Washington Nationals: Potential starting second base candidates in 2019

Wilmer Difo

.242/.301/.360 – 4 HRs, 6 SBs

After seeing scant major league appearances in his first two seasons, Wilmer Difo has become something of a lineup staple with the Washington Nationals since the start of 2017.

He has played in 241 games and earned 712 plate appearances over the last two years. But, his .676 OPS in the process ranks just 41st among the 44 second basemen with at least 500 PAs over that span.

The Nationals will likely fancy themselves an NL East contender once again in 2019, so at first blush, it seems untenable to operate with one of the worst offensive second basemen in baseball. However, there are some silver linings that do make Difo more of a credible option as an Opening Day option.

Difo’s starter/sub splits have been bandied about over the last 18 months on Nats Twitter, but they are worth repeating here. In 167 career starts, the 25-year-old owns a respectable, albeit unimpressive, .709 OPS in 676 PAs.

That number craters to an unplayable .481 OPS in 113 PAs as an in-game replacement. Pinch-hitting is quite difficult, but Difo seems to worse at it then most, which is unfortunate since he was often relegated to that role behind Murphy.

Difo would ideally post numbers closer to his career starting marks as a regular in 2019, something we’ve already seen in his first three games since Murphy was traded to Chicago. Difo is 3-10 in those games with a home run, a triple, and a double on the ledger.

Still, handing a starting spot to a player who will post a low-.700’s OPS with average defense and decent speed seems like a fool’s errand for a playoff hopeful.

Difo is best used as an injury fill-in across the infield or as part of a two, or even three-man platoon. Locking him into a starting role not only weakens second base but also causes issues should Anthony Rendon or Trea Turner miss time.

Howie Kendrick

.303/.331/.474 – 4 HRs, 1 SB

Howie Kendrick hit the DL in late May after suffering a gruesome Achilles injury while playing the outfield. But after signing a two-year deal prior to the 2018 season, he could still factor into the Washington Nationals’ 2019 second base plans.

Achilles injuries are extremely tough to return from. While reliever Zach Britton returned to the major leagues in June after suffering the injury last December, the situation could be a little different for position players, especially ones that are turning 36 years old next summer.

Kendrick does at least have time on his side in one sense. He will be roughly 10 months removed from the date of the injury on Opening Day 2019. That should give him enough time for a clean bill of health by the start of the season.

When he is healthy, Kendrick still hits at a high clip. In 92 games with the Nats, he has put together a cool .821 OPS while playing second base, first base, and both corner outfield spots. He is a steady hitter against lefties and righties, and he has proven to be a capable pinch hitter over the years.

But similarly to Difo, it doesn’t make sense to rely on Kendrick in the starting role. His defense has tapered off at second base since the early 2010’s, and will likely get even worse post-injury.

Although he has performed well at the plate, that has mostly been as a quasi-part time player. Even a Difo-Kendrick platoon would likely stretch both players too far over the course of a full season.

The Nationals should plan for 2019 as if Kendrick will be unable to go, even if he progresses well through his rehab. If Mike Rizzo fills out the rest of the roster with quality players, then he will be protected should Kendrick struggle or a loaded team should Kendrick return to full strength.

DJ LeMahieu

.275/.318/.425 – 11 HRs, 5 SBs

DJ LeMahieu is a two-time All-Star, a multiple Gold Glove award winner, and someone who received MVP votes just two years ago. But his reputation likely outweighs his actual production at this point in his career.

The long-time Rockie posted a 128 OPS+ in 2016 en route to a career year, but in his other seven MLB seasons, including 2018, LeMahieu is yet to post anything higher than a 94 OPS+ mark. He doesn’t really steal bases anymore. He swiped 23 bags in 2015 but has just 11 since the start of 2017.

Also, his power is only so-so, especially away from Coors Field. His career road OPS is over 150 points lower than his home mark, and he actually has better numbers against righties than lefties.

While he has been unable to match his 2016 offensive production, his defense is still a bonafide weapon. LeMahieu has recorded 13 defensive runs saved so far this year, bumping his career total up to 64.

But he recently hit 30 years old, and defensive regression tends to go hand-in-hand with age, particularly for a middle infielder. If his defense slips even a little bit over the course of a multi-year contract, and his bat worsens as expected when removed from the friendly confines at Coors, then whoever signs LeMahieu will be left with a replacement-level player on a sizable contract.

LeMahieu has been a remarkably consistent player for Colorado, but he doesn’t really move the needle much for the evolving Washington Nationals in 2019. Rizzo would be better off spending $10-$12 million per year on pitching help rather than forking it over to a player who is only a marginal upgrade on Difo.

Brian Dozier

.228/.318/.407 – 19 HRs, 11 SBs

Brian Dozier picked a poor time to post his worst offensive season since he was a rookie. Even factoring in his mini-surge following his trade to the Dodgers, Dozier’s 95 OPS+ lags well behind the 120 mark he averaged across the previous four seasons.

He still has good power for a second baseman, but his 19 homers are nowhere near the 76 dingers he swatted from 2016-17, good for sixth in baseball over that span.

Dozier can also steal a base from time to time and he still plays credible defense at second, but neither skill is his calling card. Like Murphy, his bat carries his game, so when he is slumping, he doesn’t do a lot to help his team win.

Dozier has always been something of a streaky hitter, so betting on him to rebound in 2019 isn’t inherently a bad idea. But in order to get him for 2019, one would probably have to sign him for 2022 as well. It doesn’t seem wise to ink Dozier to an eight-figure deal through his age-35 season when the Nats have so many other holes to fill on the roster.

Just like LeMahieu, it’s fair to wonder whether the Washington Nationals would be better off with Difo or Kendrick and putting the money that would go to Dozier towards another need.

Other free agents

Ian Kinsler

.240/.306/.397 – 13 HRs, 6 SBs

Ian Kinsler is working through another difficult year at the plate, but his overwhelming defensive value still makes him a useful player. Despite his 91 OPS+ over the past two seasons, Kinsler is ninth in fWAR among qualified second basemen on the strength of his 16 defensive runs saved. He could give the Nats just as much production as LeMahieu for a fraction of the cost, particularly if the team manages his plate appearances throughout the year.

Eduardo Nunez

.257/.282/.373 – 7 HRs, 7 SBs

Eduardo Nunez has been always been a high-average hitter, but this season, his batting average, and thus his value, have fallen off with Boston. Nunez’ walk rate ranks 188th out of 199 players with at least 2,500 plate appearances since 2011, and he is an absolute sinkhole on defense.

The journeyman infielder has posted minus-15 DRS at second base this year, bringing his career total to minus-23 at the position and minus-74 overall. The Washington Nationals finally have a chance to boost their infield defense after watching Murphy kick the ball around for two-and-a-half years, but Nunez is not talented enough as a hitter for Rizzo to overlook his defensive shortcomings.

Logan Forsythe

.252/.313/.327 – 2 HRs, 3 SBs

Logan Forsythe torched opposing pitchers during his final two seasons with Tampa Bay, but his struggles with the Dodgers over the past two years ultimately forced L.A. to swap him for Dozier at the deadline.

Forsythe has actually surged since joining Minnesota, and he has fared well against left-handed pitching throughout his career with a.794 OPS. Toss in his solid defense, and he could work as a potential platoon option, though the Nats probably wouldn’t want Difo working as the long side of that combination.

Out-of-the-box candidates

Anthony Rendon

.292/.353/.497 – 16 HRs, 1 SB

Anthony Rendon is as steady as they come at the hot corner, as he’s fourth in fWAR among third baseman since 2016. It would take a big signing to move him over to second, where he played over 1,400 innings from 2013-15 for the Washington Nationals.

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But if Rizzo wanted to shake things up, he could potentially ink former MVP Josh Donaldson to a one-year, prove-it contract. Donaldson, who posted a 144 OPS+ from 2013-17, has slumped to a 104 OPS+ in just 36 games this season.

He will likely want a multi-year deal as he turns 33 in December, but he could be tempted by a $20-plus million offer for one year to potentially rebuild his value. Rendon rated out as an average defender at second, which would still be a massive upgrade on Murphy.

Carter Kieboom

.282/.359/.452 – 16 HRs, 7 SBs

Carter Kieboom has raked in the minor leagues this season and skied up the prospect rankings as a result. He slots into the “out-of-the-box” section because he is probably on pace to hit the major league level in the middle of 2019.

In the long run, he might be more likely to shift to third base than stick at his current shortstop position. However, we’ve seen Rizzo’s willingness to call up young players before, so fast-tracking Kieboom to the bigs is still a possibility to fill in a potential gaping hole.

Trea Turner

.269/.336/.409 – 15 HRs, 32 SBs

Trea Turner is a very reliable shortstop, and he seems to be getting better defensively over time, but he could end up shifting to second base if Rizzo inks another shortstop in free agency.

One candidate could be Detroit’s Jose Iglesias, whose superstar glove outweighs his mediocre bat (career 84 OPS+) and at age 28, he could still have some untapped potential. Turner and Iglesias would create a young, athletic, and affordable duo capable of supplementing the team’s big boppers with speed an defense.

The Verdict

If it seems like the high-profile free agent options at second base this winter are underwhelming, well, it’s because they are. Difo and Kendrick aren’t the full-time answers either, but they can at least be pieces of the puzzle.

At a bare minimum, the Nationals need to grab four pitchers over the offseason with three relievers and one starter. This further limits funds for the team that could also soon have a $250 million right fielder. Kinsler, Iglesias, or another bargain player all represent the ability to save money, while still building real depth across the infield.

For the rest of 2018, the Washington Nationals will likely give Wilmer Difo the bulk of the starts. His performance may affect the team’s decision, but regardless, it’s a spot the front office will need to consider going forward.