Washington Nationals: What could they get in a Bryce Harper trade?

Seattle Mariners

Over the last few years, the Seattle Mariners have made some splashy offseason trades. Now they’re in a position to make one at the trade deadline, could they call the Washington Nationals to ask about Bryce Harper?

The Mariners are looking to end the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports this year. They currently sit at 61-41 and hold the second wild card in the American League.

However, the Oakland Athletics are gaining ground, and fast. So the Mariners are going to need to make improvements to hold off the pesky A’s.

Although they will likely have some combination of Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon,  Guillermo Heredia, Ben Gamel and former National, Denard Span occupying the outfield for the rest of the season, they could definitely do with a little more thump.

Jerry Dipoto is finally in a position to go gung-ho mid-season, and Harper would be the perfect addition. The Mariners farm system also has some nice talent that could convince Mike Rizzo to part with his biggest trade chip.

Evan White was Seattle’s first-round choice in the 2017 draft out of Kentucky and could make a perfect heir to Ryan Zimmerman at first base. In his minor league career, he’s hitting .287 and played gold glove caliber defense, however, the power has yet to surface.

Perhaps an underrated prospect in the Mariners’ system is reliever Seth Elledge. He’s been flat-out dominating to the tune of a 1.17 ERA at High-A with the Modesto Nuts while striking out 54 hitters in just 38.1 innings. He should move up the ladder pretty rapidly if he keeps that type of performance up.

Then we come to Juan Mercedes, a young starter the Mariners seem particularly high on. He’s 4-1 with a stellar 1.80 ERA in rookie ball and would be a nice dart throw for the Nats. The full summary of the trade is below.

Cleveland Indians

Overall, the Cleveland Indians feel like the best fit should the Washington Nationals want to trade Bryce Harper. Would they be willing to trade precious prospects to net get the superstat?

Well, they have a clear need in the outfield that Harper can fill. Michael Brantley is the standout outfielder, but he’s had problems staying healthy throughout his major league career.

Then the Indians are currently piecing together the rest of the outfield with a combination of Rajai Davis, Tyler Naquin, Melky Cabrera and Brandon Guyer. They also have Lonnie Chisenhall, but he’s out until around September time with a calf strain.

They’re also in a pretty clear win-now situation, proven even more so by the acquisition of Brad Hand. They gave up promising catching prospect Francisco Majie to get Hand and fellow reliever Adam Cimber.

Despite dealing Mejia, they still have a good farm system to give up enough for Harper. Their top two prospects are both starting pitchers, in Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber, but neither would be on the table for a rental.

Nolan Jones is their 3rd ranked prospect and was ranked as a top 100 prospect by MLB.com before the season. He would be a great centerpiece, with a career .289 average, .393 OBP, and .843 OPS.

Then to make up the rest of the trade, the Nationals would likely want major league ready talent.

Bradley Zimmer was the Indians top prospect between 2015 and 2017 but suffered a torn labrum this year. He’s a very toolsy outfielder that has a fairly similar profile to Michael A. Taylor. He has the floor of a fantastic fourth outfielder but if he can limit the Ks then he has the upside of a dynamic leadoff man eventually.

Finally, a bit of a dart throw on starting pitcher Adam Plutko would make a lot of sense. He’s served as a long reliever primarily for the Indians in 2018. But, before his call-up, he was 5-3 with a 1.83 ERA in Triple-A and would add some much needed starting pitching depth.

So the full trade, with Kelvin Herrera as an extra piece to give Cleveland yet another bullpen arm, is listed below.

Houston Astros

There is no doubt about it, the Houston Astros are looking like a good bet to repeat as World Series Champions. A trade with the Washington Nationals for Bryce Harper could make the rich even richer.

World Series MVP George Springer has center-field locked down, and Josh Reddick is a solid corner outfielder. However, on the other corner, they’re currently using top prospect, Kyle Tucker.

While Tucker has all the tools to succeed in the long-term, he’s hitting a miserable .154 through 14 games. So acquiring a rental to give their youngster more time to develop makes a lot of sense.

In general, Astros GM Jeff Lunhow hasn’t gone out and acquired rentals. When he has made a move and dealt his big prospects, it’s been to get guys with over a year left of control. But he also hasn’t had the chance to acquire a player of Harper’s standard either.

To make Lunhow feel more comfortable, the Nationals may have to add in someone like Justin Miller. Miller came out of the blocks on fire without giving up an earned run in eight straight appearances. He’s cooled off a little, but would still be a great asset to the Houston bullpen, while having him under team control through the 2021 season.

That Nats would likely have a tough time getting the Astros to part with their number three prospect Yordan Alvarez. So here, we’re looking at a similar deal to the Manny Machado trade, where quantity makes up for no high-end prospect.

Freudis Nova was one of the better all-around talents in the 2016 international signing market. Now he’s getting his feet wet for the Gulf Coast League Astros, and having success by leading the team in average, home runs and RBIs.

They could also pluck Wilyer Abreu from the GCL Astros. He’s looking like the second best player on the team behind Nova. The Venezuelan born outfielder so far is hitting .289 with a team-leading 14 RBI and also has 12 walks to 16 strikeouts.

Then the Astros could include a couple of pitchers from the upper levels in Rogelio Armenteros and Trent Thornton. Armenteros has a 7-1 record and a 3.99 ERA with the Fresno Grizzlies while striking out batters at a 9.72 K/9 clip.

Thornton has a deceptive delivery and all the stuff to make it as a mid-rotation type starter. Also with the Grizzlies, he’s compiled a 7-7 record, 3.91 ERA, and a 9.2 K/9, and the worst case scenario would be to work out as a reliever with dominant upside.

So the Nationals would be getting four mid-tier prospects to bolster the farm system’s depth. They would also likely capitalize on the peak of Miller’s value and net a nice return from that. The full trade is shown below.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The National League West has already made waves leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline. Now it’s time for the Arizona Diamondbacks to make their move, and it could be calling up the Washington Nationals to ask for Bryce Harper.

Of all of the teams we’ve mentioned so far, they probably have the best outfield. A.J. Pollock would be a borderline MVP candidate if he didn’t miss a chunk of the season. Then David Peralta and former Nat Steven Souza Jr. hold down the corners solidly.

However, the Los Angeles Dodgers have pushed a whole lot of chips into the middle this summer. They acquired Baltimore Orioles star Manny Machado during the All-Star break as they bid to fend off the Diamondbacks.

To go along with Harper, the D-Backs could also address a few other needs with some pending free agents that the Nationals have.

Although the Nats are among the worst in terms of production from catcher, Arizona isn’t doing a whole lot better. The Nats have a -0.8 WAR from that position, and the Diamondbacks are at an even 0.0. Therefore, if the Mike Rizzo includes Matt Wieters while taking on most of his salary to get a slightly better prospect, that would sweeten the deal a bit.

They could also be feasibly interested in Kelvin Herrera to bolster their bullpen. Although the star relievers have done well in the desert, as the New York Yankees are proving, you can never have too many good relievers.

Prospects wise, Pavin Smith makes a lot of sense as a centerpiece. He’s blocked by Paul Goldschmidt at first base, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon. Smith has more walks than strikeouts so far in 2018 and has excellent power so could move quickly through the system.

The Nationals will also be keen to add starting pitching depth. Taylor Widener was acquired in the Brandon Drury deal this winter and continues to impress in Double-A with 2.75 ERA and well over a strikeout an inning.

Finally, grabbing Wei-Chieh Huang as a former mediocre starter turned dominant reliever rounds out the package nicely. The full trade is shown below.

The Verdict

It’s debatable whether any of these offers actually come to fruition, even if Bryce Harper is put on the trade block. But if they were, the Washington Nationals would have a tough decision to make.

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We’ve previously advocated for the team to not trade Harper, and that does still seem to be the best way to move forward. After all, if the team wants to re-sign the outfielder in the offseason, they shouldn’t jeopardize the relationship they have with him.

But with some great prospects on the table in these hypothetical negotiations, it might be worth re-considering that stance.

In terms of overall value, the Arizona Diamondbacks package likely looks the best for the Nationals. It would certainly be enough to have Mike Rizzo contemplate the offer.

But, perhaps the most tempting would be the Cleveland Indians offer. You would receive two major league ready players in Bradley Zimmer and Adam Plutko while getting a really good insurance policy for Anthony Rendon in Nolan Jones.

So with the Nationals’ current course of trying to compete again in 2019, the Indians offer would be the one to go with. We want to hear your opinion on which offer you prefer, so vote in our Twitter poll below and you can have your say.

We want to say thanks to those who helped play the other half of these trade negotiations to attempt to get realistic trades:

• Seattle Mariners – SoDo Mojo
• Cleveland Indians – Believeland Ball
• Houston Astros – Climbing Tal’s Hill
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Chris Lacey (NGSC Sports)

It’s not going to be an easy decision for Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals as to whether to trade Bryce Harper. However, it’s something they can’t hide from with the team’s current plight.