With 2017 consigned to history, here are five stories to watch this winter for the Washington Nationals. Hopefully 2018 is the magic year everyone wants.
The Washington Nationals enter the off-season as overwhelming favorites to win a third consecutive National League East championship.
Yet, the Nats must assess why they cannot get past the first round of the playoffs and addresses those problems before Washington re-assembles in West Palm Beach in mid-February.
Over the next four months, there are changes coming for the Nats. Some are subtle while others are not. How aggressive the team is this off-season tells you where the front office thinks Washington is now and in the future.
After another shortened playoff run, the anxiety felt by fans is real. The major question as the days get shorter is, what needs to be done to get the Nats over the top and into a World Series?
The good news is there is no need to chase down a closer as Sean Doolittle filled the role admirably this summer. Stephen Strasburg justified his contract with a stellar second half and a two playoff starts for the ages. Bryce Harper is under contract next year. Ryan Zimmerman enjoyed a career year.
The myriad of injuries plaguing the team this year is not something you can plan for in advance. When the Nats had to fill roles, they traded for Howie Kendrick and selected players from the farm who filled their assigned roles well. General Manager Mike Rizzo passed those tests with flying colors.
But, the 2017 team took time to assemble. It was summer before the bullpen solidified. Matt Wieters arrived at West Palm Beach after Washington traded for Derek Norris at catcher. Sometimes fans wondered where the focus was from the front office.
This offseason gives a different vibe. There are weaknesses needing addressing and distractions to take care of. As we head into winter, here are the five storylines to follow through the fall.
RE-SIGNING DUSTY
The first order of business is the coaching staff.
The paradox of Dusty Baker is this, he is one of the best regular season managers ever. With 10-plus 90-win seasons and numerous trips to the playoffs under his belt, he commands the love and respect of everyone in Major League Baseball. But, his lack of playoff success angers fans in anxious Washington.
Pinning two tight Game 5 losses on Baker is unfair, but this is a business that runs on accomplishment. Although he has done everything you could hope for if the front office feels he cannot win a big one then they will make a change. Remember, Baker’s contract has run out.
If the Nats move on from Baker, most of the coaching staff would go too. Losing Mike Maddux, Chris Speier, Davey Lopes and Bob Henley would be a major blow to a team rightfully in championship contention next year.
With so many teams looking for new staffs, expect the Nats to get something done with Baker for multiple years after options and end this distraction.
If there is a change coming, watch what happens with Rick Schu and Jacque Jones. The offense is both prolific and baffling. Jones is in legal trouble for an affair gone wrong ending with the team named as a defendant in a civil suit. Schu may end up as the scapegoat for the Nats playoff hitting woes.
FIND A FIFTH STARTER
With Joe Ross recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Nats are in need of a fifth starter perhaps for full season.
Edwin Jackson filled the role well for two months but a bad September forced him off the playoff roster. A.J. Cole and Erick Fedde will draw long auditions next spring, but Cole struggled both in Washington and Triple-A Syracuse while Fedde missed the last month with injuries. Whether Fedde is major-league ready is another concern.
If the Nats had to fill injury spots with either Cole or Fedde, they would do fine in the interim. A 30-start campaign is another matter. Although the NL East is in tatters, Washington cannot assume they will waltz to another title. They must find an innings-eater who will keep them in games at the end of the rotation.
Although Cole and Fedde figure to be permanent fixtures in the rotation, 2019 is more likely than this year unless one wows in West Palm Beach. Fedde must learn a way to get batters out with two strikes. Cole may be better suited for the bullpen where he can pitch full throttle.
Either via trade or free agency, expect a new pitcher to compete with the prospects during the Grapefruit League for the spot. No, Jackson is not that guy.
FIX THE CATCHER
When Wieters signed last spring, it was believed he would opt-out of his two-year deal after this season. Under contract for $10.5 million a year, agent Scott Boras felt Wieters would leave and get around $15 million on the open market this fall.
Um, no.
Wieters slash line of .225/.288/.344 translates to an OPS+ of 63 or 37 percent below league average. With Washington’s refusal to eat contract money, either he plays here or another team takes that contract in total. He stays put and hopes to have a better year.
His ability to call games behind the plate makes him worth keeping, but the offense is troubling.
But not as bad as Jose Lobaton. In 51 games, his slash line of .170/.248/.277 gives an OPS+ of 36. Gulp. A free agent, there is no way he should be back. His 35 strikeouts were higher than his 24 hits. You already have an automatic out with the pitcher, two kill offenses.
Pedro Severino so underwhelmed during his audition, he was not considered for the playoff roster. Fanning 10 times in 29 at-bats, his production is worse than Lobaton’s. Raudy Read saw playing time but his defense is suspect.
The Nats will take another year from Wieters, even at that price, but must find someone to ease in the role for the future.
DEAL WITH FREE AGENTS TO BE
This one will happen quick as teams have two weeks to sign players after the World Series before they can file for free agency.
Although Jayson Werth is the name you hear most, Brandon Kintzler and Howie Kendrick are also potential free agents. Adam Lind has an option for 2018, but he holds it with the Nats. At $5 million, Washington would love to keep him. Lind, as with Werth, provides value to an American League team as a designated hitter. Stephen Drew is a free agent too.
Lind and Kintzler are the highest priority to keep.
Lind can fill for Zimmerman at first, pinch-hits at an all-star level and can play left field. If 116 games and 300 plate appearances are enough, he stays. But, he will test the market.
Kintzler was a closer with the Minnesota Twins before setting up with the Nats. At $7 million and change, he faces a hard decision. Logic tells you the seventh-inning pitcher is not worth that much. With Enny Romero and a healthy Koda Glover, there are cheaper options. But, not as effective.
Kendrick is an intriguing utility option, but as with Werth and Lind, there is no DH role for him to use in the NL. He provides good outfield depth, but there is no place to start him. Wilmer Difo’s versatility makes keeping Drew unlikely.
Washington tries to retain Lind and Kintzler. Werth too if the price and role are right.
WOO HARPER
Although Bryce Harper is under contract for 2018, the Nats face a major hurdle if they want to keep their superstar beyond next fall.
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Nothing suggests Harper is unhappy. Avoiding his last arbitration year with a healthy contract is a great sign the two sides can hammer something out. But, Washington needs to assure him that those championship aspirations can happen here.
Ever since his arrival in 2012, some have counted the days until he bolts for free agency. Even if Harper stays in DC, here is a good chance he hits he open market to get that ballyhooed 10-year, $400 million deal. Wherever he plays in 2019, the cost of his services will be astronomical.
But, Harper has the chance to be for Washington what Babe Ruth was for the New York Yankees, be the transformational megastar Washington needs. A Harper extension would dominate the DC sports world in the way a championship would.
The key is convincing Harper the Nats can win a championship or two if he stays. His salary demands cannot impede Washington building a great team around him. Everyone knows New York, Los Angeles and Chicago can offer high money and championship baseball; so can DC.
How this plays out remains to be seen, but do not be surprised if Harper’s future settles sooner than later.