Washington Nationals: Grading the offensive players

The Washington Nationals offense has been nothing if not inconsistent to start 2018. So we start grading each player’s performance so far this year.

Consistently inconsistent. That’s the best way to describe the offense of the Washington Nationals so far in 2018.

You could see this in a microcosm over the past week. Against the Philadelphia Phillies, they put up 13 runs over the three games, including the huge clutch hitting on Sunday night. But then against the Tampa Bay Rays, the offense disappeared and was shutout in both games.

It’s difficult to point to one particular issue that has caused the Nationals to go from one of the best offenses to a middle of the road lineup. But when it comes down to it, injuries and massive underperformance from some hitters are the key factors.

For example, if the Nats have Daniel Murphy, or Adam Eaton available for the whole season, it would’ve been game-changing. But also if Bryce Harper or any of the catchers stepped up to their true levels, it’d be equally difference-making.

Hopefully, this can change in Philadelphia this weekend, with the injuries dying down, and players coming out of slumps. But until then, it’s time to evaluate some of the hitters individually.

After we graded the starting rotation earlier this year, it’s time to do the same for the offense. We decided to set the threshold at 80 plate appearances so that we have a reasonable enough sample size.

This grade also takes into account defense, as it’s an important part of playing on offense. So let’s get started with one of the Nats’ spark plugs at the top of the lineup.

Outfielder – Adam Eaton

The story of Adam Eaton‘s Washington Nationals career so far has been injuries. After surgery on his torn ACL, he didn’t quite look right at the start of the season. Then he missed more time with an ankle injury to start 2018.

But when Eaton has been in the lineup, he’s been an excellent table-setter for the Washington Nationals. And now that he appears fully healthy, we should see that continue throughout the rest of the year.

Through 22 games he sports a robust .293 batting average, .788 OPS and is fifth on the team wRC+ at 117. wRC+ is a weighted way to determine a players offensive performance, where 100 is the average. As you can see, Eaton is way above average.

And lest we forget, he won player of the week in the first week of the season. So were it not for injuries, he could genuinely be in the All-Star discussion with credentials like that.

It’s going to be an interesting rest of the season. He’s now competing with Juan Soto, Michael Taylor, and Bryce Harper for outfield at at-bats. But he should be able to find his fair share, although lately he’s been the odd man out with Taylor hitting well.

With his performance when healthy, he deserves top marks. But health brings the grade down slightly, with room to improve. A-

First baseman – Mark Reynolds

Despite only being brought in as extra depth in mid-April, Mark Reynolds hit the ground running for the Washington Nationals. He went 16 for his first 37, with six home runs and eight RBIs.

However, after that hot start, he’s reverted to the hitter people in baseball are familiar with. Since May 30th, he’s a mere 3 for 45 with 18 strikeouts and we can see why he was unsigned.

The strikeouts are exactly what you’d expect from Reynolds. He has the highest and fifth highest season strikeout totals in MLB history.

But the complete power outage since his onslaught at the start of his Nats career is concerning. Reynolds has usually been a sure bet to hit at least 25 home runs a year, but he looks lost at the plate now.

Ryan Zimmerman isn’t all that far away from a rehab assignment, and that could mean the end for Reynolds. At the very least, the end of his stint with the Nationals.

Overall, it was a breath of fresh air to have him at the start, and he injected some life temporarily. That start does boost his grade up a touch. But now that his power has evaporated, he doesn’t provide much to the team. C+

First baseman – Ryan Zimmerman

Contrary to popular belief, Ryan Zimmerman is indeed still alive and well. He hasn’t played for the Washington Nationals since May 9th but is finally nearing a rehab assignment within the next week.

The oblique injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for the face of the franchise. In his previous 16 games before landing on the DL, he was hitting .311 with four homers and 11 RBI.

However, despite that impressive few weeks, it doesn’t erase his awful start to the year. He was hitting .097 in his first 10 games, and .111 after 17 contests.

This year Zimmerman famously didn’t play a single inning in major league spring training. Whether he did so rightly or wrongly, he had to use the first 17 games as his pseudo-spring training as the first baseman got up to speed.

The offense has been nothing short of diabolical for the Nationals lately. And with Matt Adams lost for a few weeks with a broken finger, they need Zimmerman more than ever.

Given the slow start, we can’t put the grade that high as the OPS still sits at a poor .689. But with the hot streak, before he went down, this is one of the more likely grades to improve as the season progresses. C

Outfielder – Juan Soto

Where would the Washington Nationals be right now without Juan Soto? Certainly, without a few wins that they currently possess that’s for sure.

Nobody expected Soto to be up this soon, but he’s proven he belongs. A .324 batting average, 1.008 OPS, and leave no doubt about his ability. He even has two intentional walks, which speaks volumes in itself.

Of batters with at least 120 plate appearances, that 1.008 OPS ranks fifth in the major leagues, and top in the National League. Yes, that’s right, top in the NL. Above the likes of Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman in that category, which is staggering.

He’s the runaway favorite for NL Rookie of the Year as things stand. Ronald Acuña, Austin Meadows, and Walker Buehler may well put the pressure on with strong finishes to the season, but it’s Soto’s to lose.

The one knock on Soto so far in 2018, has been his sub-par defense in left field. He has a negative four Defensive Runs Saved in the field, and we’ve seen a few plays that make us hold our breath. But when you’re hitting as ludicrously well as Soto is, this is acceptable right now.

At this point, the superlatives just run out for how great the young Dominican has been. This was one of the easiest grades to give in this list. A+

Utility – Howie Kendrick

Among the raft of injuries the Washington Nationals have suffered this season, Howie Kendrick‘s gets passed over a lot. It could turn out to be a huge one given how he was playing beforehand.

With Daniel Murphy starting on the disabled list, Kendrick was regularly at second base or in left field. And was holding the team together when the likes of Anthony Rendon and Adam Eaton missed time.

In the 40 games he played, the veteran hit .303 with 17 runs, 12 RBI, and four homers. It was slightly fueled by a somewhat high .350 BABIP and the BB/K percentage was a mere 17 percent.

However, even with some regression overall, it’s a more than serviceable stat line for someone who was expected to be a valuable bench bat.

However, his season took a sour turn when he injured his Achilles running down a fly ball in the outfield. This injury ruled him out for the rest of the 2018 season, a crushing blow.

This did end up being the injury that caused the Nationals to hurry up Juan Soto. However, there are certainly several more favorable ways we would’ve rather seen the young star make it.

Kendrick likely would’ve scored top marks if he were still healthy and producing at the rate he began at. However, the injury knocks it down slightly, through no real fault of his own. A

First baseman – Matt Adams

When the Washington Nationals let Adam Lind go, it seemed like a huge risk. However, the arrival of Matt Adams has Nats fans feeling blessed by that decision.

With Ryan Zimmerman‘s struggles early on, the Nationals worked Adams into the lineup more. He’s rewarded them with 13 home runs, a .275 batting average, and a .926 OPS.

The key to Adams’ success has been his ability to flat-out rake against right-handers. He’s hit 12 of his 13 homers against righties, and he owns a .978 OPS against them. While against southpaws he has a pedestrian .670 OPS.

He’s impressed so much this year, that when Zimmerman was swinging it well again, they worked him into left field. To the surprise of many, he didn’t look out of place there, or at first base defensively.

In 129.1 innings in left field last season, he had a negative five Defensive Runs Saved. Whereas this year, in 93 innings he has just a negative one DRS. A vast improvement.

However, Adams suffered a broken finger when he was hit by a pitch in the series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays. Now he’s looking likely to be out for a few weeks at the very least.

Despite the injury, the Nats acquired a fantastic bench/platoon piece in Matt Adams. Unfortunately, he couldn’t quite keep up his torrid early pace, but he was still enough for a great grade. A

Catcher – Pedro Severino

Now we come to the interesting case of Pedro Severino. The Washington Nationals catcher has had two different personas. The one behind the plate, and the one in the batter’s box.

In the batter’s box, despite a nice start, he’s been largely a non-threat. He currently sports a pitiful .172 batting average and is only slugging .223, showing minimal power.

It looked like it was Severino’s time to shine when Matt Wieters was injured, and he delivered for a bit. On May 15th he was hitting .270 and had a .382 OBP, showing an impressive eye. But since then, he’s merely 7 for 83, which is good for a .084 average.

Although he won’t be that bad with the bat in the long-term, he won’t be as good as his fast start. Throughout his minor league career, he was a .244 hitter with a .294 OBP, so he can certainly do a job.

On the other side of the ball, Severino has flashed some elite defense. He currently possesses a 3.6 Defensive Rating according to FanGraphs, highest of all Nats catchers this year. He also has the fifth highest caught stealing percentage, among qualifiers, in the National League.

However, no matter how good your defense at a premium position is, you have to offer some threat with the bat. If Severino can improve his hitting, then he’ll be a fine backup catcher moving forward. However, in 2018 so far, he must improve quickly. D

Third baseman – Anthony Rendon

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Anthony Rendon is having another All-Star season for the Washington Nationals but isn’t getting wider recognition.

Once again the Nationals underrated stud is near the top in every major category for his position. He’s fourth among NL third baseman in WAR and wRC+ behind Nolan Arenado, Eugenio Suarez, and Kris Bryant. All of whom he has fewer plate appearances than Rendon so that standing could improve.

And he’s particularly locked in of late. In his last 18 games, he has a .353 batting average, nine doubles, 14 RBI and a stellar 1.012 OPS. A .382 BABIP isn’t as high as you might think either, so it’s not just exceptional luck. But you all knew that, didn’t you.

He’s also first in Defensive Rating, according to FanGraphs, at his position in the NL too. Yes, ahead of Arenado, which is particularly impressive.

Despite this fantastic season he’s having, he doesn’t even appear in the top five third baseman in the All-Star voting. He has a tough order every year to make it, with a stacked group, but at some point he deserves it.

Even if Anthony Rendon isn’t an All-Star officially, it doesn’t mean it’s not an All-Star worthy season. Right now, he’s the hottest bat on the team and a model of consistency in a team that’s struggling for it. A+

Outfielder – Michael Taylor

Talk about a season of two halves for Michael Taylor. The Washington Nationals outfielder looked hopeless at the plate to begin the year. Lately, he’s finally turned a corner, but which Taylor will we see the rest of the way.

To open the year in 45 games, he hit a minuscule .181 striking out 55 times while walking just 14 times. We’ve seen Taylor have poor stretches, but he seemed to be even worse than that.

However, since those opening 45 games, all of sudden, something clicked into gear. After May 20th he’s hitting .340 with a .924 OPS and most impressively has 12 steals which sees him lead baseball with 23.

Now, this hot streak is fueled by a video game type .441 BABIP, so it’s far from sustainable. But if he can maintain the medium he’s at now, with his season average at .241, it’s acceptable.

That kind of hitting, combined with the speed is acceptable because of the breathtaking defense he plays. He was runner-up to Ender Inciarte in the National League Gold Glove award but may go one better this year.

He currently sits second behind Lorenzo Cain in Defensive Runs Saved among NL Centerfielders, with 10. And now Cain is due to miss several games with a groin injury, so Taylor has the chance to claim the top spot.

Overall, it’s been a solid season from Taylor as an overall player with the gold glove defense. But his bat has largely proven he probably won’t end up back at his 2017 levels. B-

Outfielder – Bryce Harper

The player that has divided opinion more than any other among Washington Nationals fans, is Bryce Harper. A torrid start followed by the longest slump of his career leaves his season in no man’s land.

We’re used to scorching starts from Harper, his career OPS in March and April is 1.055. 2018 was no different as he posted an OPS north of 1.000 until the last couple of days in April.

But since the calendar turned to May and beyond, it’s been brutal. He’s barely hitting over the Mendoza line, and the strikeouts have caught up to him with 56 in that spell, compared to 22 walks.

And yet somehow despite all of this, he leads the National League in home runs with 19. The power is never going to go anywhere, now it’s just a case of zoning in and staying within himself.

Over the last six games, he’s hitting .375 with all of his hits going for doubles. Could he finally be locking in again, and ready to correct that average. Boy, we sure hope so.

We saw Paul Goldschmidt go from sub-par performance to more Goldschmidt like numbers recently. Why can’t Harper to the same?

He’s still doing a fine job compared to the rest of his peers in baseball, given all of the walks and home runs. But, evaluating his season to date, you have to be disappointed with the outcome given the MVP caliber player he can be. C+

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Shortstop – Trea Turner

The ever-present in the Washington Nationals lineup this season has been Trea Turner. He’s started at shortstop in all 77 of the team’s games and could be an All-Star this year.

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This year hasn’t quite been at the same level as his rookie year where he hit .342 in 2016. But he owns a solid .261 batting average and has seemingly improved his approach at the plate.

The young shortstop has drawn 38 walks this year, eight more than he did last year and has played in 20 fewer games. And when you have speed like Turner, you need to get on base at every opportunity.

He’s been in a thrilling battle with teammate Michael Taylor for the Nats and major league stolen base lead. Taylor currently holds the edge with 23 compared to Turner’s 21. But Turner has the secure playing time, and more raw speed to likely finish the season ahead.

He’s also been able to play some remarkable shortstop during 2018 too. He’s making a bid to trademark the jump-throw given how much he’s done it this season. Sadly they don’t StatCast that data yet, so we can’t provide you with stats for that.

What we can provide is that he’s fourth among qualifiers in the National League for Defensive Rating, according to FanGraphs. That position could improve too, as the three above him, have played significantly fewer innings.

Although he’s currently fifth in the All-Star voting for shortstops, he may make the team as a reserve. He fully deserves it as a multi-dimensional talent and could be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. His middling batting average keeps him from the real top marks. A-

Next: Mike Rizzo should target these catchers

It’s time for the Washington Nationals to collectively raise their performance this season. It all starts with a key series against division rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies this weekend.