Washington Nationals: Replacing the replacement-level catchers

Yasmani Grandal – Los Angeles Dodgers

Yasmani Grandal may well receive a qualifying offer from Los Angeles this off-season. The Dodgers certainly have the financial resources to bring him back, but they also have multiple catching prospects that are near major-league ready in Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith.

Having benched Grandal in favor of veteran AJ Ellis during their 2017 World Series run, it wouldn’t be shocking to see LA take a similar approach in 2019.

If not the Dodgers, someone will pay the soon-to-be 30-year-old backstop this winter. He finished outside Buster Olney’s mini-list of competent catchers, tied with Willson Contreras with 2.8 WAR this season, which good for third overall league-wide. He’s a legitimate first-division catcher.

An All-Star in ‘15, Grandal has been a remarkably consistent offensive force for five seasons, averaging 124 games, 390 ABs, .234/.333/.775, with 21 HRs and a 111 park-adjusted OPS.

He strikes out too much with a 24.1% strikeout percentage in 2018, and 23.9% in his career. He walks the right amount with a 13.6% walk percentage in 2018, and 13% for his career. He also hits for power with an excellent .212 ISO in ‘18, .202 ISO for his career. In other words, he’s a perfectly modern player.

Wherever he signs, Grandal should set the market for free-agent catchers. The Yankees gave Brian McCann $17 million per year on average in 2013, which remains the most-ever given to a free agent catcher. Buster Posey’s $22 million, Yadier Molina’s $20 million, and Russell Martin’s $20 million all top the AAV for catchers. Joe Mauer plays first base now, but he still hits like a catcher, and his $24 million marks the high-water mark for the position.

If the Washington Nationals are willing to pay the premium to get him, Grandal would provide a significant boost in production. He’ll surely command well over $100 million across 5 years, but if there’s a position to overpay for, catcher is it, and he’s the guy.

Despite Olney’s fear-mongering, he’s not the only guy.

Wilson Ramos – Philadelphia Phillies

Despite being a year-and-a-half older than Grandal, Wilson Ramos may be a less-risky alternative because his kryptonite in injuries, which can be manageable. The injury history likely limits a potential Ramos contract to three years max, ironically making him a more attractive option to teams wary of committing to a catcher on the wrong side of thirty.

That said, the flaws are glaring. Injuries have plagued Ramos ever since tearing his ACL with the Nats in 2016. During his six weeks in Philadelphia alone, Ramos has appeared on the injury report for his legs, wrist, hand, groin, and hamstring. Not that we’re counting, but that’s most of the body parts he uses to play baseball.

Still, the rigors of the position require most teams to carry at least two, and upwards of three trustworthy catchers on the 40-man roster. Think of catchers in baseball like quarterbacks in the NFL. A backup must be ready in case of injury, but the guys in the room work collectively to handle a staff and strategize for opposing hitters. Even when he’s hobbled, you want Ramos in that room.

The bottom line is that Ramos is a fan favorite who hits like a corner outfielder and has an established chemistry with Washington’s two most important pitchers, Stephen Strasburg, and Max Scherzer. Further, while toughness is one of those folklore-ish baseball qualities, Ramos has admirably fought through injuries and survived a kidnapping, so it’s safe to say he’s tough.

Ramos is brittle and he runs poorly, but if the price is right, Nats fans should be happy to welcome the Buffalo back into the herd.

Wild Card Free Agents

To hammer home this next point, let’s steal Buster Olney’s format. The top MLB Catchers in this year’s free agent class: 1) Yasmani Granda 2) Wilson Ramos. And the rest of the field is far behind them. Quite far behind. Take a deep breath, pretend it’s March, and prepare for these Spring Training invitations:

• Martin Maldonado has a good defensive reputation, 67 career Defensive Runs Saved, but he’s never reached league-average in wRC+, consistently posting sub-.300 OBPs. If the Nats want to roll with a defensive stud who can’t hit, they can stick with Pedro Severino.
• Brian McCann was stellar for the Braves in his twenties and held up surprisingly-okay with the Yankees and Astros into his thirties, but he fell off a cliff this year. The 35-year-old, bad-bodied catcher still takes his walks (9.7 BB%), but his power output plummeted. His ISO fell to .107 while his infield fly ball rate rose for the second straight year, combined with a 7.6% HR/FB rate. Essentially, McCann used to hit the ball far, and now he hits the ball high.
• Kurt Suzuki would be another positive retread for the Nats, but it feels likely he stays in Atlanta. For all their prospect depth, Atlanta’s best catching prospect, Willson Contreras’ younger brother William, is still a couple years away. If Suzuki is amenable, returning their catching tandem of Suzuki and Tyler Flowers makes sense for the likely NL East champs.
• Jonathan Lucroy is probably the best of the veteran flyers, but it’s like being the smartest kid in summer school. In 2014 and 2016, Lucroy was a legit star, but the last two seasons have been unkind. Defensively, after posting positive DRS numbers throughout his career, Lucroy fell to -15 and -8 DRS in the last two years while his power at the plate has all but evaporated with a .082 ISO.

But if you dare to dream, small kernels of hope appear for Lucroy: his hard-hit ball percentage has remained steady while his BABIP has fallen – creating the possibility that he’s suffered some bad luck. Perhaps escaping the spacious Coliseum will restore some of his power. It doesn’t look likely, but then again, neither was a 2.8% HR/FB rate for a guy with 99 career home runs.

The Nationals have some youth at the position, but nobody has quite panned out as of yet.

• Pedro Severino hit a painful .168/.254/.246 over a not-insignificant 190 ABs with the big-league club this year. He’s only 24-years-old, and he’s a solid defensive option, so there’s no reason to think Severino can’t continue to be one of the guys in the room, but if he’s the main guy in the room, the Nats are in trouble.
• Spencer Kieboom rounds out the current major league catchers’ room, but he never profiled as a star. After raking in A ball in 2014 while slashing .309/.352/.500, Kieboom’s batting average consistently fell as he moved up the ladder. He’s been competent defensively and he leads all Nationals’ catchers with 0.2 WAR for the season. However, his BB% is under 10 percent, his K% is over 20 percent, and he’s only managed a most-disheartening 57 wRC+. It’d be nice to see him hold on long enough to play alongside little brother Carter Kieboom, but the long-term outlook isn’t great.
• Raudy Read split his limited 2018 between AA and AAA after losing 80 games to a PED suspension. He’s a glove-first prospect like Severino, but he did hit 16 home runs in AA in 2016, good enough to get a cup of coffee in September. He was the Nats 11th ranked prospect according to MLB.com prior to this season, and if he rebounds early in ’19, Read could make an impact at the big-league level.
• Tres Barrera jumped to #16 on the Nats’ midseason prospect list, largely spurred by his ability to hit for power from the right side. He’s not young, having played all of 2018 in High-A at age 23, but if he can tone down his approach while maintaining his power stroke, he could become a legit prospect – but probably not until 2020 at the earliest.

There’s no easy answer here. Severino, Read and Kieboom will be there in Spring Training to get a look, but if those three find themselves alone in the catchers’ room come next season, the Nats’ kryptonite will be clear. If they can’t land Grandal or Ramos, Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals may need to get creative in the trade market.

JT Realmuto is a stud who plays for the team most likely to trade their studs. Francisco Cervelli is entering a contract year for a low-budget team with a viable in-house alternative in Elias Diaz. Either one will cost their weight in prospect gold. After that, the team will be back to where we started, with a gap so large, all the bad-bodied catchers in the world won’t be able to fill it.

One way or another, the Washington Nationals are going to have to address the catcher position this winter. The free agent class doesn’t look that great, so Mike Rizzo may need to get creative with his solution.