Washington Nationals ace pitcher Max Scherzer is the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. But where should you look to target him in fantasy drafts?
Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer has arguably been the best pitcher in the MLB the last few years. In his transition to the National League, he has been remarkable.
In his three years with the Nationals, Scherzer has made the All-Star roster three times. He has won two Cy Young awards, posted a 2.76 ERA and an 11.3 K/9 ratio.
In the eyes of many 2017 is one of, if not his best, season as a professional. Scherzer and his blue and brown eyes led the National League with 268 punch-outs, a WHIP of 0.902, and a hits-per-nine innings ratio of 5.7.
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By all accounts, the 33-year-old is only getting better with age. But will regression start to emerge? And how does Scherzer stack up among the rest of the league’s elite?
To start, let’s take a look at the starting pitchers worthy of a first or second round draft choice. And for the sake of simplicity, assume this is a standard twelve team league playing for categories.
Remember, the categories for pitchers (in ESPN standard leagues) are wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.
Most players will agree on Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber and Chris Sale, in one order or another, being the four most worthy pitchers of a high draft selection.
While Scherzer dominated in the strikeout department, he wasn’t as dominant as Sale, who topped the 300 mark last season. Sale led the league by striking out 308 batters. Kluber finished three strikeouts behind Scherzer with 265. Kershaw tallied 202 in 27 starts.
Regarding the outlook for 2018, Fangraphs.com’s “Steamer” projections tab Scherzer with the top mark of 257 strikeouts, followed by Sale with 241.
Another category that is worth diving into is WHIP. Every team knows that these four pitchers are not giving up hits easily. One area where an edge can be found is in walks. Last season, Kershaw led our four pitchers in BB/9 (1.54). Scherzer finished last with 2.47, a significant margin behind third-place Chris Sale (1.81).
To go one step further, players can look at the K/BB stat. Among pitchers with at least 26 starts last season, Josh Tomlin led the league in K/BB (7.79) while Kluber (7.36), Sale (7.16), and Kershaw (6.73) finished two through four. Scherzer’s elevated walk rate pushed him down to seventh with a 4.87 K/BB rate.
When trying to pick apart these four pitchers, one will have to dig extraordinarily deep to find significant differences between them. In fantasy baseball drafts, players can’t go wrong with selecting any of these pitchers.
With that said, Scherzer is better suited as an early second round pick than a first-round pick. For some players, Scherzer is a worthwhile investment in the late first round, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
The rationale here is that Kershaw is still, well, Kershaw. If healthy, he is the best pitcher on the planet. He should be drafted ahead of Scherzer, and the only pitcher selected in the first round. After him, Scherzer, Kluber, and Sale are toss-ups.
But if a player has their eyes locked on Scherzer, there’s no shame in picking him. He is a three-time Cy Young award winner for a reason!
But those people should remember that waiting for him could bring added value. Locking in a first-round quality bat while risking Scherzer falling into the second round is a strategy to consider. The worst-case scenario here is the player loses out on Scherzer and “settles” for Kluber or Sale.
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Maximizing value is critical in fantasy baseball. And waiting to draft Scherzer is a great way to do so.