While the Washington Nationals have received the benefits of the lagging National League, their World Series odds come back to Earth.
The Nationals are +849 (10.53%) to win the World Series. However, three American League teams have far better odds. The Vegas consensus puts the Yankees as the favorite at +506 (16.50%) with the Astros (+540/15.62%) and Red Sox (+681/12.80%) trailing them.
This should come as no surprise as the A.L., at least at the top, is far better than the N.L. and it’s not close. The A.L. has four teams above 42 wins while the N.L. doesn’t have a team above 40.
As of this posting, the N.L. only has two real contenders (the Nats and Cubs) while the A.L. has four (HOU/NYY/BOS and Cleveland, likely to come out of the A.L. Central).
Fangraphs disagrees strongly with the Vegas consensus. They have the Astros as overwhelming favorites at 24.6%, nearly double the next highest team. The Yankees are second at 14.6% and the Nats slot in third with a 12.4% chance.
Behind Washington are Chicago (11.1%) and Boston and Cleveland (10.5%).
Fangraphs agrees that the A.L. is much better than the N.L. concerning the futures market. Outside of Washington and Chicago, the next best N.L. team in terms of World Series odds is the Dodgers at 7.4%.