Washington Nationals: Comparing the Nats to other NL contenders
Lineup
When breaking down each team’s offense, I used RotoChamp.com’s projected lineups. I also used Fangraphs’ projections for total offensive output for the entire season.
Washington led the NL in OPS last season, and Fangraphs expects that number to actually jump in 2018 with a full slate of at-bats for Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Michael Taylor. If they can ever get a clean bill of health, the Nationals might have the most formidable lineup in the NL.
The Cubs and Dodgers also form potent groups with plenty of depth one through eight. But the Nationals front the otherworldly Harper with two high-quality leadoff men and support him with two MVP-level batters (plus Ryan Zimmerman, a two-time All-Star). Opposing pitchers are not looking forward to that crew at full strength.
Elsewhere among the contenders, the Giants have plenty of names dotting their lineup; unfortunately, they are all getting long in the tooth. But while the rest of baseball looks to the future, there is something admirable about San Francisco still looking to win today. I’m just not sure if it will work.
The Brewers provide another interesting lineup. Milwaukee has five really talented hitters in Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana, and Ryan Braun. The only problem is four of those guys are outfielders, and there isn’t really another spot to put any of them. The Brewers are working out Braun at first base, but the 34-year-old has never been known for his defense. Barring a late trade, expect manager Craig Counsell to shoehorn all four guys into the lineup on a regular basis with creative platoons and rest days.
Colorado, Arizona, and St. Louis all have nice lineups, but I’m not as excited about them. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are two of the best hitters alive, and they both have effective sidekicks in Charlie Blackmon and A.J. Pollock, but there isn’t a ton of meat on the bone through the rest of the order. I like Marcell Ozuna, but unless Ozuna or Tommy Pham build upon their impressive 2017 seasons, the Cards don’t have that one big-ticket stud who can carry a lineup.
| Team | Proj. OPS |
| Chicago | .801 |
| Colorado | .800 |
| Washington | .795 |
| Los Angeles | .789 |
| St. Louis | .781 |
| Arizona | .775 |
| Milwaukee | .772 |
| San Fran. | .754 |
Rotation
Fangraphs does not love the Nationals starters heading into 2018. The projection system estimates both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg will take small steps back with ERA’s in the low-threes. Further, down the rotation, it hands Gio Gonzalez a 4.07 ERA and Tanner Roark a 4.28 mark. (For what it’s worth, Fangraphs projects A.J. Cole for a 4.88 ERA).
I expect the Nationals’ staff to largely top those marks. It seems reasonable to expect Scherzer and Strasburg to compete for the NL Cy Young award once again. And while Gonzalez will likely take a sizable step back from his unsustainable numbers last year, I believe Roark will revert to his pre-2017 numbers. But if one or two starters go down, it doesn’t look like the Nats will have the starting pitching depth to make up for it.
At the top of the NL, the Cubs and Dodgers certainly have a deeper crop of arms, but they are not without their flaws. Unlike the Nats and Dodgers, Chicago does not have that one top-of-the-line ace. Jon Lester is at best a number two arm at this point in his career, Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks are steady, but unintimidating presences, and Yu Darvish has elite stretches, but does not always possess the consistency.
L.A. supports Clayton Kershaw with a talented core through the rest of the rotation, though there are legitimate injury questions with Rich Hill, Alex Wood, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Kershaw has also missed a considerable amount of time during each of the past two seasons. They are certainly a strong group on Opening Day, but its anyone’s guess who is still standing by October.
| Team | Proj. ERA |
| Los Angeles | 3.57 |
| Chicago | 3.76 |
| Washington | 3.94 |
| St. Louis | 3.94 |
| San Fran. | 4.06 |
| Arizona | 4.13 |
| Milwaukee | 4.53 |
| Colorado | 4.65 |
Bullpen
Relievers’ year-to-year inconsistency makes bullpen projections quite difficult, but here we go anyways.
Chicago has plenty of talented pitchers throughout its ‘pen, and all are capable of getting big outs, but they do lack a frontline closer. President Theo Epstein let Wade Davis walk to the Rockies this offseason and replaced him with righty Brandon Morrow. Morrow was very effective as the Dodgers’ set-up man last year, but has been injury prone and inconsistent over the years. Can he hold up over a full season as he approaches his 34th birthday?
The Dodgers figure to have another nasty pen, even without Morrow. Kenley Jansen is consistently one of the three best relievers in baseball, and the Dodgers always manage to support him with plenty of live arms.
The Brewers and Rockies enter 2018 with two of the more interesting pens in the NL. Milwaukee’s Corey Knebel finished with a 1.78 ERA last year and led the NL with nearly 15 strikeouts per nine innings. Bridging the gap between the starters and Knebel are several interesting arms, including fire-breathing lefty Josh Hader, who threw his fastball over 81 percent of the time in 2017.
Colorado, meanwhile, hopes their bullpen is more than interesting after dumping $106 million on the last three innings of games. Davis was effective in 2017, but not nearly as dominant as he was from 2014-16 with Kansas City. Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Adam Ottavino, and Mike Dunn form a solid set-up crew at their best, but all four have flaws and are over 30 years old. The pieces are there, but it could blow up just as easily.
And in Washington, the Nationals enter the season with one of their more settled bullpens in recent memory. No Drew Storen drama, no major offseason transactions, no spring training closer battles. The Nats figure to ride the Sean Doolittle–Ryan Madson–Brandon Kintzler trio of last season, with a mix of Joaquin Benoit, Enny Romero, Koda Glover, Shawn Kelley, and Sammy Solis filling out the rest of the group. Not necessarily a dynamic crew, but certainly potent enough to survive the regular season crawl and hold down leads in October.
| Team | Proj. ERA |
| Chicago | 3.60 ERA |
| Los Angeles | 3.66 ERA |
| San Fran. | 3.69 ERA |
| St. Louis | 3.82 ERA |
| Washington | 3.90 ERA |
| Milwaukee | 4.02 ERA |
| Arizona | 4.23 ERA |
| Colorado | 4.27 ERA |
Defense
The Nationals did not rate well last season defensively, posting minus-44 defensive runs saved as a group. Aside from Anthony Rendon, Taylor, and Turner, the rest of the team was average at best in the field. Moving a healthy Eaton to left field full-time should help, but the Nats will probably still be middling on defense in 2018.
Los Angeles and Chicago both feature elite defenses with top-notch gloves scattered around the field. In L.A., the Dodgers boast Corey Seager at shortstop, Cody Bellinger at first, and Justin Turner at third, with a bevy of talented outfielders behind them. Chicago can match them step-for-step, with Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo forming one of the best defensive infields in baseball.
Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Arizona also have upper-level defenses that could provide them with a couple extra wins in a potentially tight NL Wild Card race.
San Francisco is the only potential contender who played defense as badly as Washington in 2017. Offseason additions Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen are still decent defenders, but they just add two more aging veterans to a roster already filled with them. Six of the eight projected starters will be over 30 years old on Opening Day, which might kill a pitching staff that struggled in 2017.
Managers
Let’s step off the field and compare managers among the NL playoff contenders. There are some really talented skippers at the top of the National League, starting with the Chicago’s Joe Maddon, who has always extracted the best from his teams. San Francisco’s Bruce Bochy pulls all the right punches in October, and has three World Series rings to show for it.
Dave Roberts guided his Dodgers’ team to the NL pennant last season, and Bud Black was at the helm of the Rockies’ Wild Card berth in his first year with the club.
Arizona’s Torey Lovullo and Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell are both young, up-and-coming managers who effectively blend analytics into their managing styles.
St. Louis fans wanted to ride Mike Matheny out of town last year, but he has still led the Cardinals to four postseason appearances in six seasons, including a World Series berth in 2013. By the way, Matheny would be the most successful manager in Nationals history.
Speaking of Washington, the Nats are once again breaking in a new manager, but at least this time, Davey Martinez comes by way of the well-regarded Maddon. It remains to be seen how he reacts during game situations, though early signs seem positive. And at the very least, Martinez already has the Maddon-esque quirks down pat.
Washington’s roster is fairly straightforward as we approach Opening day. The Nats have a killer lineup, a top-heavy, but talented rotation, and a solid bullpen.
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The Cubs and Dodgers are clearly formidable threats, and will probably enter the season with better World Series odds than Washington. I expect the Cubs to be quite good again as they move past last year’s championship hangover, though their record could be worse than the Nats because of a tough NL Central.
I am (slightly) less bullish on the Dodgers, who have an injury prone rotation and a less established group of stars in the field. Los Angeles will still surely be one of the final teams standing, but it could be a bumpier path to the playoffs than for other upper-echelon teams.
As for the best of the rest, I like what Milwaukee has done with the moves for Yelich and Cain, though the Brewers still appear to be a pitcher away from being a real threat. If Jimmy Nelson returns at full strength this summer, Milwaukee may have a Wild Card team on its hands. St. Louis could also be a surprise contender after the Ozuna heist, but the Cards also have real questions among their starting pitchers after Carlos Martinez.
In the NL West, with a marginally better San Diego club following the Hosmer signing, as well as the juggernaut Dodgers, the NL West could be the best top-to-bottom division in baseball this year. There fight between Arizona, Colorado, and San Francisco should be a bloodbath as they attempt to claw their way back to the postseason.
For now, Washington can stay above the fray. If they stay focused, the Nationals could grab the top seed in the National League.
Next: Gio Gonzalez biggest pitching x-factor
Statistics and projections courtesy of Fangraphs.