Washington Nationals: What to expect in Winter Meetings based on simulation

Extending Anthony Rendon

Most of the current attention on possible upcoming free agents is on Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Gio Gonzalez, which is understandable since their contracts are expiring after 2018. However, Anthony Rendon‘s contract expires after 2019, which is just around the corner.

Since Rendon is one of the best players on the Nats and likely has not yet reached his peak, I made locking him up a priority. I was able to meet my goal of locking him up, as I signed him to seven-year contract extension.

The exact details of the extension seem a little confusing at the surface, but are actually quite simple. Rendon has two years of arbitration remaining (2018 and 2019), so I bought them out for $11.5 million and $15 million, respectively.

After his arbitration years run out, the contract extension kicks in. The extension is for seven years worth $175 million.

$25 million per season may seem like a lot for a player who has never been named an All-Star, but Rendon is an extremely undervalued superstar. According to FanGraphs, he led the the National League in WAR with 6.9 in 2017.

In today’s game, WAR is one of the most commonly used stats to evaluate a player’s worth. The general consensus is that one WAR is worth $7 million, which means Rendon was worth approximately $49 million in 2017. Suddenly, that $25 million looks like a bargain.

Rendon is one of the best players on the star-studded Nats roster, and he likely has not yet reached his peak. Extending him should be a priority for Mike Rizzo and company, and I was able to get it done in the simulation.