We dust off the old eight-ball and see what is in store for the Washington Nationals. The new year promises to be climactic.
The Washington Nationals have reached 2018.
As we all pass into the new year, it is time again to yank the racked eight-ball off the top shelf of the closet past the three boxes of Uno cards, the Monopoly game your brother flipped off the card table during the last snow storm and those ugly sweaters your mother thinks are funny. (With sleeves longer than the last sentence.)
Let’s see what it says, shall we?
“Bet on Sonny Jurgensen beating out Billy Kilmer for the Redskins QB job.”
Wow, that ball has been in storage a long time. Anything more recent?
“Despite the rumors, the Short’s will not move the Senators to Dallas.”
Okay, that is the right sport, but before I was born by a few months. Anything on the 2018 baseball season?
“Does not compute. Ask about the Redskins.”
But this article is about predicting the future for the Nats.
“Joe Gibbs will be a great hire for Washington. Riggins will love him.”
Nothing on baseball?
“Frank Howard will hit home runs.”
How many?
“My memory is hazy, ask again later.”
Fine.
As we place the cracked eight-ball back on the dusty shelf, let’s play Uno instead. Between the four decks up here, one must be complete. While we throw a good deck together, here are five predictions about the Nats in 2018.
Although the cracked eight-ball cannot get past 1983, we can. And be as accurate. Anyway, Happy New Year from your buddies at District on Deck.
NATS WIN NL EAST
Okay, this one seems cheap now.
As the Nats search for their third National League East championship in a row, they start the year in a division already weak. The Miami Marlins stole the blue lights from your local K-Mart for a going out of busi…fire sale for the ages. Up in Queens, the New York Mets cleaned house and stood pat.
Although the Philadelphia Phillies have spent some of their millions and the Atlanta Braves continue to feature prospects, neither team on paper are poised to cut the 20-game margin from last year into anything resembling a race. Yes, both are better, but need everything to go right to challenge Washington.
The Mets can contend if their starters remain healthy, but their 2015 World Series run feels longer than three years ago.
Conventional wisdom said last year the Mets and Nats were even going into the season. This season, you could say the margin between Washington and anyone else is 15 games at a minimum. The funny thing about conventional wisdom is it is often wrong.
Do not be surprised if either Philly or Atlanta hang in for a while. You cannot say in good faith Washington is 15-20 games better in January.
STEPHEN STRASBURG WINS HIS CY
The best pitcher on the staff after the All-Star break last year, Stephen Strasburg is ready to continue.
His decision to ditch the windup last spring paid off in spades. By simplifying his delivery, Strasburg excelled. When you add his two tremendous starts in the NL Divisional Series, you get the pitcher everyone hoped for.
Now that Strasburg figured how to pitch—that is not an insult as it takes time to mature from a thrower into a pitcher—he takes the next step in shutting down opposition hitters. His mix of pitches is perfect. He has a better understanding of what to throw when.
If the cramps plaguing him throughout the summer are under control, there is no reason Strasburg cannot start 33 games and clear 210 innings. Because the division should be easy, along with Max Scherzer, the pressure to push should be low. If the back end of the bullpen continues their success, there will be less stress on all the starters.
Yes, he must win 17 and stay healthy. However, the change in approach worked. He solved his inner puzzle which will pay dividends going forward.
Scherzer will continue to punish hitters and top 250 strikeouts again, but Strasburg has the better year. A nice problem to have.
DANIEL MURPHY MOVES ON
A combination of a contract costing too much in later years along with a steady season from Wilmer Difo means the Nats will pass on Daniel Murphy after 2018.
This is not the same situation as Murphy and the Mets had, but Difo showing he is ready to play everyday and handle the load at second base and in the lineup.
Murphy will continue to hammer the Mets and contend for an elusive batting title. On this massive open market after the season, he should get $20-$22 from a contender. Whether the Nats chase depends on Difo.
If you figure Difo contributes with sporadic playing time and can pinch hit successfully, then financial pressures give him the second base nod for 2019. Washington will give him ample opportunities to earn the job or show off his trade value in the future.
Without a designated hitter, there is no other position to place Murphy. A healthy Ryan Zimmerman stays at first because of the rule.
You could have a situation where Murphy stays for the same money, but that is a huge assumption. The two seasons in DC make his value increase. Unless Difo takes a huge step backwards, it is hard to see Washington holding on to both.
NATS ADVANCE!
This is the year the National League Championship Series comes to Nationals Park.
Washington cannot possibly be as snake bit by injuries as they were the last two seasons in October. You saw what a healthy Strasburg could do in the playoffs, now add a healthy Bryce Harper into the mix.
Although the Los Angeles Dodgers are the other closest thing to a sure lock in the NL, the Central division gives all the appearances of a three-way dog fight between the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. The Nats should get the survivor while Los Angeles gets the Wild Card winner.
What should make you hopeful this year is different sits in left field.
The return of Adam Eaton is huge. It is as if they traded for him again without giving up anyone this time. Sure, you cannot predict injuries. But, a healthy Eaton and Harper beat the Cubs last year.
Do not say Harper was recovered by Game 1. He needed another week of games before the 2017 NLDS.
Will a win in the 2018 NLDS get them into the World Series? If it is the Dodgers in the way that is a tough task. Both teams are championship caliber.
We will leave the prediction at the NLCS.
HARPER STAYS
Get used to the endless supply of rumors and daily parsing of real estate transactions for the immediate Chicagoland area.
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- Washington Nationals Re-Sign RHP Erasmo Ramirez
It used to be the ultimate intrusion to go through someone’s trash. For Bryce Harper’s sake, you hope his search engine history is well protected.
Ever since the young man was drafted by the Nats, his day of decision has ticked at an uncomfortable pace. Well, boys and girls, the hour is here.
Regardless of his decision, Harper will make the best one for him. There is nothing left to chance. The San Diego Padres are not waiving hundreds of millions for him to take.
If you were to go to his hometown of Las Vegas to make a wager, here are a couple things to remember. This is a two-horse race between the Cubs and Nats. The Yankees trade for Stanton makes them a dark horse. It is unclear if the Dodgers will offer the right amount. Philadelphia is not contending in 2019.
You get the sense both sides want a deal done. If Washington offers seven-years for $280 million, it will difficult for Harper to say no. Throw in an opt-out after three years, and you virtually get checkmate.
Harper staying Washington is not a given. But, neither is him leaving.