Washington Nationals: 5 reasons why they lose the NLDS

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Although not result the Washington Nationals want, here are five reasons they might lose to the Chicago Cubs. Remember, they are the favorite.

Tuesday, we gave you five reasons the Washington Nationals will win their National League Divisional Series.

Today, what some of you expect. The Chicago Cubs move on to the NL Championship Series for a third-straight season. It is not the result anybody wants, but the Cubs are no pushover. The chances of a sweep are slim.

As the defending World Champs, Chicago will not go quietly into that good night. When you add the Nats postseason history, well… you know.

There are moments in any short series that determine your fate. Sometimes, you plain run into a better team. Others the bats go stale or pitchers forget to create outs. The adjustment from the leisurely marathon of the regular season to the frenetic best-of-five is harsh. Your margin of error slight.

When you look back at why series are won and lost, they come down to simple fundamentals. A base runner here, a booted ball there. Mistakes you gloss over in June magnify in October. Then you spend the winter wondering how it all went wrong.

Make no mistake, this is the best offensive team in Nats history. They feature three pitchers who will draw Cy Young Award votes. The bullpen is the best maybe franchise history. If there is a Washington team that can make a deep run, this is the squad.

Yet, you know what happens to the best-laid plans of mice and men. Here are the five ways the Nats can lose this series. Some obvious and others complicated.

OFFENSE GOES SOUTH

If Washington is to advance, they must get runners on base and bring them home. Although it seems obvious, the difference between the Nats when they win and lose is stark.

In their 97 wins, the Nats slash a healthy .297/.365/.516. That gives you an OPS of .880 and a stunning 6.59 runs a game. If they pop seven a night, aside from cheap chicken nuggets and pizza, this series will be over in a hurry.

But, in those 65 losses, the bats fell silent. That slash line of .218/.280/.345 gets you an OPS of .645. When you average 2.77 runs a night, you are not winning many or any in the Nats case.

If you look at teams who fall short in best-of-five series, the common denominator is not moving runners along in scoring position. When the bats are tight, you might get only a couple chances to score with runners in the right spots. If Washington cannot make the Cubs pay for mistakes, they will be in trouble.

The Nats were excellent in the regular season in RISP situations, slashing .290/.371/.484. Of their 819 runs scored, 580 crossed home plate with runners in scoring position. If the Cubs control Washington’s offense, the Nats will lose.

NERVOUS PITCHERS

We saw this last year with Tanner Roark. The pressure of pitching in a playoff game dwarfs anything you see in the regular season. The game moves at a different pace. Fans pay attention and cheer louder. Mistakes magnify quickly.

Although the starting pitchers have playoff experience until you dig in, and get the first couple outs under the belt, the butterflies are real. This is crucial for Gio Gonzalez and Roark. There will be times when things spin out of control. How the pair battle emotions and dictate the pace speaks volumes for their postseason future.

For the never-ending chess match that breaks out in the playoffs, the team that wins is the one who exploits the errors of the eventual loser. Whether it is a starter or a reliever whose stuff disappears, the faster they can control their emotions, the better Washington’s chances.

If the game crawls to a stop with runners on base that is a terrible sign. It is one thing to slow your pace but if TBS times pitch sequences then you have trouble.

Confidence played a huge part of Gonzalez’s exceptional year and Roark’s second half. If they lose it, well Wrigley Field will be overjoyed.

Watch what Jose Quintana does for the Cubs. The playoffs are new to him and the same rules apply.

AN UNHEALTHY HARPER

Although the Nats lost Sunday, Bryce Harper’s bat and baserunning ability was on full display. He scored easily from first on a liner to right with his usual speed. If there was no off time between the season and NLDS, there would be less reason to worry.

But, there are four days between meaningful games. Live batting practice from Edwin Jackson and AJ Cole is not the same as Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester pitching in anger. In a short series there is no margin for error. If Maddon and the Cubs detect a weakness from Harper, they will exploit it.

Pitching around Harper for Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman can be disastrous for the Cubs. But, if they can get Harper to chase pitches outside the zone, Chicago’s chances to stymie the Nats offense tilts the series away from Washington.

Chances are Harper will bat second early in the series to give him as many plate appearances as possible. If it works, then Baker will keep him there. You do not mess with what works. It is not optimal for him to hit behind Turner, as you take away the speed game, but getting the swing timing right is crucial.

WHITHER SCHERZER

Are you buying Max Scherzer had a hamstring cramp Saturday? You should not.

When his cleats caught on the mound after a pitch, the biggest concern was a potential tear. Why else would he undergo an immediate MRI? They cost money.

It is hard to see Washington advancing without a solid start from Scherzer. By the time you read this, you will know which game he expects to start. A gamer and a pitcher who reads his health well, he will not take the hill if the injury can get worse.

Even if it is Monday’s Game 3 at Wrigley, Scherzer must be himself and not a pale imitation. Nagging leg and neck injuries hampered him down the stretch. You know, the same guy who pitched for ten weeks last years with a broken finger?

If Scherzer’s leg limits his ability to start, then the Nats are in real trouble. The season might rest on a combined Jackson/Cole game. They better hope Strasburg and Gonzalez can get through five innings at least in the first two games.

A healthy Scherzer later in the series gives the Nats an ace in the hole when they need it. But, he has to make a start.

DUSTY VERSUS JOE

Although there are many qualities making Dusty Baker one of the best managers in the game, the chess matches of the playoffs are not his strong suit.

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Across the diamond sits the daring Joe Maddon, the lone manager ever to get the Tampa Bay Rays into a World Series and ended a curse last year with the Cubs. On paper, this is a mismatch of tacticians.

Because Baker is brilliant at long-term planning, sometimes he is sold short on his managerial skills. Simply, you do not earn nine 90-win seasons by being a bad skipper. Yet, pressure causes mistakes. Maddon won Game 7 of the World Series despite bobbling the bullpen last year.

If there is a point to watch, it is with how long starting pitchers go. Baker relies on them heavily. One batter too many against the Atlanta Braves will cause many to rush on Twitter to complain. There is always another game tomorrow.

There is no such luxury now. Three losses end the season.

Remember, how players execute or not determines who moves on. But, Baker has to make moves at the right time to keep the machine moving. With a brilliant bullpen and bench, those decisions should be easier. Assumptions are dangerous.

Next: 5 X-factors in NLDS

Without an announced extension, Baker goes into the NLDS under immense pressure. Washington won 97 under him this season. He is up to the challenge.

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