Washington Nationals: Projecting the production of the starting rotation

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It’s no secret that the Washington Nationals have an elite starting rotation. After a dominant 2017 campaign, could they possibly improve in 2018?

Throughout their brief history, the Washington Nationals have typically been built on pitching. That is not a slight to their offense, as their potent lineup is among the best in the league, but pitching has been their heart and soul.

This was certainly the case in 2017, which was especially evident when Max Scherzer took home his second consecutive Cy Young Award. To make things even sweeter for the Nats, Stephen Strasburg finished third in voting.

Now, four of the five starters from the Nats’ 2017 rotation will return. Joe Ross, who served as the fifth starter last year, will be forced to miss at least the first half of 2018 while he recovers from Tommy John Surgery.

The other major change is the pitching coach. Mike Maddux did a phenomenal job over the last two years, but was dismissed along with most of the coaching staff.

To replace Maddux, the Nats brought in Derek Lilliquist, an experienced and well-respected pitching coach. Lilliquist spent the last seven years filling the same role for the Cardinals, where he oversaw some of the best pitching staffs in recent memory.

Lilliquist’s job is relatively easy, considering the staff he has at his disposal, but it will be interesting to see the kind of impact he can make in DC.

Finally, the Nats have a new backup catcher to handle the pitching staff. Jose Lobaton was an adored member of the team for the last few years, but he is now replaced by veteran Miguel Montero.

While Montero does not have a great arm, he is a solid defensive catcher. Dave Martinez raves about his game management skills and pitch framing abilities, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the pitching staff.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the FanGraphs projections for the Nats’ starting rotation.

Max Scherzer

3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.0 WAR

Max Scherzer, the indisputable ace of the Nats’ staff, is arguably the best pitcher in the league. He has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner in two consecutive seasons, which brings his career total to three.

Now, Scherzer will attempt to continue his stretch of greatness.

2017 was a special season for Scherzer because of what he had to overcome. He got a late start to spring training while he recovered from a knuckle injury, and then he pitched with an altered fastball grip upon returning.

Then, after his knuckle finally healed, he dealt with other minor injuries throughout the year. These hardly affected him, however, as he still produced his typical dominant season.

Now that Scherzer is healthy to begin the year, could he be even better in 2018? Some might say so, but FanGraphs projects some regression for the Nats’ ace.

According to the FanGraphs Steamer projection, he will pitch to a 3.39 ERA, which would be his highest since 2012. While Scherzer is an elite starting pitcher, he could begin to regress soon.

Scherzer will be 34 when the season ends, which is past when pitchers typically begin to decline. He has somehow beaten Father Time thus far, but he will likely begin to decline soon. His ERA may not drop nearly a whole point like FanGraphs projects, but we should realistically expect some regression in the near future.

A 3.39 ERA is not up to the lofty standards that Scherzer has set, but the Nats would still take that from their ace.

Stephen Strasburg

3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 4.5 WAR

Throughout Stephen Strasburg’s entire professional career, he has had to deal with incredibly high expectations. After all, he was one of the most heavily-discussed draft prospects of all-time and was selected first overall.

Strasburg took the baseball world by storm, striking out 14 Pirates in his major league debut, but everyone has been left wanting more ever since. He has been dominant, pitching to a 3.07 ERA in eight major league seasons, but everyone always seems to want more.

This is partially because Strasburg has battled countless injuries throughout his career. He is among the best pitchers in the league when healthy, but staying on the field has been a problem.

At least that was the case until 2017.

Last year, Strasburg finally managed to remain relatively healthy for an entire season and put it all together. He had a phenomenal season overall, but pitched to an microscopic 0.86 ERA throughout the second half. Then, the righty did not allow an earned run in 14 postseason innings.

However, despite his tremendous finish to the 2017 campaign, FanGraphs thinks Strasburg will regress in 2018. According to the FanGraphs Steamer projection, he will finish just behind Scherzer in ERA, WHIP, and WAR.

The case could be made for some regression, as Strasburg’s otherworldly second half may not be repeatable, but he probably won’t regress that much. You could also make the case that he will be better than Scherzer in 2018.

Health will be a key for Strasburg once again in 2018. If he is able to remain healthy, look for him to eclipse his FanGraphs projections and possibly keep Scherzer from winning his third consecutive Cy Young Award.

Gio Gonzalez

4.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.5 WAR

Now that Jayson Werth is no longer with the team, Gio Gonzalez is the third-longest tenured Nat. Despite his successful career in a Nats uniform, he has been very erratic at times.

However, Gonzalez finally put it all together in 2017, pitching to a 2.96 ERA and leading the staff in innings pitched.

Despite his terrific 2017 campaign, FanGraphs projects quite a bit of regression for Gonzalez. According to the FanGraphs Steamer projection, his ERA will fall over a point.

Unfortunately, this is not completely preposterous.

Gonzalez had a great season last year, but he was likely the beneficiary of great defense and a little luck. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 3.93, almost an entire point above his ERA.

With this in mind, Gonzalez’s projected 4.17 ERA does not seem too far off. He will also be 33 at the season’s end, so Father Time should begin to kick in soon.

That’s not to say that Gonzalez will not be reliable in 2018; his trademarked curveball has enabled him to have a long, productive career. He should have another solid season, in what could be his final year in DC, but some regression can be expected.

As a complementary member of the rotation, a 4.17 ERA would be just fine.

Tanner Roark

4.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.1 WAR

2017 was an extremely unorthodox year for Tanner Roark. From participating in the World Baseball Classic before the season, to dealing with off-the-field issues during the season, to not pitching in the postseason, it was just a weird year all-around.

While Roark’s overall stats were not great, this was largely due to a horrific first half. After the All-Star Break, he pitched to a solid 3.90 ERA in 14 games.

It is obvious that Roark’s 3.90 second-half ERA is a much better representation of his skillset than his overall 4.67 ERA.

Now that he has gotten the opportunity to go through his normal spring training routine, we can expect a better season from Roark. However, FanGraphs does not expect him to improve much.

According to the FanGraphs Steamer projection, his ERA will only improve by .34. It is important to keep in mind, though, that this projection is based purely on stats. It does not take into account all the weird stuff that happened in 2017.

Realistically, we can expect that Roark will return to form this year. He may not have a sub-three ERA, but it should be closer to his 2.83 from 2016 than his 4.67 from a year ago.

Even if Roark does not make drastic improvements in 2018, he should be a solid fourth starter. As a complementary pitcher, a 4.33 ERA is fine. You can expect him to perform better than that, but his projection would be just fine.

A.J. Cole

4.79 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 0.4 WAR

One of the few roster battles this spring laid within the starting rotation, with A.J. Cole coming out on top. He did not blow the Nats away, but pitched well enough to at least begin the season in the rotation.

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Cole joined the Nats organization as a fourth-round draft pick in 2010, the same year Bryce Harper and Sammy Solis were drafted, but 2017 was his first impactful season in the majors. In 11 appearances (eight starts), the former top prospect pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA.

Now, Cole will be on the Opening Day roster for the first time in his career.

Although Cole pitched well in 2017, FanGraphs expects him to regress quite a bit. According to the FanGraphs Steamer projection, his ERA will jump almost a whole point. Unfortunately for the Nats, this appears plausible.

Last year, despite having a sub-four ERA, Cole had a 5.20 FIP. He had a good year, but he was likely the beneficiary of great defense.

Cole also struggled to harness his control this spring. He issued seven walks in four appearances and was hit hard after falling behind several other hitters. If he is not able to improve his command, he may not last long in the rotation.

Jeremy Hellickson will not be on the Opening Day roster, but he could potentially replace Cole in the rotation. Hellickson signed late in spring training, so he is not quite ready to pitch in the bigs, but he impressed in his first spring outing.

If Hellickson continues to pitch well, he could find himself in the Nats’ rotation by May.

Next: Predicting the Opening Day roster

Although FanGraphs projects regression for most of the Nats’ rotation, they are in good shape. These projections are often fairly conservative, and the Nats have some of the best pitchers in the league. If they are able to remain healthy, the Nats should have an elite rotation once again.

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