Washington Nationals: Predicting the 2018 Opening Day lineup

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With six weeks until the Washington Nationals open their 2018 season, here is the first crack at predicting their Opening Day lineup. Hope your eraser is handy.

Opening Day for the Washington Nationals is right around the corner.

Major League Baseball, as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, starts everyone on March 29. Although games outside the United States started earlier on the calendar, this is the earliest mass start in the game’s history. The Nats get their lone visit out of the way to Great American Ballpark to open against the Cincinnati Reds.

With new manager Dave Martinez, expect a few new wrinkles in lineup construction. Will he bat the pitcher eighth? Where will he place Trea Turner in the order? Will he follow the latest data trends and bat Bryce Harper, as the team’s best hitter, second?

The next six weeks in Florida will shed the most light where Martinez wants to go. He has already said Adam Eaton will leadoff. Where he goes from there depends on how well the rest of the offense meshes together along with Daniel Murphy’s knee.

Although Murphy is walking okay, he remains questionable to start the season. The good news is he will return early in the year if he is not ready from the start.

So, with that caveat out of the way, here is an early projection of the lineup for Opening Day with FanGraphs’ projections for the season. They use three different sources for numbers and should be used as a guide and not as absolute. The Steamer, Depth Charts and projections from smart fans are used.

Remember, the last two Nats squads set the record for most runs scored over a 162-game season. There is not a ton of tinkering to do.

With Murphy unsure, he is not in the lineup, but earns a slide at the end because he is their starting second baseman when healthy. So, here is a possible look at Martinez’s first counting lineup.

LF ADAM EATON

.284-.290 Avg. 11-12 HR 54-76 RBI .363-.376 OBP

Eaton is rightly listed in the leadoff hole, at least to start the year. If those on-base percentages are close to accurate, you understand why. Imagine National League pitchers sweating through those plate appearances.

The RBI disparity comes from where he hits in the lineup. It is hard to drive in runs with the pitcher’s spot most night before yours. The batting average and OBP are in line with his numbers with the Chicago White Sox.

In his second season in Washington, Eaton’s star will rise if he can produce these numbers. His run projection ranges from 80 to 88 and that is low. His last two years in Chicago, he scored 98 and 91 times respectfully. If he reaches base at projected levels, a 100-run season looks inevitable. The Nats offense is that strong.

A move to the corner from center is solid on the defensive front. It will be interesting how much rest he gets over the course of the season as his knee fully heals. At 29, Eaton is in the prime of his career, but a new position and recovering knee will lead to early hesitation.

The Nats lacked a spark plug from the one-hole from Turner. Eaton’s return should restore it.

3B ANTHONY RENDON

.282-288 Avg. 21-23 HR 79-85 RBI .375-.382 OBP

Where Anthony Rendon hits this year will supply an endless array of articles.

The trend of placing your best hitter in the two-spot gained steam last year as Giancarlo Stanton crushed balls all over Miami. The Marlins lineup was decent making it hard to pitch around him

But, Harper struggles hitting second. With Jayson Werth gone, the best protection comes from Rendon and his ability to make pitchers grind though their arsenal. Rendon’s ability to draw walks and let Harper see a variety of pitches gives him the nod at two.

Perhaps later in the year, we see Eaton slide down here with Turner and his base stealing ability leading off. For now, moving Rendon from sixth to second gives the power part needed protection while giving Eaton a chance to steal if he wants.

Watch the last couple weeks of Grapefruit League action where Rendon is. A true hitter, anywhere in the middle of the order works. But, his ability to raise pitch counts makes him strong as the two-hole batter.

Those projected numbers are outstanding. If true Harper, Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman will get to the plate with plenty of RBI chances. Another year flirting with 40 doubles works too.

RF BRYCE HARPER

.302-309 Avg. 35-38 HR 99-126 RBI .416-.418 OBP

Although those numbers do not scream MVP, they are close. The key for Harper is staying healthy, something he struggled with the last two seasons.

If you go back to his 2015 MVP season, you see he walked 124 times with only 15 called intentional. He must draw around the same this year if he hopes to win another one in his contract year.

The reason he fits better at three than two is his ability to drive in runs. With Eaton, along with a combo of Rendon and Turner ahead, Harper will get his chances. Hard to fathom a player of his talents has yet to break 100 RBI in a single season.

That should change in 2018. Harper hits the peak of his career in the best shape of his career. Unless he signs an in-season extension, his numbers this year will dictate his price this fall. For him, the stakes could not get higher.

So, unless he thrives elsewhere this spring, third is Harper’s best fit. With a healthy Zimmerman and Murphy behind him, pitching around Harper is almost as dangerous as throwing him strikes. Remember, the MVP season his OBP was .460. Anything close to that earns a second and makes Washington a prohibitive favorite in the playoffs.

1B RYAN ZIMMERMAN

.269-.273 Avg. 24-26 HR 74-83 RBI .339-.347 OBP

Remember, we are assuming Murphy misses the start of the season recovering from his knee surgery. When he returns, slide Zimmerman down to the fifth-hole where he was most of last year.

Although the projections drop from 2017’s lofty heights, those numbers over 120 games are ones the Nats take in a heartbeat. The key for Zimmerman is working on the launch angle and keeping his rockets in the gap and off the ground.

Zimmerman’s bad 2016 plays a part of those bad percentage projections. After hitting .303 with a .358 OBP, there is no reason the batting average should dip 30-35 points. Anything around .285 will make everyone happy.

With Matt Adams in the fold, and Murphy capable playing first, the question this year is playing time. In 2017, Zimmerman appeared in 144 games. If healthy, 135-145 is about right. He must apply what he learned last year and use it again.

A quiet leader, his influence in the clubhouse grows with his experience and losing Werth. But, as his big Sunday Night Baseball home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers showed, his leadership also stems from big hits in the clutch. As the baseball world zeroes in on Harper, the pressure is off Zimmerman.

No matter where he hits, Zimmerman is ready.

SS TREA TURNER

.298-.299 Avg. 16-18 HR 65-74 RBI .347-.348 OBP 48-60 SB

You can make a case for Turner hitting first, second, sixth or ninth if Martinez experiments with the pitcher at eight. Again, if Murphy is ready by Opening Day, slide Turner to six.

His power numbers are better than Wilmer Difo’s and his batter’s eye tops Michael Taylor, giving him the predicted nod batting fifth. Once Murphy becomes a regular, watch for the experimenting to begin.

But, if Turner uses better plate discipline this spring, do not be surprised if he hits second from the start. Yes, with Harper up immediately, it puts a huge damper on Turner’s speed game. But, in an ideal world, he is a leadoff hitter who will steal 65-80 bases while swatting 20 home runs.

Expect Martinez to ease him up the lineup as the season passes. Turner has a tendency to press too hard at the plate. The playoffs last fall were exhibit “A.”

An early season swap of Rendon and Turner’s spots takes pressure off. It is important in his third season to let the game come to him and not force tempo and mistakes. Yes, the fractured wrist stopped his momentum. This is the first year he should play over 100 regular season games.

Using Turner later in the lineup gives his speed a chance to shine. A rare element turning walks and infield hits into doubles. But, a strong spring moves him up the chain. Pencil him in at five with an eraser handy.

2B WILMER DIFO

.260 Avg. 3-4 HR 23-24 RBI .311 OBP

The projections are not kind to players with limited experience and Difo is no exception.

Last year, when filling in for Turner and Murphy, Difo was excellent. In the outfield, he was an adventure while he disappointed off the bench. Considered the second baseman of the future, perhaps as soon as 2019, Washington hopes Difo can run with the super-utility label this year.

We know, with Murphy’s knee injury, Difo gets the bulk of Grapefruit League playing time at second. However, his on-base skills are not strong enough to bat higher in the lineup. As long as Murphy recovers, Difo will hit sixth or seventh.

With the injury rash of 2017, Difo played in 124 games last year. This year, if everyone stays healthy, he should get in around 80. He can spell Turner at short and play third if needed. White flags will fly around Nationals Park if he stands in centerfield.

Difo must make the most of his opportunity. Although Grapefruit League numbers mean nothing, he has to show Martinez his potential. If he meshes well with Turner as a double play combination, the better off his future is in Washington.

As the season wears on, Difo will get chances to let Murphy rest. It is in those games where he must shine.

If Murphy is healthy to start the year, Difo watches from the bench.

CF MICHAEL TAYLOR

.245-257 Avg. 16-21 HR 56-67 RBI .306-.317 OBP

What a difference a year makes.

Michael Taylor made the most of his time replacing the injured Eaton in centerfield and comes to camp as the starter.

The projections above are too conservative. As the year went on, Taylor shortened his swing and made better contact. Yes, he strikes out too much. So do half the hitters in baseball. If you are wondering, the projections this year range from 141 to 164.

Better suited hitting eighth, the weakness of Matt Wieters forces Taylor higher. He is not an automatic out and can swipe a bag if he needs too. If he continues to play the smart baseball displayed last year, you can write his name in pen in the lineup.

Watch his sing this spring. Short, broom-like cuts made him a better hitter last year. His defensive arm and range are strong enough to move Eaton over to left. If Taylor shows the same confidence, an All-Star birth at home is possible.

If he cuts down on the strikeouts, you could see him hitting sixth as the year moves on. For now, seventh is his ideal spot. If we see the pitcher hitting eighth, Taylor is a candidate for batting ninth in the extra leadoff spot. The sky is the limit if he can improve his eye and draw walks.

C MATT WIETERS

.238-.246 Avg. 9-13 HR 37-49 RBI .293-.308 OBP

Sorry, fans of J.T. Realmuto and Jonathan Lucroy. Wieters holds the best chance of being the starting catcher on Opening Day.

Wieters dropped 25 pounds this off-season on a healthy diet. Overuse last year led to second-half fatigue, and he is trying to avoid that again. Even with Harper possibly hitting free agency, the individual pressure to perform is higher with Wieters. He wants one more big contract.

Unless he wows the staff in West Palm Beach, Wieters will hit eighth in the traditional no-hitting catching spot. Whether Pedro Severino or Miguel Montero is the backup, on this day it will not matter.

We forget how well Wieters handles his pitchers. If you are looking for a reason Gio Gonzalez found his groove, look no further than behind the plate. As the on-field coach, Wieters is top notch.

At the plate? Not so much.

A sharp drop in production triggered Wieters to remain in Washington to fill out his contract. At 31, he hopes for another decent pay day with a chance to be a designated hitter in the future. In an alternate universe, perhaps catching with the Nats again in 2019.

For that to happen, his workload must drop and Wieters has to re-find his way at the plate. Last April, he hit over .300. When feeling recharged, he is productive.

Perhaps the combination of weight loss and a solid backup will boost Wieters. The Nats need him if they make a deep run.

P MAX SCHERZER

15-17 W 7-9 L 207-211 IP 2.85-3.38 ERA 257-262 K

Max Scherzer grunted and stalked his way through his first spring bullpen session. By the time we reach Cincinnati, he will wear a path around the mound in West Palm Beach.

No one player was more upset after Game 5 than Scherzer. When the bell rings, he will chomp to answer it.

With Joe Ross expected back by the end of the season, and the Nats a healthy NL East favorite, watch to see if they experiment with a six-man starting rotation. If so, those above projections are rosy. But, it is more important to have gas in the tank for October than throwing extra pitches in meaningless September games.

Although arm endurance is not an issue, nagging injuries hampered Scherzer after the All-Star break. Between line drives off legs and a balky neck, the last few months were uncomfortable. Martinez has his hands full letting Scherzer go all out and keeping something in reserve.

You know Martinez will try hitting his starters eighth. Analysis says it leads to better lineup production and his mentor, Joe Maddon, uses it with the Chicago Cubs. When Murphy is at full strength, expect to see it.

Looking for batting predictions? Not even FanGraphs goes there.

BONUS DANIEL MURPHY

.311-.312 Avg. 16-19 HR 72-83 RBI .367-368 OBP 33-39 2B

If things continue progressing well for Murphy, he could start on Opening Day. Slot him behind Harper and move Zimmerman and Turner down one slot.

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A lot will depend on how soon he can get into game action and how the knee feels after full baseball activities. The micro-fracture was not discovered until after the Nats season ended and recovery from his surgery puts Murphy healthy early in the season.

Once he is, the Nationals offense will be in full flight.

A bonus for Murphy, as he starts a contract year, is the addition of old hitting coach Kevin Long. With the New York Mets, Long developed Murphy into the student of hitting he is today while demolishing the Cubs with home runs during the 2015 NL Championship Series.

The above projections are unkind to Murphy. If he plays the 140-150 games expected, add a few more homers and doubles. In his two years in Washington, he has yet to hit under .322. There is no reason to expect anything lower.

The Long-Murphy combination should lead to higher production. Watch to see if Murphy draws more walks and chooses his pitches better. His 52 walks last year was a career-high. Although he will never approach Harper’s walk rate, anything over 60 is a tremendous boost to a lethal offense.

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