Washington Nationals: Analyzing Bryce Harper’s April dominance

Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is unstoppable in April, but he shows his mortality during the rest of the year. What gives?

Even with a cast of all-stars dotting the Washington Nationals roster, all eyes remain laser-focused on right fielder Bryce Harper as he ticks closer and closer to free agency. And with a massive contract looming, the 25-year-old could not have gotten off to a hotter start in 2018.

Through 10 games, Harper is batting .333/.529/.879 with a league-leading six homers and 16 walks. There is so much bold ink on his Baseball-Reference page right now that it looks like an octopus was tallying his numbers.

And this torrid start is not unusual for Harper. While the rest of baseball finds their sea legs early in the season, Harper typically storms out of the gates. In fact, on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast, play-by-play man Matt Vasgersian said Harper’s career 1.099 OPS is the highest mark in March and April of all-time. 

Check out his batting splits through the end of April for each individual season (excluding 2012, when he wasn’t called up until April 28, though he did post a very tidy .861 OPS through the end of May).

These are just gargantuan numbers. Harper has a flair for the dramatic, so its not surprising that he still manages offensive fireworks during the chilliest month of the regular season.

However, while the April numbers are historic, the rest of the season is more of a slog. Here are Harper’s career splits by month.

Harper is still very solid during the rest of the season, but he is no longer otherworldly. His June through September numbers are equivalent to 2017 Domingo Santana. And honestly, it’s totally unfair to expect a four-digit OPS for the entire season. However, when agent Scott Boras is looking for $400 million next winter, he will be cherry-picking the April version of Harper, rather than the June-September version.

So when the weather ticks upwards, why has Harper started to slip? And will he struggle again in 2018? Let’s dive in!

He loses his swing timing over the season

The injury bug is the main culprit for Harper’s “struggles” as the season progresses, but I have another theory.

His swing is so violent and aggressive that it is easier for him to get out of sorts at the plate. He has a leg kick, his back foot is off the ground, he goes for the fences with every hack. Harper’s timing just becomes a little off, which drags down his performance. But why would he hit well in April and then worse the rest of the season if it’s just about timing? Let’s dive even further into my off-the-wall swing concept.

When I was on the high school golf team, I went to a club pro to iron out my swing a few weeks before my senior season. I had a decent swing to begin with, but after just a couple hours, the pro had my game in a much better place. Early in my golf season, I was scoring as well as I had ever had in practice, and doing just as well in the matches. But as the season wore on, I slowly lost the swing changes from the summer, and my scores suffered. I tried my own quick fixes, but those were just band-aids that didn’t consistently stick. By the end of the year, my scores were noticeably worse as my swing had new holes and bad habits.

Back to Harper: I’m not claiming to know anything about Harper’s swing technique or in-season BP habits. But when he starts the season in April, he is fresh off a productive winter of batting practice with his father. He hits a groove and mashes. But as the season drags on, and little nicks collect on his body, Harper loses his original swing path a bit. And if he suffers a legitimate injury, and tries to play through it or return too quickly, his band-aid fixes become less and less effective.

I’m not a swing doctor. I could say it’s as simple as Harper needs to keep his front side in through his violent swing, but I have no idea. And I’m sure Harper has plenty of swing thoughts swirling throughout the season, from his dad, from hitting coaches, and from teammates. I’m admittedly grasping at straws here, but when we’re talking about why he curiously goes from Babe Ruth in the spring to Carlos Gonzalez in the summer, straws might be our only explanation.

Will 2018 be different?

Well, it’s hard to know. Injuries seem to be the biggest reason for his statistical drop-offs, though other issues could be at play too. Pitchers might adjust to him through the season, but that seems unlikely now that he is in his seventh season. Pitchers should already know how to attack him.

While his monthly numbers were slightly inconsistent in 2017 before his August injury, those stats are probably in line with expectations going forward. Harper was sitting on a season-long 1.034 OPS up until his knee injury in mid-August, with an OPS in the 1.200s in April and July, and an OPS in the .800s in May, June, and August. If he can remain healthy for 150 games, Harper will likely balance very good months with the occasional Ruth-ian tear thrown in. That is certainly good enough to be one of the best hitters in baseball.

But at his best, Harper is capable of posting stupendous numbers every single month of the season. During his 2015 campaign, Harper finished with an OPS above 1.000 in four of the six months. His lowest monthly number was a .909 OPS in August, which still would’ve ranked fourth in the NL that season. When healthy – I repeat, when healthy – Harper’s ho-hum is better than nearly anyone else at their peak.

So can he stay at his best? That’s up to Harper and the Nationals.

Harper is already showing more restraint when it comes to his wild ways on the field. On Sunday against the Mets, Harper hit a grounder to first base that forced New York pitcher Seth Lugo to cover the bag. Harper hustled out of the box, but once he saw Lugo in position and ready to receive the ball, he slowed down. Lugo eventually dropped the ball, fell to the dirt, and recovered to get the out, but Harper managed to stay away from what could have been a nasty collision.

(Sidebar: ESPN analyst Jessica Mendoza – who I generally like on-air – criticized Harper for not running through the bag because it was a tie game the 10th inning. If Harper had busted through first, ether he likely would’ve injured either himself or Lugo. Sorry if I excuse Harper for slowing down during a random April game, especially after he injured his knee running through first base last summer.)

On the Nationals end, the team must continue to manage his playing time. If a day off every two weeks is required to keep Harper fresh through October, so be it. As for his swing, new hitting coach Kevin Long is highly-regarded throughout baseball. Before the season, Long told the Washington Post’s Thomas Boswell that he had a couple minor suggestions for Harper, but would largely stay away from the superstar. That’s all Harper needs – a tweak here and there as the season goes along. Just something to keep his swing in shape.

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If Harper reverts to past form and becomes just a very good hitter for the rest of 2018, the Nationals will be fine. But we’ve seen how dominant he can be on a daily basis. If Harper can capture that for a full season again, the Nationals move from a playoff team to the clear pennant favorite.