Washington Nationals: Vegas oddsmakers love the Nats

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Despite a shaky start, the Washington Nationals remain primed for a long postseason run. Do the Vegas oddsmakers agree with the aspirations of the ballclub?

For a perennial World Series contender, the Washington Nationals’ season has been anything but steady.

After starting off 4-0, the team quickly fell below .500 for the better part of April and never quite recovered until the middle of May.

Injuries have ravished the team, sending two 2017 all-stars, Daniel Murphy, and Ryan Zimmerman, to the disabled list for extended periods of time. Other casualties include Matt Wieters, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Howie Kendrick.

Despite all of the injuries, the Nationals are in first place in the National League East and have the second-best record in the NL This is due in large part to the outstanding performances from their studs, namely Max Scherzer and Trea Turner.

Scherzer is leading Major League Baseball in strikeouts, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and pitching wins above replacement (WAR). Turner leads the Nationals batters in WAR, is tied for second in the league in stolen bases and plays well above average defense.

Despite the unstable start to the season, the Vegas oddsmakers have not waivered on their long-term projections for the Nationals. Nor have the projections from Fangraphs.com.

Also, some Nationals are making their way up the respective leaderboards for N.L. MVP and for the Cy Young award. Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez are among the contenders for the Cy Young while only one batter sees his name in the MVP conversation.

In this article, we will take a deep dive to see how the Nationals fare in the minds of the people whose job it is to handicap baseball.

National League East

The NL East crown resides with the Washington Nationals. In fact, it has so in four of the past six seasons. And the oddsmakers agree it will stay that way.

Using data from Oddsshark.com, which provides lines from a multitude of sportsbooks, the average line for the Nationals to win the NL East in 2018 is -254, or a 73.1% chance.

Despite the surging Atlanta Braves and pesky Philadelphia Phillies, the oddsmakers are confident the Nationals will prevail. This is likely in large part due to the weapons the Nats will have returning soon.

With Murphy, Eaton and Wieters healthy, the Nats offense will be more potent than it already is. The meteoric rise of Juan Soto only helps the cause.

What’s interesting is that Fangraphs.com takes this one step farther. Their projections say the Nats win their division a stunning 88.1% of the time. And to that point, the Nats are projected to win the division by ten games.

While the true median likely lies somewhere in the middle, it goes to show the confidence the sharp baseball minds (and computers) have in the Nationals to turn the four out of six into five out of seven.

Playoffs

It’s become cliché to say that the Washington Nationals cannot win a playoff series. It appears Vegas did not receive the memo. The Nationals are the favorite to represent the senior circuit in the world series.

The Vegas consensus sets the line at +366 (21.5%). To round out the top five, it’s the Cubs (+417/19.34%), the Brewers (+595/14.38%), the Dodgers (+668/13.02%), and the Braves (+847/10.55%).

Some may view this as more surprising than the divisional line, but not when considered within the context of the rest of the N.L. Of note, only one N.L. West team, the Dodgers, is listed.

The N.L. West sent three teams to the postseason in 2017 but has been one of the worst divisions in baseball in 2018. It’s still ok to be skeptical of the Dodgers, or any N.L. West team at this time.

The Cubs are always in contention and are slightly behind the Nationals regarding odds to win the NLCS according to Fangraphs. Chicago is at 28.2% while the Nats are at 29.4%. The one striking difference is that they give the Brewers a minuscule 3.5% chance to reach the Fall Classic.

The Brewers last made the playoffs in 2011 but have surprised this season. They have the most wins in the N.L. with 39.

World Series

While the Washington Nationals have received the benefits of the lagging National League, their World Series odds come back to Earth.

The Nationals are +849 (10.53%) to win the World Series. However, three American League teams have far better odds. The Vegas consensus puts the Yankees as the favorite at +506 (16.50%) with the Astros (+540/15.62%) and Red Sox (+681/12.80%) trailing them.

This should come as no surprise as the A.L., at least at the top, is far better than the N.L. and it’s not close. The A.L. has four teams above 42 wins while the N.L. doesn’t have a team above 40.

As of this posting, the N.L. only has two real contenders (the Nats and Cubs) while the A.L. has four (HOU/NYY/BOS and Cleveland, likely to come out of the A.L. Central).

Fangraphs disagrees strongly with the Vegas consensus. They have the Astros as overwhelming favorites at 24.6%, nearly double the next highest team. The Yankees are second at 14.6% and the Nats slot in third with a 12.4% chance.

Behind Washington are Chicago (11.1%) and Boston and Cleveland (10.5%).

Fangraphs agrees that the A.L. is much better than the N.L. concerning the futures market. Outside of Washington and Chicago, the next best N.L. team in terms of World Series odds is the Dodgers at 7.4%.

Individual Awards

As we’ve discovered, the Washington Nationals are arguably the best team in the N.L. This creates a likely scenario in which they clean up at award season.

More from District on Deck

It should be no surprise to see Max Scherzer as a +200 favorite (33.3%) to win the NL Cy Young award. With a 13.50 K/9, a 2.00 ERA/1.89 FIP and the second most innings pitched (94.2) in the entire league, Scherzer is on par with Clayton Kershaw’s 2014 season, in which he won the N.L. MVP award.

Following in the shadow of Scherzer are the Mets’ Jacob deGrom (+400/20%), Kershaw himself (+1000/9.1%), the Phillies’ Aaron Nola (+1000), and Scherzer’s teammate Gonzalez (+1000). Strasburg is not far behind Gonzalez at +1400 (6.67%).

At this rate, it seems as if only injuries will prevent Scherzer from winning his third consecutive Cy Young.

Conversely, only one National has MVP odds worth discussing. And it’s because he’s the co-favorite. Bryce Harper is tied with Nolan Arenado of the Rockies with +400 odds to win the MVP. Certified Nationals killer Freddie Freeman trails them at +600 (14.28%), and Kris Bryant of the Cubs (+1000) looms in the distance.

Next: Andrew Stevenson Interview

Although Las Vegas may not be the biggest fans of the nation’s capital right now, the Washington Nationals still seem to be fairing well in their eyes.

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