Washington Nationals: Grading the starting rotation so far

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It’s finals time in schools across America so it’s time to give grades to some of the Washington Nationals. We look at how the starting rotation is fairing.

One of the main reasons behind the Washington Nationals success so far this season has been their starting rotation. With Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg leading the way, the Nats have one of the best rotations in baseball right now.

Their starters’ ERA leads the National League with 2.91 and trails only the Houston Astros’ 2.24 for the MLB lead. But that isn’t the only stat that the Astros are pipping them to for the league lead.

They also sit second in behind Houston in pitching wins with 19 compared to 21 for the Astros. The Nats are also edged out in strikeouts with 289, which is over 40 more than the nearest challenger in the NL. But the Astros stand tall again with 322 in that department. So it’s pretty clear they’re at the top of the pecking order in terms of their rotation.

Not only are the aces delivering, the bottom of the rotation has largely been able to at least keep the team in games. And when those pitchers do that, with the offense the Nationals have, they’re going to have a chance to win the majority of games.

What exactly is making this rotation so dominant this season? Well each of the pitchers has their own strengths and weaknesses, and are succeeding in different ways.

So it’s time to get those pens and pencils out for the mid-May examination in the Nats rotation. As we examine each of the starters individually, before the dreaded grading.

So who’s top of the class, and who needs to come back for summer school?

Max Scherzer doing Max Scherzer things

Max Scherzer is the teacher’s pet of this Washington Nationals rotation, but you probably knew that much already. This year, he could be better than ever, as he remains the Cy Young favorite while working his way into the MVP discussion.

When you check the league leaders in pitching stats, you see Scherzer’s name appearing all over the page. He’s the MLB leader in strikeouts with 91, wins with seven, and is fourth in ERA among qualifying pitchers with 1.69.

Scherzer arguably in the most dominant stretch of his entire career right now, despite being due to turn 34 this July. The Nats ace is on pace to set career highs in several different pitching categories, and for a three-time Cy Young Award winner, that takes some doing.

There’s no reason to believe he can’t continue this torrid pace when you dig into the peripheral stats. First off, his FIP is only a few ticks higher than his ERA, at just 1.75, usually a good measure of whether a pitcher’s form is sustainable.

This is mainly down to him limiting the home runs given up, a particular weakness for him in his first few years in DC. Before this season, he was giving up 1.1 HR/9 with the Nationals. However, this year he’s lowered that to just 0.6, preventing huge damage in any given inning.

He’s been doing even better than Nats fans had hoped, if that was even possible, and his grade reflects this. A+

A+. Somehow, he’s exceeding even his own lofty expectations.. SP. Washington Nationals. MAX SCHERZER

Room to improve for Stephen Strasburg

Many people thought that after a stellar season in 2017, Stephen Strasburg was ready to win the Cy Young award. After all, he did come third in the voting for the award last time around.

So far this season he’s probably been slightly above major league average, which for a lot of pitchers would be fine. He has a 5-3 record, accompanied by a 3.28 ERA and 10.1 K/9, which all look OK on the surface.

But by Strasburg’s lofty standards, he knows he can do better than his current line shows. Thankfully, in May he’s managed to turn things around and is getting back to being the second ace we all love.

In April, Strasburg was allowing far too many HRs with seven bombs in just six starts. This sent his ERA all the way up to 3.63 for the month, which is far from what we’re used to.

But to start off in May, he’s allowed just the one home run in three starts. This leads to a much prettier 2.61 ERA and should set the tone for him in the coming weeks and months.

With a little extra effort in his homework, Strasburg should end up with top marks when all is said and done. But for now, he still needs a few extra classes. B

Washington Nationals. STEPHEN STRASBURG. B. Slow start, but gradually returning to his old self. SP

Gio Gonzalez exceeding expectations so far

Coming into his contract year, Gio Gonzalez was hoping to carry over the momentum from last year’s 6th place Cy Young finish. And in 2018 so far, he’s well on his way to doing so.

Gonzalez has 4-2 record with a pristine 2.22 ERA and even striking out batters at 10.1 K/9 clip. And just like Scherzer, the FIP paints a picture of this being somewhat sustainable. He sits at a 2.48 mark, and could be in for a nice payday this winter as a free agent.

The sole leftie in the rotation has been throwing it back to the Gonzalez of old when he was the Nationals ace. He would love to get back to his 2012 stats when he went 21-8 record with a 2.89 ERA.

The one concern right now for Gonzalez is that he is allowing a lot of base-runners so far this season. He has a WHIP of 1.343 so he has to work out of jams to get his great results. He’s also thrown the fifth most pitches with runners on base in the majors, and you wonder if this may catch up to him.

The high WHIP also results in him not going very deep into outings, and bringing the Nats troubled middle relief in the game. And that doesn’t help the team if they continue to struggle.

Overall, you have to be impressed on the whole with Gonzalez, just be wary he could come back down to earth at any moment. A-

GIO GONZALEZ. A-. Pitching like an ace, but could regress. SP. Washington Nationals

Tanner Roark in the middle of the road

It’s been a strange start to the season for Tanner Roark, and has been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher. He’s had some dominant starts, but also thrown a couple of clunkers too.

The 3.33 ERA and 1.013 WHIP both seem to indicate that overall he’s still doing a serviceable job. And for the Nationals, that’s fine for now as he’s the fourth starter. Especially if he can keep serving up performances like his showing against the Diamondbacks on Thursday.

But the signs aren’t pretty for the rest of this season. He currently owns a .220 BABIP allowed, which is way below his career .275 number. So although he’s known for inducing soft contact that’s a worrying sign that his stats may not be for real.

And the good old FIP stat also projects some regression too at 4.28 as his HR/9 is up to 1.2 this year. And that could begin as soon as his next start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If the regression does come, then it will be interesting to see if Roark can actually maintain his rotation spot. Erick Fedde has stuttered to start off at AAA, but if he can pitch like he has previously, he could make a bid for a rotation spot.

The Nationals lack of a long reliever could also be a factor, were Fedde to excel at AAA. It was the role that allowed Roark to first burst onto the scene back in 2013.

While it will take a fair amount for this to happen, it’s certainly possible given the potential regression and the only real gaping hole in the Nats roster being the bullpen long-man.

Right now, Roark is the weak link, but in a rotation that’s pitching out of it’s mind, that’s not the worst statement in the world. C+

C+. Very hit and miss, could be the weak link right now. SP. Washington Nationals. TANNER ROARK

Jeremy Hellickson a pleasant surprise

Initially brought in as extra competition for A.J. Cole for the fifth starter’s role, Jeremy Hellickson has done nothing but impress.

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This was highlighted by his perfect game attempt against the San Diego Padres a week ago. And it seems like he’s going to stick around for the rest of the season.

He has a 2.20 ERA and remarkable 0.857 WHIP, both of which are ace-level numbers from Hellickson. Fueled by career lows in H/9, BB/9 and HR/9, he’s been a steal for the Nats.

Manager Davey Martinez has been reluctant to let the starter pitch around the lineup a third time so far, which has helped to keep the rate stats low. Given the stats against him the third time around, it makes sense.

In his career, opposing hitters have a .276 average and .840 OPS. Both those figures are over 15% higher than the previous times around the order.

This brings up the same issues that we mentioned with Gio Gonzalez, about the lack of length turning it over to the bullpen too soon. So it would be good to see Martinez try and allow him to stay in longer as the season goes on.

Expect a little regression here for Hellickson, but with the way Martinez is managing him he’ll keep pumping in sold showings. A great fifth starter so far. A

A. . SP. Washington Nationals. JEREMY HELLICKSON

Next: Nats will cope without Zimm

This rotation will look to continue it’s dominant ways the rest of the season. And if they do, the Washington Nationals will have higher hopes than ever come October.

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