Washington Nationals: Our staff's midseason review

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The Washington Nationals are loaded with questions at the midway point; the District on Deck team is here with the answers.

After a smooth ride to the division title in 2017, the Washington Nationals will have to scrap and claw their way back up the standings for any shot at October baseball. The Nationals sit at just 48-48 for the season and a lifeless 11-22 since June 10.

The Nationals rank 15th in baseball in OPS (.724) and 13th in ERA (3.87), which are both down from last season’s respective spots of 4th and 6th. The clubhouse is once again saddled by injuries, but this year, Davey Martinez and co. have failed to overcome the depleted roster.

A team who was expected to waltz home in the National League East needs to try and come from behind. But the talent is certainly there to make a run if they can come flying out of the gate against the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.

With a crucial second-half upcoming, and the franchise’s biggest offseason ever looming soon after, the writing staff here at District on Deck dove into seven key topics surrounding the team, including awards predictions, playoff chances, and of course, Bryce Harper.

A special thanks to our writers who assisted with this story, including site expert Blake Finney, and contributors Monty Taylor, Tom Sileo, Ross Shinberg, Sean Addis, Thelton Hughes, Steven Helms, and Colby Dunaway.

Let’s dive in.

Who was the first-half MVP for the Nationals?

Picks: Max Scherzer (8 votes), Matt Adams (1 vote)

No surprise here, but the District on Deck staff almost unanimously dubbed Scherzer, the Washington Nationals’ staff ace, as the team’s first-half MVP. As our own Ross Shinberg said, “[It’s] Max Scherzer. And it’s not close.”

Check out Scherzer’s stats and his ranks among NL starters: 12 wins (first), 134.2 innings (first), 12.2 K/9 (first), 2.41 ERA (third), 2.80 FIP (third), and a 0.90 WHIP (first).

Scherzer’s biggest value this season has come as a stopper. The Nats are 14-6 in his 20 outings thus far, and just 34-42 in all other games.

Scherzer has already toed the rubber 14 times following a loss and has pushed the Nats to victory in 9 of those contests. And in the five instances when he failed to snap a losing streak, Scherzer was not exactly to blame; the 33-year-old still posted a 2.90 ERA in those five losses.

Adams, in the midst of a career year at the plate, earned one vote for team MVP, as he has helped stabilize the offense following lengthy injuries to Ryan Zimmerman at first base and Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick, and Brian Goodwin in left field.

Third baseman Anthony Rendon also deserves a mention here, even as he missed out on the All-Star Game yet again. Rendon is slashing .285/.352/.526 this season along with his usual elite defense at the hot corner. The always-underrated Rendon has provided the Washington Nationals with a big power boost of late, bopping 20 extra-base hits in his last 29 games.

Any NL awards – MVP, Cy Young, or Rookie of the Year – for the Nats?

Picks: NL Cy Young – Max Scherzer (8 of 9 votes), NL Rookie of the Year – Juan Soto (8 of 9 votes)

All hail Soto the Wunderkind! At the midway point, District on Deck tabbed the 19-year-old outfielder as the undisputed National League Rookie of the Year.

Soto is batting a remarkable .301/.411/.517 this season and spraying liners all over the field, but his talent might stand out most when he isn’t making contact.

He already leads the Nationals in pitches per plate appearance (4.11). He spits on pitches out of the zone, only swinging at balls 25.3 percent of the time.

For reference, Harper – who has the seventh-most walks in the MLB since 2012 – swung at 34.5 percent of pitches when he was 19 years old. Soto remains extraordinarily comfortable throughout each at-bat, and his .313 OBP with two strikes is evidence of his relaxed approach.

Last month, we analyzed Soto’s competition for the NL Rookie of the Year award, and not much has changed. Soto’s unsightly defense is a black mark against his candidacy, but his mature attitude and impressive power at the dish easily outweigh the negatives.

Scherzer is also the favorite to capture the NL Cy Young award. Scherzer currently sits behind New York’s Jacob deGrom and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola in WAR and ERA, but his dominance in nearly every category sets him apart. However, the NL East race could tip the scales in Nola’s favor if the Phillies cruise to the playoffs while the Nats falter.

The biggest culprit for the Nationals’ struggles thus far?

Picks: Injuries (3 votes), Davey Martinez (1.5 votes), Starting Rotation (1.5 votes), Offense (1 vote), Bryce Harper (1 vote), NL East improvement (1 vote)

Injuries barely take the cake here, though there is certainly enough blame to go around. Let’s start with the wounded, as the Washington Nationals lead the National League in games missed.

Daniel Murphy, Stephen Strasburg, Sean Doolittle, Matt Wieters, Matt Grace, Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, Rendon, Eaton, Zimmerman, Adams, Kendrick, and Goodwin have all spent time on the disabled list. Site Expert, Blake Finney, summed it up best:

https://twitter.com/FinneyBlake/status/1019313285039120385

The Nationals worked around serious injuries last season, but each season is different, as is each injury. While Eaton returned to the team with a vengeance this summer, Murphy has struggled to find his legs at less than 100 percent. While incredibly frustrating, no one is really at fault for those issues.

The rotation does deserve some of the blame though. Scherzer has been dominant all season, and Strasburg was likely an All-Star before succumbing to a shoulder injury in early June. Gio Gonzalez got off to another strong start as well.

But over the last month, everything has gone to hell. Gonzalez has a 7.12 ERA in his last seven starts, which looks positively peachy next to Tanner Roark’s 8.31 mark in his past six outings.

Jefry Rodriguez and the since-DL’ed Erick Fedde have done nothing to help the cause, and even the mighty Scherzer appears more mortal with a 4.50 ERA in three July starts.

The offense has worked in fits all year long, and the bullpen – while better – still inspires little confidence. The rotation needs to be great for the Nats to go on a run.

Another sticking point, as Shinberg pointed out, is that the Nationals were rather laissez-faire towards the rest of the NL East this season. While it once looked like a weak division, Philadelphia and Atlanta have both cracked their contending windows open a year earlier than expected.

The Nats continue to pound the Marlins (6-1 record), but they are just 12-18 against the rest of the division. Now that the Nationals have seen what the rest of the NL East can do, we’ll see if they can kick it up a notch in the remaining intra-divisional contests.

Martinez has also been a popular scapegoat in his first managerial season, and the complaints are understandable. Dusty Baker was a well-liked manager who led the team to consecutive NL East titles. Expectations were high for Martinez right away, and he hasn’t always made the correct on-field decisions.

Still, the players seem to enjoy being around him, especially Harper, who gave rave reviews for Martinez on Monday while dedicating a baseball field in Northern Virginia. “He is one of the best managers I’ve ever played for,” Harper said. “I look forward to hopefully playing with him for the next 10, 12 years.”

Martinez shouldn’t get a free pass for some of his on-field moves, but much of a manager’s job occurs inside the clubhouse; he seems to earn sparkling grades there. I mean, c’mon, how can you not like playing for this guy?

What was the Nats’ best move of the last eight months?

Picks: Keeping and Promoting Soto (4.5 votes), Signing Adams (3.5 votes), Signing Mark Reynolds (1 vote)

Inking Adams to a one-year, $4M deal over the winter seemed like a steal at the time, and Mike Rizzo’s heist only looks better as the season progresses.

From 2012-17, Adams posted a very steady 113 OPS+ with the Cardinals and Braves. The Nationals would have been ecstatic if he had posted those numbers in 2018. Of course, he has been even better, blasting 15 home runs and eight doubles between first base and left field en route to a 141 OPS+ that ranks ninth among National Leaguers (min. 200 PAs).

Adams will shift to more of a part-time role with Zimmerman on his way back but expect Martinez to still shoehorn his big slugger into the lineup. He is slashing .294/.372/.594 against right-handers this year.

Rizzo also made a nice addition by picking up Reynolds off the scrap-heap in mid-April. The 34-year-old has posted a near-identical 143 OPS+ to Adams and helped shore up first base against left-handers.

Reynolds could get caught in the Nats’ roster crunch this week when Zimmerman returns, but he still a provided a useful bat over 42 games when runs were at a premium for Washington’s offense.

Keeping Soto was more about the move not made. Rizzo ultimately decided he did not want to ship out his budding outfielder in a potential J.T. Realmuto deal, even though Soto appeared to be pretty far removed from reaching the majors at the time. Well, after a fast track to the bigs that would make Harper blush, Soto has now been the Nats’ most consistent hitter for nearly two months.

Soto has absolutely exceeded expectations, but props to Rizzo for holding onto the best asset in baseball – a young, controllable, future All-Star – and not panicking for a shorter-term gain.

Will Mike Rizzo buy, sell, or hold at the deadline?

Picks: Buy (6 votes), Hold (3 votes)

The Washington Nationals’ underperformance thus far has put Rizzo in a bind: to buy, hold, or sell off pieces, should the Nats slip further down the standings.

Let’s put a pin in selling for now. The riskiest time to buy at the deadline is as a fringe contender, as GMs move valuable assets to boost teams that will either miss the playoffs or will struggle to do any damage once they get there.

Now, the Nats aren’t a typical fringe playoff team. The roster is getting healthier by the day, but Rizzo can’t necessarily sit around while his vets reacclimate themselves on the field. One bad week and the Nationals will likely push themselves out of the playoff race altogether.

Most of the District on Deck staff is advocating for the Nats to act as “tentative buyers.” Rizzo should look to acquire a back-end starter or a cheap catcher to paper over some roster flaws, and stay away from the splashy names who have additional years of control.

The Nats have cut deep into their farm system during the last few seasons, so there is no reason to go for broke with a big star when the best way for the Nats to contend is to simply have the current players perform more consistently.

Now if the Nats do totally tank out of the gates to start the second half, selling becomes a viable option. Washington should not go as far as moving Harper, but kicking the tires on a deal involving Murphy, Wieters, or any other pending free agents would make sense.

Where is Bryce Harper headed this offseason?

Picks: Nationals (6 votes), Dodgers (2 votes), Phillies (0.5 votes), Giants (0.5 votes)

No one seems to know where the Harper chips will fall. His shaky performance has clouded the picture, but he also hasn’t dropped many hints as to his preferred destination either.

If Harper continues to scuffle, it actually could give the Washington Nationals a better chance at re-signing him. Harper would probably look to rebuild his value on a short-term deal – maybe two years worth roughly $50M with a player option after year one – before dipping into free agency again.

But if Harper surges to his typical levels down the stretch, he will likely ink a nine-figure mega-contract. As we saw in the Home Run Derby, even in a down season, Harper is still one of the most magnetic attractions in the game. With youth and immense talent on his side, someone will surely take a swing even if his yearlong stats are slightly suppressed by his poor first half.

The Phillies have a ton of cap room, though they seem more focused on Manny Machado in the coming winter, with Philly-sports fanatic Mike Trout potentially slotting into their outfield in 2021.

San Francisco is not afraid to make a splash; with an aging core, the Giants need to make a move to blow it up or push their chips towards the center of the table. A Harper signing clearly signals an all-in play.

The Dodgers are the big fish to fear. L.A. reset its tax situation prior to 2018 and is looking for an outfield star. Machado likely isn’t a long-term fit in Los Angeles with Corey Seager and Justin Turner locked in on the left side of the infield, but Harper is a massive upgrade over the Dodgers’ current set of inconsistent outfielders.

The Washington Nationals could certainly re-sign Harper to a mega-deal as well (check out that Harper quote from earlier about wanting to play for Martinez for another “10, 12 years.”)

Ownership has spent big for Scherzer and Strasburg in recent years, and Harper clearly showed his affection for the organization and the city during the Derby. Rizzo has shown the ability to get creative with contracts, so if he can draw up an enticing offer with gobs of money and player control, Harper may still be leading the Nationals in 2019 and beyond.

Will the Nationals make the playoffs?

Picks: NL East Champions (5 votes), Wild Card (2 votes), Miss Playoffs (2 votes)

They aren’t dead yet! Well, at least according to most of our staff, with seven of the nine picking the Washington Nationals to make the postseason. And five of those – including myself – still expecting a third straight division crown.

More from District on Deck

Washington certainly hasn’t hit the jets in July, and the thrilling comeback against Miami on July 5 did not exactly ignite the team heading into the break, with the Nats finishing just 5-5 after the rally. The Nationals now sit five-and-a-half games back of Philadelphia in the NL East, and five games behind Atlanta for the second Wild Card spot, with four teams crammed in between.

Though this team has done everything possible over the last six-and-a-half seasons to prove why it doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt in pressure situations, there are still reasons for hope in 2018.

Yes, it’s just a dumb Home Run Derby, but there was something cathartic about Monday’s performance for Harper, the team, and the fans. When he feels like a superstar, it’s like a weight is lifted off the entire franchise.

Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Doolittle should also be back in D.C. to kick off the second half, which would be the first time the Nationals would have its full, projected lineup – now with Soto and Jeremy Hellickson – back together this year.

The Nationals have a chance to make a run out of the break and fly up the division standings to boot. The first six games – vs. Atlanta and at Milwaukee – look tough on paper, but both clubs sputtered to finish the first half, losing 8 of 11 and 8 of 10, respectively.

Win those series against the two current Wild Card teams, and the Nats will be feeling good as they head into a 10-game stretch at Miami, vs. the New York Mets, and vs. Cincinnati. There is a real opportunity to make up ground quickly, and turn the divisional race into a tight battle by mid-August.

Next: Zimmerman's second-half impact

The Washington Nationals are yet to play up to expectations this season. It is frustrating for its fans but should be just as frightening for its enemies. The Nats have the talent to string together some wins, and now is the time to do so.

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Washington Nationals: Our staff’s midseason review