Washington Nationals: Storylines to watch in Game 1 of NLDS

How does Joe Maddon pitch to Harper?

The proverbial million dollar question in this series is how the Cubs decide to pitch to Bryce Harper. In 2016, Maddon wanted no part of Harper as he decided to walk him 13 times in a four game series at Wrigley Field. However, with Harper only a week removed from coming back from injury, do the Cubs keep that same strategy?

Harper was hitting second over the last week, but it would be a surprise if the Washington Nationals kept him in that number two spot. Personally, that spot should go to Jayson Werth for his ability to take pitches and allow Trea Turner to wreak havoc on the bases (we will get to that).

This season, Harper had good numbers against the Cubs. Despite striking out ten times, he went 10-for-30 at the plate with a pair of doubles, a home run, and three RBI’s. He also homered against Kyle Hendricks back in May 2015 at Wrigley (4-for-13 lifetime).

While Harper only went 3-for-18 last week, his two hits in the season finale might be a sign of things to come for his timing. If that’s the case and Dusty Baker does decide to go left-right-left-right with the lineup, Ryan Zimmerman will be hitting cleanup.

If Zimmerman hits cleanup, expect the Cubs not to intentionally walk Harper, but to pitch carefully around him. Zimmerman has not hit Cubs pitching well the last two years and is 0-for-9 against the Cubs right-hander with a couple of strikeouts.

In the early stages of the game, Harper will be pitched carefully and then expect the team to use any left-hander to go up against him in the late innings.

Hendricks offspeed throws off timing

A month ago, you could’ve made the case that the Game 1 starters would’ve been Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. However, Hendricks has been the team’s best pitcher in the second half (2.19 ERA over his final 13 starts).

On Wednesday, during the Cubs workout session, Maddon explained the decision to start Hendricks today and part of the reason why how he has had success against the Washington Nationals

Now, Hendricks doesn’t rely on the strikeout to get outs (72 in 78.1 innings in the second half), but he is able to generate plenty of groundballs. This season, opponents have hit ground balls over 50% of the time (according to Fangraphs).

Over the past three seasons, Hendricks’ average fastball velocity has gone down from about 88 miles-per-hour to 86 mph. The key pitch for him is going to be his changeup, which he used 28% of the time this year (Both numbers courtesy of Fangraphs).

Speaaking of that changeup, there were only three extra bases hit against that pitch in the second half and opponents struck out 39 times (Brooks Baseball). With the lack of velocity on his fastball, that actually sets up his offspeed to be that much more effective.

Hendricks has five career starts against the Nats and is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA. That is a good track record, but he did lose on August 4 at Wrigley when he gave up three runs on five hits. All three runs that were scored came on home runs hit by Daniel Murphy, who loves facing the Cubs.

While Hendricks has a good sample size against Washington, keep an eye today on whether or not his changeup takes the bats out of their rhythm.

Can Strasburg pick up where he left off?

Since Max Scherzer isn’t going to pitch Game 1 of this series, all of the pressure falls on Strasburg to deliver in a big game. This will be his first postseason start since 2014 when he went five innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, and struck out two in a loss to the Giants.

It is disappointing that Scherzer will not be pitching in this game, but Strasburg has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two months. In those final ten starts, he went 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and had 76 strikeouts.

Like Hendricks, Strasburg’s changeup has been near impossible to hit over this recent hot stretch. According to Brooks Baseball, teams have a .093 average against that pitch with 29 strikeouts and zero extra-base hits since the All-Star break.

Strasburg did face the Cubs earlier this year (June 28) and was dominant in that game. He went seven innings, gave up two earned runs on only four hits, and struck out 13 in a win. Since last year, he has 21 strikeouts in two starts against the Cubs, but Willson Contreras did homer against him in June.

Of course, with it being Game 1, the one thing to watch is whether or not Strasburg can have a clean first couple of innings. If he gets too amped up, the Cubs have an offense that can make the lead 2-0 or 3-0 in a hurry with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo at the top of the lineup

Also, Strasburg had to deal with cramps in a few of his starts in the second half. If that trend continues, the Nats may have to use their bullpen early in this game, which they can’t afford to do with Gio Gonzalez pitching Game 2 tomorrow.

This game has the chance to be Strasburg’s second “coming-out party” after bursting onto the stage in his debut in 2010. A great start here could be a big momentum boost for the Nats in this series. As for a loss, well, that could create a bad domino effect.

Look for Turner to set tempo

The only hitter in the Washington Nationals lineup who hasn’t faced Kyle Hendricks in his career is the leadoff hitter, Trea Turner. Remember Turner was on the disabled list in the last Nats-Cubs matchup and wasn’t in the majors when Hendricks faced them a year ago.

If the Nats want to get off to a fast start, it might literally have to be Turner’s speed that will have to steal them a run or two early. Out of the 13 steals the Washington Nationals had against the Cubs in 2017, seven of them were by Turner.

The problem for Turner in this game might be that Hendricks doesn’t walk a lot of hitters. In 24 starts, the right-hander had just 40 walks and his 19 walks after the break were the fewest in the Cubs rotation.

With Hendricks’ go-to pitch being the changeup, Turner hasn’t been fooled by many of those pitches this year. He has just eight strikeouts on that pitch despite a .255 batting average (Brooks Baseball). But, can he stay patient enough to work a walk and get a rally started that way?

Last postseason, Turner didn’t get a hit in Game 1 (0-for-5), but went on to go 6-for-14 in the next three games. If he can go on that kind of stretch to start the series, this offense will get a run or two early to boost the crowd.

Walks will be key because if Turner can get on base, he has a good chance to steal a base against Hendricks. This year, teams are 13-for-17 stealing on Hendricks, but he also has a team-high seven pickoffs. It will be up for Turner and first base coach Davey Lopes to decide when is a good time to run.

Keep Bryant and Rizzo from doing damage

When you look at the Cubs lineup, two of the names that the Nats will be circling on their scouting reports will be Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Bryant and Rizzo have the potential to wreak havoc on any opposing pitcher, but the Nats kept them fairly in check this season.

Out of the 47 combined at-bats, the two of them had 12 hits, but only five of them went for extra-base hits and Rizzo hit the lone home run between the two. As for how they did against Strasburg, Bryant was 2-for-3 with a double while Rizzo struck out twice in three at-bats.

Bryant was able to get on-base consistently down the stretch for the Cubs offense. He had a .413 OBP and walked 14 times over the final 25 games. He had a big postseason a year ago as his 20 hits were the most on the team during their World Series run.

The only player who walked more times than Bryant on the Cubs in September was Rizzo (16). While he only had one home run in September, his 53 RBI’s after the break were the most of any player in the Cubs lineup.

Now, Maddon has many versatile options hew can put in his lineup, but Bryant and Rizzo are going to be two of the main hitters, so Strasburg has to do a good job in navigating that part of the lineup. Otherwise, he could be in for a long night when you consider Willson Contreras in the middle of the order hit five home runs against the Nats this year.

Prediction

While I think the Washington Nationals will win this series in five games, this is not a favorable matchup for the Nats. Hendricks has proven that he can keep the offense off balance and disrupt their timing. Plus, he won’t be phased by the big stage because he did start Game 7 of the World Series in Cleveland last year.

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As for Strasburg, this is his first big game on the mound in three years. While he is not a young pitcher anymore, it will be interesting to see if he gets too pumped up because giving up a run or two early could be the difference.

Both of these teams will have a tough time scoring runs, which will go against the trend of the postseason so far. However, don’t be surprised if Joe Maddon goes to Wade Davis for a four or five out save because he has Jon Lester going for him in Game 2.

If the Cubs can get an early lead, it will make the Nats probably play tight and will quiet what should be a raucous crowd tonight. Chicago has the pressure of being the defending champions, but the bulk of the pressure is on the Nats with the Scherzer injury news and trying to get the playoff monkey off their backs.

This will be a well pitched game and Strasburg will have a much better performance this year compared to his Game 1 outing in 2014. However, I am taking the Cubs to win a close Game 1 on the road.

Next: Cubs-Nats Tale of the Tape

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