Washington Nationals: 5 x-factors for Daniel Murphy in 2018

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Washington Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy is entering a fateful contract year. Here are five x-factors for his big season.

The regular season is almost upon us, but 2018 will not be a typical year for the Washington Nationals. In fact, it may be the biggest season in franchise history.

Last October, the Nats suffered yet another early postseason exit. This heartbreak came at the hands of the Chicago Cubs, but it felt all too familiar; a tremendously talented team falling short once again.

Somewhat unexpectedly, the Nats’ latest postseason failure cost Dusty Baker his job. Now, Dave Martinez will be tasked with getting the Nats over the proverbial hump.

At least there won’t be any pressure on Martinez and the Nats, right? Well, not exactly.

The Nats have several high-profile players in contract years. Bryce Harper is the most notable, but Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madson, and Shawn Kelley could all be playing elsewhere this time next year.

Of these impending free agents, Murphy is among the most interesting. He was a late bloomer, finally coming into his own at age-30. Now, he will hit the market once again as a 33-year-old.

Before he hits the market, Murphy has an enormous season to play. He plays an integral role with the Nats, and will likely be a large factor in what they ultimately accomplish. He does not receive Harper-esque attention, but he is every bit as important.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at five x-factors for Murphy in 2018.

Health

Shortly after the Nats were eliminated, they announced that Murphy had been playing with a knee injury that required surgery. He eventually underwent microfracture surgery to repair damage to the articular cartilage in his right knee, which could potentially force him to miss the start of the season.

At WinterFest, Murphy was relying on crutches to get around and sat as much as possible. He no longer needs the crutches, but is still rehabbing.

Now, Murphy is at spring training as a limited participant. He is getting his work in, but most of his drills have been done on his knees. For example, he has been spotted fielding ground balls on his knees and taking one-handed swings off of a tee while on his knees.

Despite the fact that Murphy is still limited, Dave Martinez insists that he will be ready for Opening Day. However, recovery from microfracture surgery typically ranges from six months to a year, which would presumably rule him out for the start of the season.

Regardless of Murphy’s Opening Day status, his knee will be something to keep an eye on throughout the year.

There is no doubt that he can return to full strength, but he may benefit from additional days off. Playing nearly everyday is taxing on any player, but this is especially true of players recovering from surgery.

Murphy’s health is not a major concern, but is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Reuniting with Kevin Long

Murphy has been a solid hitter for his entire career, but was by no means a household name for his first seven major league seasons. He always hit for average, even batting .320 in his second full season, but never had much power. Before 2015, he was averaging just eight homers per year.

Then, the Mets signed Kevin Long to be their hitting coach.

Long worked with Murphy to improve his swing, which led to a career-high 14 homers in 2015. The results were evident over the course of the year, but Murphy made vast improvements in the stretch run.

While Murphy produced a solid regular season, it did not even begin to compare to his postseason.

In the first two rounds of the postseason, Murphy crushed seven homers in nine games. The man who was once an above average hitter now appeared elite. He almost singlehandedly carried the Mets to the World Series.

Although Murphy received all of the credit, which is understandable since he is the one in the box, he attributed his transformation to Long.

Now, Long has been hired as the Nats’ hitting coach. Murphy has made it clear that he wanted the Nats to hire Long throughout his two seasons with the Nats, but his hopes have finally become a reality.

Without Long, Murphy has continued to rake. He has hit .334 with 48 homers in two seasons with the Nats, leading them to two consecutive division titles. It’s safe to say that Murphy has done alright without Long.

However, now that Murphy and Long are reunited, Murphy could produce his best season yet. With his newfound swing and favorite hitting coach, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

When Murphy begins the season is up in the air, but, whenever that is, he should produce yet another MVP-caliber campaign.

Contract year distractions

Every major league season is a grind, but contract years are a different beast. The player has to answer questions about their future, even though not even they are sure of what will happen. They may also feel additional pressure to perform, in order to maximize their value.

Murphy’s contract year may fly under the radar because he shares it with Bryce Harper, but it could still make a difference.

Fortunately for the Nats, Murphy will handle it as well as possible. He is a true professional and veteran leader, so there should not be any concern about his demeanor.

Murphy also has not been one to shy away from the spotlight, which will enable him to remain productive in his fateful season. Just look at his 2015 postseason performance and several walkoff hits to see how he handles pressure.

There are a few factors that could hold Murphy back a bit in 2018, such as his health, but the fact that he is in a contract year should not have any bearing on his performance. If anything, it may actually push him to have his best year yet.

Murphy’s future with the Nats is unknown, but he should produce yet another amazing season in 2018.

Defense

Although Murphy is an elite hitter, his defense leaves much to be desired. According to FanGraphs, he had a -15 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in 2017, which ranked last among qualified infielders.

Unfortunately, Murphy has also been trending the wrong way in recent years. His DRS has decreased in each of the last three seasons.

In addition to Murphy’s deteriorating defensive abilities, he may be hurt by his knee surgery in 2018. It would have the biggest impact on his range, but could prevent him from turning around his defensive woes.

Fortunately for Murphy and the Nats, Trea Turner can provide some help up the middle. His range ranks near the top among shortstops, which will allow him to get to balls up the middle that Murphy cannot reach.

Murphy also has Ryan Zimmerman on the other side of him. Zimmerman’s defensive metrics are not great, but that is largely due to his throwing struggles. He has above average range at first base, which will allow him to help Murphy as well.

Between Turner and Zimmerman, Murphy is covered on both sides. The Nats may still be slightly hurt by Murphy’s defense, but it will not make a huge difference.

Murphy is a below average defender, but any team would still love to have him. Despite ranking last among all qualified infielders in DRS in 2017, he still accumulated 4.3 WAR, which was tops among National League second basemen.

The fact that Murphy is so valuable, despite his defensive woes, really speaks to his offensive prowess.

Despite Murphy being a defensive liability, he is a tremendously productive player.

Leadership

Over the course of the 162-game season, veteran leadership can prove to be an enormous asset. There will be low points in the year and teammates may grow tired of each other, but veteran leadership can smooth everything out.

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For the last seven years, Jayson Werth has served as the heart and soul of the Nats’ clubhouse. However, he will not return in 2018.

It is unfair to ask one player to fill Werth’s role, so there will be several veterans contributing to the task. Because of his experience and various leadership qualities, Murphy is a prime candidate to help fill the void.

Murphy is not one to get in a teammate’s face, but he does an excellent job of leading by example. He is one of the hardest workers in the league, which motivates his teammates to follow suit.

With a new coaching staff in place, veteran leadership will be even more important for the Nats in 2018. Dave Martinez is a first-time manager, but having veterans to lean on will contribute to a smooth transition.

2018 may also be the biggest year in franchise history, which could lead to high tensions and additional pressure. It will be up to the veteran leaders to ensure the team remains calm, cool, and collected.

The Nats need veterans to step up in 2018, especially after losing Werth, and Murphy is the perfect man for the job.

Next: Nats' speed kills

Although Murphy’s status for Opening Day and future with the Nats are up in the air, he should produce a phenomenal season. If his first two seasons with the Nats are an indication of what is to come in 2018, he could help bring a parade to South Capitol Street.

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