Washington Nationals: Storylines to watch with series in Wrigley
As the series shifts to Wrigley Field, here are five storylines for Game 3 of the NLDS between the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs
The Washington Nationals were able to get a split of the first two games of the series against the Chicago Cubs thanks to late home runs from Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. Due to those home runs, the momentum might’ve take a turn in the Nats favor. But, the series shifts to Wrigley Field now.
This season, the Cubs won 48 games at home, which was the third most of any team in the National League. With that being said, the Nats won two out of three games at Wrigley in August and their 50 road wins were the most in the NL and the second most in baseball (Astros won 53).
In their prior three postseason runs, the Nats have won their only two road Game 3’s and that includes last year’s win at Dodger Stadium. Plus, they have their ace on the mound in Max Scherzer as he makes his return from his hamstring injury.
Meanwhile, Jose Quintana will take the ball for the Cubs. Quintana was traded from the White Sox to the Cubs in July and that trade sparked the Cubs to a strong second half and an eventual National League Central division title. But, this will be his postseason debut, so it is an unknown as to how we will do.
In Game 2, we saw a combined four home runs after zero in Game 1. Since this is an afternoon game at Wrigley, the wind is going to play a big factor in this game, especially if it is blowing out.
Before Game 3 starts this afternoon (4:08 p.m ET, TBS), here are our five storylines for today’s game. Our first storyline has to involve the pitcher that all the spotlight will be on tomorrow nationally.
What to expect from Max Scherzer
It is rare that you see a team in the postseason pitch their ace in Game 3 as a non-wildcard team, but Scherzer gets an opportunity to keep the momentum in the Nats favor with a good outing this afternoon.
Scherzer hasn’t pitched since September 30 after leaving that game early with a hamstring injury. It is unknown as to how severe that hamstring injury is, but it was severe enough to keep a gamer like Scherzer from pitching the first two games.
The one question to have about the ace going into this outing is how he will hold up in the middle innings of this game. Remember, in the second half, he was constantly leaving games or being scratched from games with injuries. In the postseason, it will take a lot to keep Scherzer from throwing. Yesterday, he said how he thinks he will be able to throw 100 pitches.
Max Scherzer on his hamstring: “It’s how long I can go without re-injuring this.” Said he fully anticipates to be able to go 100 pitches.
— Jorge Castillo (@jorgecastillo) October 8, 2017
In his postseason career, Scherzer is 4-4 in 16 games (12 starts). However, he is 0-2 in his last three October outings and that includes going winless in two starts against the Dodgers last year. So, you could say he is looking to get a small postseason monkey off his back.
Now, Scherzer had a good outing against the Cubs on June 27 when he went six innings, gave up one run on two hits, and struck out six on 93 pitches in a win at Nats Park. However, his last start at Wrigley Field should be a concern.
Back in May 2016, Scherzer had one of his worst outings in a curly W uniform on a Friday afternoon at Wrigley. He went five innings, gave up seven runs, seven hits, and four home runs in a loss. Two of those home runs were by Ben Zobrist and one came from Anthony Rizzo.
While I am not expecting Scherzer to be his dominant self in this game, expect a quality outing and enough to keep the Nats offense in this game. It is clear starting pitching hasn’t been a problem yet for the Nats and expect that trend to continue today.
Jose Quintana makes postseason debut
One of the themes this postseason has been the struggles for pitchers making their debuts. Some of the big name pitchers with those bad games were Luis Severino, Chris Sale, and Taijuan Walker. Will Quintana fall into that category today?
While today is Quintana’s postseason debut, he has pitched in big games before. Last March, he started for Colombia against the USA in the World Baseball Classic and was dominant as he gave up only one hit over 5.2 innings.
Since being traded from the White Sox to the Cubs, Quintana has excelled on the north side of Chicago. He won seven of his 14 starts in the second half and went 2-with a 2.31 ERA in five September starts.
Quintana did only allow nine home runs in the second half, but six of them came at Wrigley Field, including three against the Diamondbacks on August 3. With that being said, he does have an advantage on the Nats and that is a lack of familiarity.
Heading into this game, the only regular who has faced him is Matt Wieters (2-for-3, one double). Two other prominent bench players have had at-bats against him in Adam Lind (2-for-9) and Howie Kendrick (5-for-10, two RBI’s).
In his pitch arsenal, he has mixed results with his offspeed pitches. According to Brooks Baseball, teams hit a mere .156 against his changeup, but had a .412 slugging percentage against his curveball.
Keep an eye on the first few innings. If he gets past those unscathed, he can settle in and it will be a long day for the Washington Nationals offense.
Bullpens will be on display
In Game 2, we saw how the bullpens could decide this series. While the Nats bullpen didn’t give up a run over the final four innings, it was the Cubs relievers who gave up five runs in the eight inning.
When we did the tale of the tape series, the Cubs have the edge in the bullpen when it comes to the battle of the closers, but it is how they get to the closer where the Nats have the edge.
Outside of Ryan Madson giving up a single to Anthony Rizzo in the eighth inning of Game 1, the bullpen has been strong for the Washington Nationals. Baker is going to keep guys in certain roles and that is what has led to their success.
Meanwhile, in Chicago, the big question will be whether or not Maddon trusts Carl Edwards Jr. to pitch in the eighth. If not, will he go to Wade Davis for multiple innings to try to get the win? In all likelihood, that is a no because of Game 4 taking place the next night.
With Tanner Roark and Jake Arrieta pitching Game 4, the team that uses their bullpen the least in Game 3 could lead to having the edge in the next game as well, especially with Arrieta having a hamstring issue.
Almora Jr. and Russell could be X-Factors
Everyone talked about the Washington Nationals offense struggling in the first 16 innings of this series. But, the Cubs haven’t had much offense either outside of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo.
In the first two games, Bryant and Rizzo combined for six of the team’s 11 hits and drove in five of the team’s six runs (Rizzo has four). With that being said, the comforts of home could allow the Cubs players to have better numbers.
Two players to keep an eye on for the Cubs are Albert Almora Jr. and Addison Russell. Almora got the start in Game 2 against GIo Gonzalez and went 0-for-4. But, most of his success that the 23-year-old has had this year has been at Wrigley Field.
In 132 at-bats, Almora hit .364 with four home runs, 33 RBI’s, and had a slugging percentage of .561. As for his road numbers, the batting average dropped to .246 and the slugging percentage to .353 in 167 at-bats.
Almora didn’t get many at-bats in the month of September. His 47 at-bats were tied for the fewest in any month (April), but he hit .340 with 14 RBI’s (most in any month). He did not face Max Scherzer this season.
Even if Almora doesn’t get the start in Game 3, he could be a player that makes an impact off the bench. Since the Nats and Cubs have had 13 of their 16 meetings since 2016 decided by three runs or fewer, any run in the late innings means so much.
As for Russell, he has had a hit in each of the first two games out of the fifth spot in the order. While he only hit .239 during the regular season, the shortstop is 2-for-5 with a home run against Scherzer. But, his other three at-bats resulted in a strikeout.
Does Kendrick play for Werth?
Despite the late comeback in Game 2, the question still remains as to whether or not Dusty Baker will make any changes to the lineup. Trea Turner will still hit leadoff despite his 0-for-8 performance in the first two games. However, there is one position up in the air.
That position would be left field. Werth went 0-for-7 in the first two games with a walk. Baker usually sticks with his veterans even when they struggle in the postseason. For example, he never benched Danny Espinosa in the NLDS against the Dodgers last year.
This time, Baker might have a better option to go to in left and that is Howie Kendrick. As we mentioned earlier, Kendrick has good numbers against Quintana and his defense in left is right on par with Werth’s.
Kendrick had a good at-bat against Lester in the fifth inning of Game 2 when he drew a pinch-hit walk. In just 90 at-bats against left-handed starters this year, he hit .322 and had an on-base percentage of .390.
If Kendrick is in the lineup, does Baker decide to hit him sixth like Werth was hitting or does he move him up to second and move Bryce Harper down now that his timing is back to get more RBI chances?
Even if Werth is on the bench, he always has the ability to work a deep count in a pinch-hit role and he can make any pitcher pay for one mistake. It would give the Nats two power threats off the bench in Werth and Lind.
If Baker goes by the matchups in Game 3, then Kendrick is the right play. What storylines are you watching in today’s game? Let us know in the comments section below.