Washington Nationals: Handicapping the race for 5th starter

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The Washington Nationals find themselves in a four-way race for the fifth starter. Who breaks out to win? Or, is there a surprise in store?

In the last month before the 2018 season starts for the Washington Nationals, many questions are off the board.

The club has a new manager and coaching staff. Brandon Kintzler returns to solidify a deep bullpen. Matt Adams fills Adam Lind’s role on the bench. Adam Eaton will play left and lead off.

However, two questions remain on the table heading into the pre-season. Who shares catching duties with Matt Wieters? And, who wins the fifth starter position in West Palm Beach?

Although Pedro Severino is the presumptive other catcher, the race for pitcher is wide open.

Unless there is another twist in the road we cannot see, the six weeks of Grapefruit League fun turn into a four-way horse race with no clear favorite. But, unlike last season’s race for closer, the need to have this wrapped by the time Washington heads to Cincinnati on March 29th is not urgent.

Yes, you want to start a new season with all the puzzle pieces in place. The difference between the two auditions comes with Washington’s position within the National League East. They are the sperm whale sitting in a goldfish pond.

Unless Cinderella owns a pair of glass slippers with a Philadelphia Phillies logo monogrammed in sequins, the Nats will win the division with ease. (Braves and Mets slippers supplied by request, Marlins footwear will appear in their home run sculpture or a Derek Jeter gift bag.)

Although modern scheduling requires five starters, logic dictates the role can remain open.

Still, we have an honest-to-goodness race and roster spots to settle. Who leaves Florida with the job?

THE FIELD

It is possible Washington either trades for or signs a starter in free agency. If they reach outside the organization, it will be to upgrade the overall staff. But, this is where it gets tricky.

Already over the competitive balance tax by an estimated $7 million, any high salary the Nats take will plunge them deeper into tax purgatory. Also, adding millions in payroll now deeply affects what they can do around the trade deadline without dumping bad salary themselves.

Still, if there is a prudent deal for either a Lance Lynn or Jake Arrieta, Washington will consider. Either of them in the three spot is better than any of the candidates at five. Again, money is the upgrade issue, not lack of interest.

The Nats may find over the next month to invite a few more pitchers to camp with the lure of a minor-league deal and an incentive-laden contract if they make the club. Rotation depth is an asset. The last thing Washington needs is a repeat of last season where injuries ate through depth.

All these events are plausible, but not probable. You might see another name or two invited to audition, but a bigger name coming is tough to see with Washington’s budget issues.

ERICK FEDDE

The Nats were not fair to Erick Fedde last year.

On track to get his first cup of coffee in Washington last fall, the front office converted him into a reliever during the height of the Nats bullpen issues before converting back into a starter. Fedde earned more than a short stint in the majors, but the shifting of roles killed his effectiveness.

Settled into a starting position again, instead of running him on a Syracuse-DC shuttle, the Nats figure he starts the year in Triple-A. It is important for Fedde to pitch every fifth game. When Lucas Giolito and A.J. Cole suffered from constant trips back and forth, it hurt their confidence.

Giolito was so spooked by the pressure he was traded. Washington cannot afford to treat Fedde the same way.

On the plus side, Fedde turned heads last spring over a couple starts. His fastball had speed, but not life. You could see why the Nats love his potential, but he needed fine tuning.

The same could be said when Fedde got the promotion in August. He is on the cusp of good things, but his 2.152 WHIP and 9.39 ERA over 15.1 innings tell a different story.

Until he masters an out pitch, Fedde will struggle in the bigs. But, with confidence, he can win the job if he shows patience and baffles hitters. Next year, they would bounce him between levels. This year, the guess is he starts in a teaching environment.

TOMMY MILONE

The weakest of the four names on the list, Tommy Milone has the most to pitch for.

A former Nats first-round draft pick, Milone has the rare chance to make the team with the player he was traded for. We can hope he swaps a few stories with Gio Gonzalez. At nearly 31, this is not Milone’s last chance, but father time is fumbling for the car keys to drive him home.

This past season was a disaster. In stints with the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers, Milone posted a 1-3 record with a 7.63 ERA and 1.634 WHIP. Over 48.1 innings, he surrendered 15 home runs and a 12.1 H/9 ratio.

Milone’s odds are long. In this golden day and age of power pitching, he is a throw back to a contact pitcher who lives in the strike zone. A terrible combination in today’s baseball.

Back where he started, Milone has the chance to rebuild his career. A good spring lands him a job somewhere. A great one earns him a rotation spot in Washington. He provides depth for the Nats in the minors as a ready talent to fill holes if needed.

You can take a risk with Milone over Fedde because you are not risking ruining Fedde’s confidence out of the gate. If Milone implodes, you are not risking anything long term.

A low-risk move that might pay a medium reward.

EDWIN JACKSON

Washington surprised a few recently when they invited Edwin Jackson to West Palm Beach.

Last year, Jackson filled the fifth starter role after Joe Ross was lost to Tommy John surgery. For six weeks, Jackson pitched well. He ate innings and kept Washington in games. A solid mix of pitches along with movement unsettled opposition batters.

Then September came and the gas gauge hit empty. With an ERA close to 10 for the month, Jackson became hittable. He pitched himself off the playoff roster and the team.

Yet, Jackson gets another chance to earn a rotation spot. He is your typical back end starter. When good, he can win you games and not overtax a bullpen. Capable of pitching seven innings, he can dictate tempo and confuse hitters.

Or, he gets lit up like the national Christmas Tree and wear down his own team. Some nights you have it and others require a third-inning shower.

Jackson hopes to deliver 30 starts and between 160-180 innings. Those are plausible targets. Since, unless injuries dominate 2018, he would not stat a playoff game, his record and ERA are not crucial. Anything under 4.50 is a bonus.

But, he is not the favorite. Unlike Milone, he is a better Syracuse insurance policy. However, Jackson thinks he can pitch in the majors all year. He need not wow people. But, with everything even, he wins.

A.J. COLE

If any pitcher is losing sleep over Jackson’s signing, it is A.J. Cole.

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This is his best, and perhaps the last, chance for Cole to establish himself as a permanent starter in Washington. While flopping between Syracuse and the Nats last season, he did little to clarify his future.

His ceiling is as a fifth starter. He will give the Nats opportunities to win, but struggles with overall command. In Syracuse, he was terrible. In 18 starts with the Chiefs, he posted a 5.88 ERA and 1.746 WHIP over 93 innings.

Cole has never dominated the International League. In four partial seasons, only in 2015 did he toss more innings than hits allowed. But, his control overall is better. Although his 2.8 BB/9 rate is nothing to write home about over 386.2 innings, it is better than his MLB ratio of 3.8 over 99.2.

On paper, Jackson is the better option. Remember, we are talking a fifth starter.

But, Cole has a chip on his shoulder. If he cannot win this audition, you must wonder what role he can fit into. The competition is not strong. Fedde’s ceiling is mid-rotation or a two if all goes well. Still, that is the future.

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With pressure comes responsibility. You know Cole feels it. Now is his chance to turn it into a positive. He has the potential to be this year’s version of Michael Taylor. But, he must pitch this spring as if his career depends on it. Because, at least for Washington, it might.

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