Washington Nationals: What to expect in Winter Meetings based on simulation

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The Washington Nationals figure to be active during next week’s Winter Meetings. Here’s what to expect based on our simulation.

The Washington Nationals are typically one of the most active teams during the MLB Winter Meetings, which could be the case again next week. Last year, rumors about stars, such as Chris Sale and Andrew McCutchen, surrounded the team. Although the Nats did not acquire either player, it was an extremely exciting time for the team and its fans.

In order to get an idea of what may occur during this year’s Winter Meetings, we at FanSided conducted a Winter Meetings simulation. All 30 teams were represented by a site expert from the FanSided network, and we did our best to keep the simulation as realistic as possible.

For the sake of keeping everything realistic, we followed all of the CBA rules, including payroll and 40-man roster statuses. We also had a commissioner to ensure that all free agent offers and trades were realistic.

I represented the Nats, and I believe that I did well while doing my best Mike Rizzo impersonation. However, please keep in mind that none of the moves in this article have occurred in real life…yet.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at what moves I made while representing the Nats in our FanSided Winter Meetings simulation.

Extending Anthony Rendon

Most of the current attention on possible upcoming free agents is on Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Gio Gonzalez, which is understandable since their contracts are expiring after 2018. However, Anthony Rendon‘s contract expires after 2019, which is just around the corner.

Since Rendon is one of the best players on the Nats and likely has not yet reached his peak, I made locking him up a priority. I was able to meet my goal of locking him up, as I signed him to seven-year contract extension.

The exact details of the extension seem a little confusing at the surface, but are actually quite simple. Rendon has two years of arbitration remaining (2018 and 2019), so I bought them out for $11.5 million and $15 million, respectively.

After his arbitration years run out, the contract extension kicks in. The extension is for seven years worth $175 million.

$25 million per season may seem like a lot for a player who has never been named an All-Star, but Rendon is an extremely undervalued superstar. According to FanGraphs, he led the the National League in WAR with 6.9 in 2017.

In today’s game, WAR is one of the most commonly used stats to evaluate a player’s worth. The general consensus is that one WAR is worth $7 million, which means Rendon was worth approximately $49 million in 2017. Suddenly, that $25 million looks like a bargain.

Rendon is one of the best players on the star-studded Nats roster, and he likely has not yet reached his peak. Extending him should be a priority for Mike Rizzo and company, and I was able to get it done in the simulation.

Trading Michael Taylor for Julio Teheran

With Joe Ross set to potentially miss the entire 2018 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery last summer, the Nats have a need for a starting pitcher. In order to fill out the rotation, I traded Michael Taylor to the Seattle Mariners for Julio Teheran.

Teheran is on the Atlanta Braves in real life, but he had been traded to the Mariners early in the simulation. The Mariners had a need for an outfielder, and the Nats have a surplus of outfielders, so we each filled a need by swapping Taylor and Teheran.

In Teheran, the Nats get a 26-year-old starting pitcher who has already been named an All-Star twice in his career. He is coming off of the worst season of his career, but he was severely hurt by the Braves’ new ballpark, SunTrust Park.

At home, Teheran pitched to an atrocious 5.86 ERA in 17 starts. However, he was still the same old Teheran while on the road, pitching to a 3.14 ERA in 15 starts.

SunTrust Park was extremely hitter-friendly in its first season, rivaling Coors Field, which certainly hurt Teheran. Because of this, a trade from the Braves would be extremely beneficial for him.

Teheran is also under team control for three more seasons, which is great for the Nats. Ross will miss 2018, and Gio Gonzalez may be pitching elsewhere in 2019, so the Nats need a starter that is under team control for at least a few seasons.

Trading away Taylor was difficult, but acquiring Teheran made it worth it. Taylor is coming off of the best season of his career, and did a phenomenal job of filling in for Adam Eaton.

However, the Nats have a surplus of outfielders, including many young outfielders who should be good for years to come, so Taylor is expendable. Many fans will be upset if Taylor is traded, but if he brings in a solid starting pitcher, it makes the team better.

Trading Andrew Stevenson, Yasel Antuna, and Kelvin Gutierrez for Nicholas Castellanos

After trading Taylor to Seattle, I could have just plugged Brian Goodwin or Victor Robles in and left it at that. However, 2018 is a huge year for the Nats, and I wanted to ensure that they had an outfielder that is capable of being productive in an everyday role.

In order to do this, I traded three prospects for Nicholas Castellanos. Castellanos is young at 25 years old, but he is a proven commodity.

Castellanos has mostly played third base throughout his career, but has also played some outfield over the last few years. If the Nats acquire him in real life, he would play left field and Adam Eaton would remain in center field. However, his ability to play third could also be beneficial if Anthony Rendon were to suffer an injury.

2017 was the best season of Castellanos’ career, as he hit .272 with 26 homers, 101 RBI’s, and 10 triples. He is also extremely durable, and only missed five games in 2017.

In order to acquire Castellanos, I had to part ways with three prospects. One of the prospects going to Detroit is outfielder Andrew Stevenson. Nats fans are familiar with Stevenson since he played in 37 games for the Nats in 2017.

Stevenson is a great defensive outfielder, but his bat is still coming along. According to MLB.com, he is the Nats’ seventh-best prospect.

The second prospect going to Detroit is infielder Yasel Antuna. Antuna is currently 18, and has played third base and shortstop in the Nats organization. He spent 2017 with the Gulf Coast Nats, and hit .301 in 48 games.

The final prospect in the trade is Kelvin Gutierrez, who was recently added to the Nats’ 40-man roster. Gutierrez, a 23-year-old third baseman, spent 2017 between the Gulf Coast Nats and single-A Potomac. In 68 total games, he hit .278 with two homers.

While I had to part ways with three prospects in this trade, I acquired a solid outfielder who is under team control for a couple more seasons. If the Nats acquire Castellanos in real life, he could be a great fit in the outfield and make an already potent lineup even better.

Signing Pat Neshek

Mid-season acquisition Brandon Kintzler did a fantastic job in the back-end of the Nats’ bullpen in 2017, but he is now a free agent. Kintzler will likely be pitching elsewhere in 2018 because he was an All-Star closer with the Minnesota Twins in 2017, so someone will recruit him to be their closer. However, the Nats already have Sean Doolittle as closer, so they cannot offer this.

If Kintzler departs, the Nats will have a need for another late-inning reliever to complement Doolittle and Ryan Madson. In order to fill this need, I signed veteran reliever Pat Neshek to a two-year deal worth $12 million.

Neshek spent 2017 between the Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies, and had an excellent season, despite being 37 years old. Coors Field is also arguably the most difficult ballpark to pitch in, yet he succeeded.

In 2017, Neshek pitched to a 1.59 ERA in 71 appearances, which is dominant. He may be old for a pitcher, but his unorthodox submarine delivery allows him to remain successful.

If the Nats sign Neshek, he can primarily pitch the seventh inning and set things up for Madson and Doolittle. This formula worked wonderfully for the Nats in 2017, and they should attempt to use it again in 2018.

Neshek would also serve as a great veteran presence for the Nats’ younger relievers, such as Koda Glover, Enny Romero, and Wander Suero. He has been in the majors for 11 seasons, and has been extremely successful.

A two-year deal may seem like too much for a 37-year-old reliever, but Neshek has defied Father Time and remained successful with his unorthodox submarine delivery.

Signing Matt Albers

While Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle received most of the attention in the bullpen, Matt Albers quietly put together an excellent season. After getting released in Spring Training and re-signing on a minor league deal, Albers had the best season of his career in 2017.

When all was said and done, Albers pitched to a 1.62 ERA in 63 games, and even picked up the first two saves of his career. He does not exactly look the part, but he was absolutely dominant with the Nats.

Unfortunately, Albers is now a free agent and may be pitching elsewhere in 2018. The Nats should want to bring him back after his phenomenal 2017 season, so I signed him to a one-year deal worth $3 million. I also included a club option for a second year at the same rate with a $500 thousand buyout.

If the Nats sign Albers to this contract in real life, he could prove to be a bargain once again and return for 2019 as well. However, there is not too much risk on the Nats’ end. If he regresses and struggles in 2018, they only paid him $3 million and can decline the 2019 option.

Albers is coming off of one of the best seasons of his career, and should absolutely be brought back in 2018.

Trading Drew Ward and Taylor Gushue for Yangervis Solarte

Howie Kendrick served as somewhat of a utility player for the Nats in 2017, playing first base, second base, left field, and right field. However, he is now a free agent and the Nats could use another player with defensive versatility.

In order to fill this need, I traded for Yangervis Solarte. Solarte, a 30-year-old infielder, has put together a solid four-year career so far between the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres. While he is not spectacular, he is consistently good and provides lots of defensive versatility.

Throughout his four-year career, he owns a slash line of .267/.327/.419, which is not bad for a depth player. If the Nats were to acquire Solarte, he would likely serve as a back-up infielder along with Wilmer Difo.

While Solarte is primarily a second baseman, he also played first base, shortstop, and third base in 2017. This defensive versatility would give Dave Martinez some much-appreciated flexibility.

In order to acquire Solarte, I had to part ways with prospects Drew Ward and Taylor Gushue. Ward is a 23-year-old third baseman who spent 2017 playing for double-A Harrisburg. In 121 games, he hit .235 with 20 homers.

In addition to Ward, catching prospect Taylor Gushue would be heading to San Diego. Gushue is 23 as well, and is coming off of a decent 2017 season. In 95 games between single-A Potomac and double-A Harrisburg, he hit .236 with 18 homers. However, he is somewhat expendable because the Nats also have Pedro Severino and Raudy Read in their farm system.

If the Nats acquire Solarte in real life, he would serve as a solid back-up infielder and pinch-hitter.

Signing Lucas Duda

The Nats had a fantastic bench in 2017, led by back-up first baseman Adam Lind. However, he will likely be playing elsewhere in 2018, so the Nats must acquire a new back-up first baseman.

In order to fill this hole, I signed Lucas Duda to a two-year deal worth $8 million. Duda, a 31-year-old first baseman, has put together a respectable eight-year career between the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays.

The Nats are pretty familiar with Duda, considering he was with their division rival Mets from 2010-2017. He has not been great as a starter, but would serve as a solid back-up capable of starting if necessary.

Duda also provides a decent amount of postseason experience since he made a trip to the World Series in 2015. While it is not as much as other options, such as Matt Adams, it would still be beneficial.

If the Nats sign Duda in real life, he would serve as a solid back-up first baseman and pinch-hitter. He could also fill in long-term if Ryan Zimmerman is unable to remain healthy, which has often been the case in recent years.

Lind set the bar high for back-up first basemen, and Duda likely would not quite live up to those standards, but he would still be a solid back-up.

Trading Nick Raquet for Stephen Vogt

Considering Matt Wieters is coming off of the worst season of his career, both offensively and defensively, the Nats are going to be shopping for a catcher this off-season. Jose Lobaton is also a free agent, so they have a definite need for a catcher, whether it’s a back-up or a new starter.

In order to acquire another catcher, I traded pitching prospect Nick Raquet to the Milwaukee Brewers for Stephen Vogt. Vogt, a 33-year-old catcher, spent 2017 between the Oakland A’s and the Brewers, and put together a decent season.

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In 99 total games, Vogt owned a .233/.285/.423 slash line to go with 12 homers. While these are not great numbers, they are not bad for a back-up.

Vogt also offers a bit of defensive versatility. He is primarily a catcher, but he can also play first base and could be a corner outfielder in a pinch.

The fact that Vogt has played most of his career in Oakland could also benefit the Nats, since he caught Madson and Doolittle a lot. If they enjoyed working with Vogt, a reunion may help keep them happy and performing well.

If the Nats acquire Vogt, he could serve as a solid platoon partner with Wieters. Wieters is coming off of the worst season of his career, but a lighter workload may help him return to form.

By acquiring Vogt, I had to part ways with pitching prospect Nick Raquet. Raquet, a 21-year-old lefty, was a third round pick in the 2017 draft and spent the season with the Gulf Coast League Nats and short season single-A Auburn. In 12 starts, he pitched to a 2.36 ERA.

Next: Alex Avila a great catching target

With the Winter Meetings coming up next week, lots of rumors are sure to emerge about the Nats. We’ll have to keep an eye out and see how realistic our simulation turned out to be.

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