Happ has been a big part of the Cubs offense.

Happ has played 10+ games at four different positions and 14 of those games were in right field. His 24 home runs were tied for fifth among National League rookies and he had the sixth highest .OPS (.842).

Advantage: Even if it is just as a decoy, Harper gets the checkmark for the Washington Nationals. At the very least, Harper’s presence in the lineup will help the other hitters in the Nats order and it gives Maddon something else to think about. That chess match should be entertaining to watch.

Starting Rotation

When you look at both of these teams, they both have strong starting rotations. This year, the Nats and Cubs were both in the top five in starter ERA in the National League. But, the Nats had the slight edge (3.63 to 4.05).

Of course, both of these teams are dealing with injury concerns in their rotation heading to the postseason. Max Scherzer’s hamstring cramped up in his final start and it is still unknown as to which game he will throw and how effective he will be.

Scherzer did go 6-1 in his final 13 starts of the season, but it wasn’t without its fair share of injury problems. Now, he can still be great at less than 100 percent, but it will be interesting to see where Baker puts him in the NLDS rotation.

The player in the Washington nationals rotation that will have the most spotlight on him is Stephen Strasburg. He had a 0.86 ERA and 76 strikeouts in his last ten outings, but this will only be his second postseason start. If the Nats are going to take the next step, then Strasburg has to remain dominant.

As for the other two starters, Gio Gonzalez’s September struggles (16 runs allowed in his last five starts) are something to monitor, but it shouldn’t take away from his great season. Plus, Tanner Roark is not a bad candidate to start a potential Game 4 at Wrigley Field (seven wins in his final 13 starts).

On the Cubs side, Jon Lester has the postseason track record. He has 2.63 ERA in 19 appearances and won three games last year en route to Chicago winning the World Series. But, he isn’t a lock for Game 1 because he’s only been off the disabled list for a month (left lat tightness).

If Lester doesn’t start Game 1, keep an eye on Kyle Hendricks. The 27-year-old right-hander had a 2.19 ERA over his final 13 starts and had a 2.83 ERA on the road this season. Plus, he has only allowed nine earned runs in five career starts against the Nats. His offspeed pitches can throw any team off balance.

Of course, the Cubs have their only injury issues as well. Jake Arrieta is not going to pitch the first two games of the NLDS and it is unknown if he will even get a start in the series. If he doesn’t, you might see Lackey get a chance.

With the injury issues the Cubs have in the rotation, that makes the trade they made for Jose Quintana that much more critical to their postseason chances. Since joining Chicago, Quintana allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts.

Advantage: Both teams have good starting rotations, so it is nitpicking here, but because of the dominance Strasburg has shown lately, the Nats get the edge. The edge goes to the Nationals, but keep an eye on where Scherzer and Arrieta pitch in this series.

Bullpen (Non-closers)

We will get to the closers eventually, but this year, we are devoting a slide this year to the rest of the relievers. While the bullpens have not been finalized for both teams in this series, we can still look at who might be some of the key relievers for both teams.

On the Cubs side, they made the big trade for Justin Wilson at the deadline to help Davis, but that hasn’t gone great. Over his last 23.2 innings, the left-hander had 22 walks and an ERA of 4.94. He will be on the roster, but maybe he’s not someone Maddon relies on.

The relief pitcher with the most strikeouts on the Cubs since the break is Carl Edwards Jr. (44). The 26-year-old right-hander has given up just two runs since September 1 and opponents hit .134 against him this year with six home runs.

In the first two games, keep an eye on Pedro Strop. This will be Strop’s first game at Nats Park since he hit Trea Turner in the wrist on June 29. He has pitched in 16 career postseason games dating back to 2012 with the Orioles and hitters had a .191 average in the second half.

Of course, if we are talking Washington Nationals bullpen, we have to talk about two members of the “Law Firm.” Brandon Kintzler’s season didn’t end on a great note, but he had a 0.82 ERA in the seventh inning and was dominant in that role as a groundball pitcher.

As for Ryan Madson, the Nats will rely on his postseason experience to carry the day in the eighth. The veteran right-hander has pitched in 42 postseason games and has two World Series rings. With a fastball in the late 90’s in velocity, he had 32 strikeouts to three walks in his final 21.2 innings.

Outside of the setup pitchers, the Cubs might have the better long man in John Lackey, who has pitched on the big stage before as a starter. If he is in the bullpen, that will be something different for him. With that being said, the Washington Nationals scored ten runs against him in two starts this year.

While the Nats don’t have a strong long man option between Edwin Jackson or A.J. Cole, keep an eye on Matt Albers and Sammy Solis. Both pitchers can throw multiple innings. Albers ended the year with a .166 batting average against and had the most strikeouts in the ‘pen outside of the law firm.

Advantage: The surprising stat to look at between these two teams is the Cubs bullpen had a 5.73 ERA against the Washington Nationals this year. Now, the Nats had a 5.09 ERA, but their bullpen has been excellent to watch in the second half.

While the Cubs have good relievers of their own, this is where you are more likely to see Maddon go to Davis for a multiple inning save than Baker going to Doolittle. If we are going with that scenario in mind, I think Kintzler and Madson give the Nats the edge.

Closers: Sean Doolittle vs. Wade Davis

The ironic thing about this series is that both of the teams were in the running to trade for Davis this winter, but the Cubs ended up being the winners and they had to be happy with what Davis gave them in 2017.

In 59 games, the right-hander was 32-for-33 in saves, had a 2.30 ERA, and struck out 79 batters in 58.2 innings. Two pitches to watch in Davis’s arsenal are his cutter and curveball. According to Brooks Baseball, teams have a .180 average with 47 combined strikeouts against those two pitches.

Davis did save both games against the Washington Nationals this season, but he had a 6.75 ERA in those two games, so he wasn’t exactly unhittable. But, the only two players with hits were Stephen Drew (probably not on NLDS roster) and Michael Taylor.

Two names to watch against Davis in this series are Adam Lind and Matt Wieters. Since Davis was an American League starter at the early stages of his career, those players have large sample sizes. Lind is 6-for-22 with a home run and five RBI’s while Wieters is 10-for-27 with three doubles and four RBI’s.

On paper, it looks like a mismatch in terms of Davis being one of the great closers in the game, but don’t count out Sean Doolittle. After his first couple of outings with the Nats were shaky, he has been as reliable as can be.

Since being traded from the A’s, Doolittle went 21-for-22 in saves, a 2.81 ERA, and had 31 strikeouts in 30 innings. His fastball can get into the mid 90’s in velocity and teams are hitting .190 against that pitch with 28 strikeouts since he got to D.C. (Brooks Baseball).

If there’s one thing in Doolittle’s favor, it’s the fact that the Cubs haven’t seen him much in his career. The only two players with more than one at-bat against Doolittle for Chicago are Leonys Martin (1-for-8) and Ben Zobrist (0-for-3).

Advantage: One of the things to watch in this series will be how much Davis and Doolittle are used. Doolittle has only gone more than three outs once this year (April 18 against Texas) while Davis did it three times in September (five outs on September 21 against Milwaukee).

In the postseason, teams go to their closers earlier than they would in the regular season. The question will be when does Baker go to Doolittle if there’s trouble in the eighth inning.

When looking at these two closers, it is very close to decides who gets the advantage. However, I’m going to go with Davis because of his postseason track record (0.84 ERA in 23 games), which is better than Doolittle’s (0-for-3 in save chances, 4.00 ERA in eight games). It’s closer than people might think, but the edge goes to the Cubs. 

Managers: Dusty Baker vs. Joe Maddon

It is tough to find specific stats to evaluate a manager on, so there will be certain things to watch with each of these skippers. We’ve already talked about Maddon having to deal with Harper, but how does he handle his starters, include Jake Arrieta (if he pitches in this series?

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Maddon had all the pressure in the world to get the Cubs a title last year. Now, he comes into this series feeling less heat. Instead, that heat is on Baker, who is trying to win his first World Series and get this team over the first round hump.

Last year, Baker didn’t make any bad moves in the NLDS, but got outmanaged by a new manager in Dave Roberts, who was aggressive with his pitching decisions. How long will Baker use his starters and how quick will he go to the “Law Firm” in the bullpen? Those will be interesting questions to figure out.

Plus, there is the news surrounding Baker’s contract. Will the Washington Nationals extend Baker before the series begins? If not, that question will be asked repeatedly before games and it will leave fans wondering whether or not a series victory will determine Baker’s fate in D.C. Not exactly the pressure you want going into a postseason.

Next: 5 reasons Nats will win NLDS

What is your favorite position battle to watch in this NLDS matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals? Let us know in the comments section below.