Washington Nationals: Many limbs on the Gio Gonzalez trade tree

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Now Gio Gonzalez is with the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s time for a comprehensive retrospective of the trade that brought him to the Washington Nationals.

In advance of the 2012 season, the Washington Nationals agreed to acquire LHP Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland A’s in exchange for four well-regarded prospects. Now that he’s left for pastures new with the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s time to dissect the trade.

The Nationals ended up sending catcher Derek Norris, as well as pitchers Tommy Milone, Brad Peacock, and AJ Cole to the A’s. At the time of the deal, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported a scout’s reaction, “I don’t know how they could have done better. They got the right set of names. Quality and depth.”

Seven years later, we know more certainly if Oakland did indeed get “the right set of names” from the Nationals.

From name recognition alone, the Nats are the clear winner, as lefty was already an All-Star at the time, and he’d be named for a second time in his first season in Washington. The other four players haven’t cemented themselves as Major League regulars.

But on the outside chance that name recognition isn’t the best way to gauge player value, let’s compare WAR totals. We take a look at the WAR of the players sent to Oakland with Gonzalez’s total as a Washington National, per Baseball-Reference.

Derek Norris: 6.0 WAR
Tommy Milone: 3.8 WAR
AJ Cole: 0.0 WAR
Brad Peacock: 0.0 WAR
Total WAR for the Athletics: 9.8 WAR

Then you can compare that to the WAR of Gio Gonzalez, which sits at 21.4 after he departed the nation’s capital. WAR indicates that, on the face of it, great trade for the Nats, and less so for the A’s. But that’s not the end of it. Not even close.

When the Washington Nationals traded Gio Gonzalez to the Brewers last week for minor-leaguers KJ Harrison and Gilbert Lara, a “trade tree” sprouted. To gauge the total value added by the original Gonzalez trade with Oakland, we’ll need to wait and see what becomes of Harrison and Lara.

Conversely, if A’s GM Billy Beane traded even one of his four-headed trade package, the value of those branches must add to the ledger as well. And as it turns out, he traded all four.

This trade just got a whole lot more complex. The only thing left to do is climb this trade tree one branch at a time and see where it takes us.

(Photo by Tasos Katopodis /Getty Images) /

Derek Norris Branch

Derek Norris and his 6.0 WAR produced the most on-field value of the four principals for the Oakland Athletics. However, he also had the least effective afterlife when he moved on.

He was a semi-regular in Oakland for three seasons before Beane shipped him to the Padres in December of 2014. In return, they got pitchers RJ Alvarez and Jesse Hahn, whose WAR accumulated during their Oakland tenure we’ll add to the ledger since they were acquired directly for Norris.

Alvarez left the A’s when he was claimed off waivers, so we can close the book on him, as no further WAR was accumulated by the A’s as a result of his acquisition.

Hahn was swapped along with Heath Fillmyer this past offseason for Ryan Buchter, Brandon Moss and cash considerations. Moss was productive in 2012-14 for Oakland, but this time around he was cut without making the opening day roster. Let’s update the ledger.

Derek Norris 6.0 WAR
RJ Alvarez: -0.9 WAR
Jesse Hahn: -0.3 WAR
Brandon Moss: 0.0 WAR
Ryan Buchter: 0.0 WAR
Norris Branch: 4.8 WAR

That leaves the A’s total value currently at 8.6 WAR, which is actually down from where it was beforehand. Before we continue, there were a few interesting “wrinkles” to note about the Norris branch. We’ll see other examples of these the more we climb.

Additional Player Wrinkle When players outside our four principals are packaged with one of the four in a trade. For example, Fillmyer’s inclusion in the Hahn trade means that Hahn – and by extension Norris – had help in getting Moss and Buchter from Kansas City. Quantifying Fillmyer’s and Hahn’s respective contributions would be guesswork since we don’t know how heavily the front offices weighed each piece. So we’ll note it, but not adjust the ledger.
Cash Wrinkle When money is packaged with one of our four principals in a trade. The Royals included $3.25MM as part of the swap, more value as a result of trading Norris, but not so easily converted into WAR, so we’ll note it, but we won’t adjust the ledger.
Still Active Wrinkle When a player acquired is currently on the Oakland A’s active roster. For example, Buchter currently pitches out of the A’s bullpen, presumably accruing further value. We can’t know for certain how much WAR he will accumulate in the future, so we’ll note it – say it with me now – but we won’t adjust the ledger.

Tommy Milone Branch

Tommy Milone was traded to the Twins at the ‘14 trade deadline for OF Sam Fuld. Add Fuld’s WAR from parts of two seasons with the A’s to the Oakland stockpile. Since Fuld was released at the end of his A’s tenure, the Milone branch ends with him.

Tommy Milone: 3.8 WAR
Sam Fuld: 1.8 WAR
Milone Branch: 5.6 WAR

The A’s new total up to 10.4 WAR, still over half of Gio Gonzalez’s 21.4 figure.

Brad Peacock Branch

Brad Peacock never actually pitched for the A’s. In the end, he was packaged with Chris Carter and Max Stassi and sent to Houston for Fernando Rodriguez Jr. and Jed Lowrie.

Lowrie played two seasons with the A’s before departing as a free agent. He was reacquired via trade a year later, but we’ll only count the WAR from the first Oakland stint of 2.9 WAR since our foursome can’t claim any responsibility for his second tour in Oakland.

Fernando Rodriguez Jr. pitched parts of three seasons in the A’s bullpen and was a solid addition. He was granted free agency after the 2016 season, thus ending Peacock’s branch.

Brad Peacock: 0.0 WAR
Jed Lowrie: 2.9 WAR
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 0.9 WAR
Peacock’s Trade Tree: 3.8 WAR

That notches the Athletics’ value up to 14.2 WAR, and they are now just 7.3 behind Gonzalez. The A’s are closing in.

AJ Cole Branch

Now the big one. Like Peacock, AJ Cole never pitched for the A’s and actually was traded back to the Nats along with Blake Treinen and Ian Krol.

That trade was a three-teamer that netted John Jaso for the A’s, so let’s add his WAR to the group. Jaso was subsequently shipped to Tampa Bay as part of a package for new offshoots Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist.

Escobar never played for the A’s before he was traded to our Nats for Tyler Clippard. Clippard was sent to the Mets for minor-leaguer Casey Meisner, who remains a minor-leaguer, though no longer in the A’s system.

Zobrist played half a season in Oakland before he was traded to Kansas City for their 2015 title run. In return, Oakland netted pitchers Aaron Brooks and Sean Manaea.

Brooks was flipped to the Cubs for OF Chris Coghlan, who was awful in Oakland before the A’s traded him back to the Cubs three months later for Arismendy Alcantara, who was also pretty bad for the A’s. Alcantara was selected off waivers by the Reds in 2016.

Sean Manaea is the current ace for the Wild Card likely 2019 A’s – and the most glaring “Buchter wrinkle,” so much so that I’m renaming this the “Manaea winkle”. Sorry, Buchter.

Manaea has accumulated 7.2 WAR thus far, which makes him the most valuable piece that Billy Beane and the A’s eventually squeezed out of Gio Gonzalez. For now, that ends AJ Cole’s limb of the Gio Gonzalez Trade Tree.

John Jaso: 3.1 WAR
Yunel Escobar: 0.0 WAR
Tyler Clippard: 0.9 WAR
Casey Meisner: 0.0 WAR
Ben Zobrist: 0.8 WAR
Aaron Brooks: -0.9 WAR
Chris Coghlan: -1.6WAR
Arismendy Alcantara: -0.3WAR
Sean Manaea: 7.2 WAR
Cole’s Branch: 9.2 WAR

Cole himself never played for the A’s, but he was their most valuable addition, clearly.

Conclusion

Before we check the final ledger, take note of some clues about MLB front offices that come to light by mapping the life cycle of this trade tree. Two things, in particular, stand out:

The same trade partners keep reappearing in these trades. Apparently, the Nats, Cubs, Royals, and A’s do an awful lot of talent swapping. Since lines of communication remain open, start scouring the Royals and A’s rosters for potential future Nats.

It’s pretty shocking how often players are traded back and forth between the same organizations. Tommy Milone, Sam Fuld, AJ Cole, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie, Tyler Clippard, and Chris Coghlan were all acquired more than once by the same team.

Time to see who won this trade.

Oakland Athletics

Derek Norris Branch: 4.8 WAR
Tommy Milone Branch:
Brad Peacock Branch
AJ Cole Branch:
2 Active Players (Buchter, Manaea)
5 Additional Players (Carter, Stassi, Treinen, Krol, and Fillmyer himself)
Cash Considerations ($3.25m)

Washington Nationals

Gio Gonzalez: 21.4 WAR
Two Active Players (Harrison, Lara)

So the A’s actually managed to record more WAR overall from this trade, so far. The balance of power shifted, and yet, the winner of this trade is still the Washington Nationals.

Despite losing the WAR battle, Washington comes out on top for one glaring reason. Opportunity cost. Oakland accumulated their 22.2 WAR using twenty players, which means twenty roster spots. Washington only needed one man to earn their 21.4 WAR Gio Gonzalez.

Gonzalez slotted into the middle of the Washington Nationals’ rotation for seven years of 112 ERA+ while preserving the opportunity to add value with their nineteen other roster spots. It was good while it lasted.

Give the A’s credit. Shrewd Billy Beane took his bag of coal and squeezed until it eventually produced a diamond. Sean Manaea is now leading the A’s playoff charge much, in the same way, the Oakland faithful one day imagined Gonzalez might.

Next. Remembering Jayson Werth. dark

Gio Gonzalez was a fantastic addition to the Washington Nationals franchise. Now the ripples of the trade pieces involved are dying down for the A’s, will KJ Harrison and GIlbert Lara form a new tree? We shall see.

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