Washington Nationals: Predicting what their 12 free agents will do
Matt Albers
After being cut in Spring Training, Albers returned to the Nats on a minor league deal. Injuries and struggles in the Nats’ bullpen gave Albers an opportunity with the major league team, an opportunity he took full advantage of.
Throughout the first half of 2017, the Nationals had the worst bullpen in the entire league. However, Albers was a surprise contributor. He does not necessarily look the part and was not even on the Opening Day roster, but he was by far the Nats’ most reliable reliever in the first half. and would’ve been in the second half as well if it weren’t for a few acquisitions
2017 was a huge season for Albers, as he even picked up the first two saves of his professional career. When all was said and done, he pitched to a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings.
Most of what made Albers so successful in 2017 was his ability to consistently throw strikes. He only issued 17 free passes all year, which was good for a 2.5 BB/9.
If the Nats bring Albers back in 2018, they should be prepared for at least a little regression. He was absolutely outstanding in 2017, which may not be repeatable.
That is not to say that the Nats should not attempt to bring him back; they just need to know that he may not be the same pitcher. He will finish the 2018 season as a 35-year-old, so he is past his prime and should theoretically begin to decline soon.
While Albers may not be the same pitcher in 2018, the Nats should definitely attempt to bring him back.
Joe Blanton
When Blanton signed with the Nats in early-March, he was believed to be a steal. Nats fans were familiar with him from his days as a starter with the Phillies, but he had reinvented himself as a reliever.
Blanton was coming off of a season in which he pitched to a 2.48 ERA in 80 innings for the Dodgers, and signed with the Nats for a mere $4 million. They did not have a definitive closer at the time, but Blanton would certainly help.
Boy, were we wrong. Blanton had the worst season of his career, pitching to a 5.68 ERA in just 44.1 innings. While he entered the season in a set-up role, he was barely trusted in mop-up duties for most of the season.
After struggling mightily, Blanton finally began to figure things out again towards the end of the season. Throughout September, he only allowed one run in seven appearances.
However, that was not enough for the Nats. Despite his late-season improvement, Blanton did not make the postseason roster. This is a trend that will almost certainly continue.
Next season, there is a better chance of Dusty Baker lacing up his spikes and patrolling the Nationals Park outfield than Blanton stepping foot on the mound for the Nats.
Blanton turns 37 in December, and there’s not much reason to believe that his age-37 season will be much better than his age-36 season. If he has a major league job in 2018, it will likely be for a rebuilding team hoping he returns to form so they can use him as a trade chip. If nothing else, he could serve as a mentor for their younger players.
Blanton had a nightmare season in 2017, and if there is any free agent that you can definitively say will not return in 2018, it is him.
Alejandro de Aza
After being cut by the Oakland A’s in Spring Training, Alejandro de Aza spent most of the first half as a free agent. Then, the Nats signed him to a minor league deal in June and a myriad of outfield injuries gave him an opportunity in the majors in August.
While de Aza was unspectacular with the Nats, he could have been worse. They did not really have any expectations for him at the major league level, so he did not necessarily disappoint.
In 28 games, de Aza had a slash line of .194/.224/.323 with nine RBI’s and eight runs scored. He also played all three outfield positions, which was extremely beneficial with so many outfielders on the disabled list.
The highlight of de Aza’s time with the Nats came on September 28, when he hit a walk-off single against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Nats have a packed outfield with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor, Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, and Victor Robles all returning, but history goes to show that you can never have enough depth.
If de Aza wants to come back on a minor league deal and serve as outfield depth, he would absolutely be worth signing. However, the Nats’ current situation does not allow them to promise him any major league playing time.
de Aza probably will not play a large role in the Nats’ 2018 season, but his versatility and veteran presence make him worth bringing back on a minor league deal. If he does return to the Nats, he would likely see at least a little time in the majors.
Stephen Drew
Baseball’s 162-game season is a grind, and very few players are able to play every game, so having a solid bench is crucial. Over the last couple years, the Nats have had one of the best benches in the league, which has come in handy considering their seemingly endless injuries.
A major component of their bench over the last two seasons has been veteran infielder Stephen Drew. In his two seasons with the Nats, Drew has played second base, third base, and shortstop, which has given the Nats some flexibility in the infield.
Drew is also an excellent bat off the bench. In 2016, he hit .266 with eight homers in 70 games. In 2017, he returned and hit .253 with one homer in 46 games. The 34-year-old also served as a role model for young infielders, such as Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo.
Unfortunately, Drew battled injuries for most of the 2017 season. He strained his hamstring in early-April, which caused him to miss about a month and a half. Then, he suffered an abdominal strain in late-July, which ended his season.
Drew attempted to make a comeback at the end of the 2017 season and was reportedly healthy enough to play in the postseason, but the Nats left him off of the postseason roster since he had not played in several months.
While Drew appears to be expendable with Difo serving as a back-up infielder, it would be beneficial to re-sign Drew. Difo is a great young player, but has struggled in a reserve role.
Difo did an outstanding job of filling in for Turner when he was battling various injuries, but struggled when he was not receiving regular at-bats. Pinch-hitting is one of the most difficult tasks in baseball, and some guys do it better than others.
Although Difo may be a better player overall, Drew is a much better bench player. If Drew returns in 2018, he could serve as a back-up infielder along with Difo, and Difo could fill in for long-term injuries.
Drew’s veteran presence could also be beneficial for the Nats. 2018 is a huge year for the Nats, and they will have a new coaching staff. If Drew returns, his veteran presence could ease the transition from the Baker regime to the Martinez regime.
Stephen Drew did not play much in 2017 due to various injuries, but the Nats should absolutely bring him back in 2018.
Edwin Jackson
When Joe Ross underwent season-ending Tommy John Surgery in July, the Nats needed a starter who could fill out the back of the rotation for the rest of the season. They did not want to give up the prospects that it would take to acquire Yu Darvish or Justin Verlander at the trade deadline, so they called upon Edwin Jackson.
2017 was Jackson’s second stint with the Nats, as he pitched for them in 2012 as well. Unfortunately, his 2012 season was much more productive than his 2017 season.
After being called up in late-July, Jackson got off to a decent start and appeared to be capable of reliably filling out the rotation. Then, he began to pitch like everyone feared he would. When all was said and done, Jackson pitched to a 5.07 ERA in 13 starts with the Nats.
The Nats have a need for a fifth starter since Ross could potentially miss all of 2018, but Jackson is not the answer. 2018 is a huge year for the Nats, and they must have a more reliable starter than Jackson.
The 34-year-old journeyman can likely find himself a major league job with a rebuilding team, but there is not a spot for him with the Nats. If he returns to the Nats, it will undoubtedly be a minor league contract.
Howie Kendrick
The Nats acquired Howie Kendrick from the Phillies a few days before the trade deadline, and while it was an under-the-radar trade, it worked out very well. The 34-year-old is a terrific hitter and a versatile defender, which makes him a perfect bench player.
In 52 games with the Nats, Kendrick had a slash line of .293/.343/.494 to go with his seven homers, 25 RBI’s, and 24 runs scored. These are great stats, but his full-season slash line is perhaps even more impressive. In 91 games for the Phillies and Nats, he had a slash line of .315/.368/.475.
In addition to his offensive prowess, Kendrick is also very valuable defensively. During his time with the Nats, he filled in for several injured players and played first base, second base, left field, and right field.
Considering he is a great hitter and can play several defensive positions, Kendrick is a perfect bench player. He is especially well-suited for a team like the Nats, who suffer a myriad of injuries every season, because he can fill in for multiple players.
Kendrick also provides a veteran presence and postseason experience, two qualities the Nats are currently seeking. With a new manager and the pressure to succeed in the postseason, Kendrick would be an excellent clubhouse presence if he returns.
However, there is a potential issue for the Nats. Kendrick had a tremendous season in 2017, and deserves to start somewhere. The Nats cannot offer him a starting job, so he may depart for a bigger role. He may be able to start at second base to begin 2018, since Daniel Murphy underwent knee surgery and may miss Opening Day, but that wouldn’t last long.
If Kendrick is interested in returning to the Nats, they should definitely re-sign him.
Brandon Kintzler
Much of the Nats’ second half success came thanks to the “law firm” in the back-end of the bullpen. While Sean Doolittle gets most of the attention for being the closer, Brandon Kintzler played an enormous role after joining the Nats.
Kintzler was named an American League All-Star after converting 28 of his 32 save opportunities with the Minnesota Twins before joining the Nats. After the trade, Kintzler took on the seventh inning in more of a set-up role.
Some relievers would struggle with this transition, but Kintzler handled it flawlessly. With the Nats, he pitched to a 3.46 ERA in 27 appearances, and did an excellent job of bridging the gap to Ryan Madson and Doolittle.
Now a free agent, the Nats should definitely attempt to bring him back. Knowing that Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle would successfully hold late-inning leads was an amazing feeling, and a feeling not familiar to Nats fans.
However, it may be difficult to re-sign Kintzler. He was an excellent closer with the Twins, and another team will likely give him an opportunity to be their closer. Unfortunately, the Nats cannot offer this, since Doolittle has the closer’s job locked down.
If the Nats are willing to pay Kintzler closer money, he may re-sign. However, the Nats are probably not willing to pay him that much to pitch the seventh.
Adam Lind
When Adam Lind signed with the Nats in mid-February, people believed he would battle Clint Robinson for the back-up first baseman job, but nobody could’ve predicted what he ended up doing.
Serving as Ryan Zimmerman‘s back-up, Lind was by far the best bench player in the league. Not known for his glove, he played respectable defense at both first base and left field.
However, Lind made the most impact at the plate. He got off to a tremendous start with a go-ahead homer on Opening Day, and never looked back. When all was said and done, he had a slash line of .303/.362/.513 to go with his 14 homers and 59 RBI’s. That’s not too shabby for a bench player.
While the Nats would love to have him back, his return is unlikely. With the way he played this year, he deserves to start somewhere. That is not something the Nats can offer him with Zimmerman coming off of a MVP-caliber season.
If Lind returns, he would be an enormous asset for the Nats. He has proven that he is comfortable coming off of the bench, and he would do a great job if he had to fill in long-term. Zimmerman remained healthy for most of 2017, but that is not something he has proven to be able to do. If he misses significant time in 2018, it would be great to be able to plug Lind in at first.
Re-signing Lind should be a priority for the Nats, but it is unlikely that he returns. If he does return, look for him to have another huge season.
Jose Lobaton
Serving as the Nats’ back-up catcher since 2014, Jose Lobaton is one of the most beloved players on the team. His dugout antics and sense of humor have made him one of the most entertaining players to watch.
Lobaton has also been a phenomenal defensive catcher and was Gio Gonzalez‘s personal catcher for a few seasons. In addition to Gonzalez, many pitchers loved pitching to Lobaton.
However, Lobaton’s offense has always been something to be desired. He has come up with some clutch hits, including a huge homer in the 2016 NLDS, but has largely been unspectacular at the plate.
In 2017, Lobaton’s defense also regressed some. Because of this, he had a -0.6 WAR, according to FanGraphs. What this means is that he played below replacement level.
While Lobaton is loved by everyone, he may not be worth bringing back. At 33 years old, he is not getting any younger and is beginning to decline.
Unfortunately, Pedro Severino and Raudy Read are not yet ready to be full-time big leaguers, so the Nats would need to acquire a new back-up catcher if they let Lobaton walk. If they are not able to acquire a new back-up catcher, Lobaton would be worth bringing back on a one-year deal.
Lobaton is not what he once was and had the worst season of his career in 2017, which may lead to him playing elsewhere in 2018, but bringing him back on a one-year deal could be beneficial.
Oliver Perez
When the Nats signed the left-handed reliever to a two-year deal prior to the 2016 season, it was a bit of an underwhelming acquisition. The Nats were reportedly interested in signing reliever Darren O’Day, but ended up with Perez.
While Perez was not great with the Nats, he certainly could have been worse. In two seasons, he pitched to a 4.56 ERA while primarily serving as a left-handed specialist.
Now a free agent, the Nats would be smart to let Perez walk. He is 36 years old, and pitchers typically do not fare well in their late-30’s. He also has not been great over the last few seasons, so it is very unlikely that he suddenly improves at age-36.
If Perez departs in free agency, the Nats should be fine. They also have Sammy Solis and Enny Romero as lefties in the bullpen, and can acquire a third if they’d like. At this point in his career, Perez is not an impactful reliever.
That’s not to say Perez’s career is over. He could be a solid acquisition for a rebuilding team, where he can serve as a mentor. Also, if he pitches well, he could potentially be used as a trade chip and contribute on a playoff-caliber team.
Wherever Perez pitches next season, it will likely not be in Washington. However, he would not be a bad option if he wanted to return on a minor league deal and serve as pitching depth.
Ryan Raburn
The Nats traded for Ryan Raburn in late-May after their outfield depth was depleted by a myriad of injuries. He began in AAA Syracuse, but joined the Nats after a week.
With the Nats, he had a slash line of .262/.304/.431 with two homers in 25 games. Unfortunately, the outfield injury bug caught up to Raburn as well, as his season ended after suffering a left trapezius strain in late-July.
If Raburn returns, it will be in the same role that he filled for the Nats in 2017. With Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor, Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, and Victor Robles all returning, there is no room on the major league roster.
However, Raburn could be a good fit as organizational depth in the minors. Looking at history, the Nats will need many more outfielders than just the starting three. Players like Raburn can be unspoken heroes by beginning in the minors and taking advantage of an opportunity when a regular suffers an injury.
While Raburn is not a significant player, bringing him back on a minor league deal would be beneficial for the Nats. If he returns, he will likely see at least a little time in the major leagues.
Jayson Werth
When the Nats signed Jayson Werth prior to the 2011 season, they were a perennial loser and were among the worst teams in the league. However, he helped transform them into a World Series contender and has completely changed the franchise.
Now, Werth’s massive seven-year deal has come to an end. He has been great for the Nats both on and off the field, and will likely be the last Nats player to wear the number 28.
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At 38, Werth is not the player he once was. He can no longer hit .300, he has regressed defensively, and he is no longer a stolen base threat.
However, he is still valuable. He transformed the Nats’ clubhouse atmosphere throughout his seven years with the team and is one of the veteran leaders.
If Werth is interested, the Nats should consider bringing him back on a one-year deal in a lesser role. He is still a quality hitter capable of grinding out at-bats and makes a big difference in the clubhouse.
With a new manager, Werth’s veteran presence could ease the transition. Between this and his pinch-hitting ability, he would be worth re-signing. Obviously, he is not going to start over Eaton, Taylor, or Harper, but he could be valuable off the bench.
It’s not a given, but Werth seemed to enjoy his time in DC and has said he wants to bring the city a championship, so it’s not far fetched to think he may be open to returning in a lesser role.
Next: Matt Wieters opts to stay
The Nats have addressed one of their biggest off-season questions by hiring Dave Martinez to be their new manager. Now, they must determine what to do with their 12 free agents.