The Washington Nationals will return essentially the whole team in 2018. Who will step up their game and boost the Nats towards a title run?
November: the time of year when every baseball team, player, and Washington Nationals fan has hope for the future. The offseason is ramping up, the Winter Meetings are around the corner, and everyone is optimistic their team will fill its requisite holes.
A big part of improving year-to-year is establishing which players can ‘make the leap’ from one season to the next. If a player can jump from a bit piece to a role player, a starter to an All-Star, or an All-Star to an MVP candidate, the team will reap the benefits. The progression of Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Marwin Gonzalez were crucial to the Houston Astros World Series run.
The leap is not necessarily limited to young players – remember Daniel Murphy’s explosion at age 31 in 2016? – but youth does provide more variability, and therefore a greater chance the younger player will take a step forward in their career.
Although the 2017 Washington Nationals were a relatively stable ball club, they were buoyed by several ‘leaps’ across the roster. Anthony Rendon posted career-highs in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, home runs, and RBIs. Michael Taylor, Wilmer Difo, and Brian Goodwin were more than adequate in extended fill-in duty. Stephen Strasburg put together the best stretch of his career. Even veteran Ryan Zimmerman took a mini-leap, bouncing back to near-peak levels after moribund seasons from 2014-16.
So as the Nationals push for the 2018 title, who are the unfinished products to get them over the NLDS hump?
Trea Turner, SS
We’ve seen Turner at his peak. After his call-up in 2016, Turner rejuvenated the Nationals with vicious speed and power at the top of the lineup. In just 73 games that season, he racked up 35 extra-base hits and 33 stolen bases en route to an eye-popping .342/.370/.567 slash line and a second-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
While no one expected those numbers to become the baseline for Turner in 2017, he looked to be one of the best young players in baseball, especially as he moved back to his natural shortstop position.
Instead, Turner struggled out of the gate and ultimately missed two months with a broken wrist. He finished with a .284/.338/.451 batting line, and then disappeared with a 3-21 postseason performance.
At the plate, Turner’s contact splits were an issue last season. His hard-hit percentage dropped over eight points, and his previously sky-high line drive rate plummeted in favor of more grounders. As is common for second-year players, pitchers adjusted to his tendencies, but Turner failed to find a consistent counter.
There were a few bright spots for Turner in 2017. First of all, his defense was surprisingly solid. Many assumed the bat would carry the glove for Turner, but his 2017 value was actually propped up by his defense. If he can sustain that level of defense, the Nationals will have the left side of the infield on lockdown between Turner and Rendon.
It also appeared as if Turner was piecing together quality at-bats right before he was plunked by a wayward Pedro Strop heater in late June. Turner was 13-35 (.464) with eight stolen bases and nine runs prior to with the wrist injury. That is the type of table-setter the Nationals expected. He had seemingly figured out how opposing pitchers were attacking him, until he was forced onto the disabled list for the rest of the summer. Once he returned to the lineup, he was out of sync and never found his groove.
If Turner brings that type of offense to the top of the lineup in 2018, Washington will have a 25-year-old multi-faceted superstar, and the rest of the National League will have nightmares.
Michael Taylor, OF
After a combined 72 OPS+ from 2014-16, Taylor seemingly lost his opportunity to take over the starting centerfield position. But less than a month into the season, Adam Eaton skidded over first base, and the job once again belonged to Taylor. Only this time, he ran with it.
In 118 games last year, Taylor posted career-highs across the board and finished with a .271/.320/.486 line. Pile his 105 OPS+ onto his typically excellent glove, and Taylor finished with a 3.1 WAR despite missing more than a month with an oblique injury.
Taylor’s impending 2018 breakout is partially due to that injury. After Eaton went down, the rangy 26-year-old batted .295/.339/.550 with 12 home runs until he succumbed to his own injury in July. Once he returned from the disabled list, it took him a couple weeks in August to get going before he re-discovered his swing in September (.898 OPS to finish the season).
If Taylor gets a full season in centerfield, he will certainly be a 20-20 player, and those are hard to find – only two centerfielders managed to cross that threshold in 2017 (Taylor finished with 19 homers and 17 stolen bases).
Yes, there will be some lows with Taylor. He is always going to strikeout, and there could be some dry spells. But the peaks will be about as good as any centerfielder in baseball. If his 2017 performance is any indicator, the high points will be coming fast and furious.
Wilmer Difo, IF
Difo appeared in 124 games last year, supplying a sub-par 78 OPS+ in 332 at-bats. The 25-year-old did hit .271 overall, but provided minimal power and few walks, which limited his offensive value.
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But there were a few silver linings for the switch-hitter.
In the 74 games Difo started, he batted .295/.343/.763 (95 OPS+). The real problems arose as a substitute, when he reached base just 12 times in 49 plate appearances, and posted a horrific 35 OPS+ mark. Difo also totaled a 93 OPS+ as a starter in 2016. While a mid-90’s OPS+ is nothing to write home about, it is an acceptable mark for a young player with above-average defensive skills.
Luckily for Difo (but unluckily for the Nationals), the opportunities will be there now that Murphy could miss some time in 2018 following his offseason knee surgery.
Many players struggle when given inconsistent plate appearances, but rise to the occasion when promoted to full-time duty. If Difo can build on his successful mini-run as a starter to begin the year, the Nationals will have either a useful injury fill-in, a legitimate trade piece, or the eventual heir to Murphy at second base, who will hit free agency after the season.