Washington Nationals: Higher priority, Bryce Harper or Anthony Rendon?
Two of the best players in Washington Nationals history have their contracts expiring soon. Who should be a higher priority, Bryce Harper or Anthony Rendon?
It can’t be emphasized enough how big of an offseason the Washington Nationals have ahead of them this winter. Two of their best players have contract situations that need addressing. Bryce Harper is a pending free agent and Anthony Rendon will be entering the final year of his contract.
In an ideal world, the Nationals would love to lock both of them up this winter and ease any concerns heading into 2019. However, with the team set to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2018, the reality is that they may not be able to afford to keep both on long-term deals.
It’s still certainly possible, with a little bit of salary wizardry, for lack of a better phrasing. The Nats can buyout Ryan Zimmerman‘s large contract after 2019 if they haven’t re-negotiated it. Tanner Roark and Howie Kendrick are also set to come off the books after that year, so if they waited until then to make a run at Rendon, it could work.
But if it does come down to deciding between these two superstars, then it’s a decision that needs to be made soon. Harper’s free agency is going to be the talk of the town, and the whole baseball world for that matter.
All signs point towards the team wanting to at least make a move on their long-time outfielder. However, the big question is how much money, and years they are prepared to throw at him, and how much will be deemed too much.
In this article, we took a look at the merits of keeping each player instead of the other, which does assume it’s not financially possible to re-sign both. Then we decide which will be the best course of action for the Nats. First up, it’s Bryce Harper.
Keeping Bryce Harper?
If this question about whether to keep Anthony Rendon or Bryce Harper did not involve money, Harper would probably win in a landslide. However, it’s not quite that simple for the Washington Nationals.
Over their careers, quite simply, Harper has been the significantly better hitter of the two players. Here are the rate stats for the two players over their entire career, entering Friday’s game against the New York Mets:
- Harper: .279 BA, .388 OBP, 14.8 BB%, 21.1 K%, .901 OPS, .234 ISO, 140 wRC+
- Rendon: .284 BA, .360 OBP, 10.1 BB%, 16.1 K%, .826 OPS, .182 ISO, 122 wRC+
Also, while Wins Above Replacement isn’t a rate stat, if we calculate their 162 game average, Harper takes that crown too. Although it’s a lot closer, as this factor’s in Rendon’s virtual gold glove defense, Rendon scores 5.32, while Harper gets a 5.4 figure.
The Nationals can’t simply let a talent like Harper’s leave without a fight. You can’t simply give him a blank check, given how you have Adam Eaton set to take over and the type of contract that could hamstring a team. But letting a generational talent leave rarely goes well for a team.
Also, aside from the cold, hard stats, Harper has the edge over Rendon in various other areas off the field. These need to be taken into account when deciding who to extend, almost as much as the on-field comparison.
For starters, the outfielder is over two years younger, despite being drafted a year earlier and making his debut a year earlier too. So in theory, Harper could even get better, or at the very least return to his MVP standard as he reaches his prime years.
And then you come to the factor that the Bryce Harper effect is also going to put more butts in seats. Rendon goes about his business in a quiet fashion, and while that’s a perfectly fine way to go about it, the exuberance of Harper is going to help pay for the difference in contracts in the boost in attendance. While it may not be a huge factor in the decision, it can’t be simply ignored.
That would allow the Nats to routinely trot out an outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Bryce Harper. Pretty mouth-watering, huh? You could also, in theory, send those three players out in the heart of your order too, which would be bound to score runs for many years.
From the day he got to the big leagues, it had widely been assumed that Harper would leave the Nationals no matter what this year. Now, it appears a realistic proposition that he may stay.
Keeping Anthony Rendon?
Next, we come to the case for the Washington Nationals extending Anthony Rendon over Bryce Harper. This seems to be the most popular choice among most Nats fans in this debate.
The main reason for this is going to be the financial side of the equation. Harper is likely to command something in the range of $350 million on his new contract, with roughly $35 million average annual value.
Rendon, on the other hand, will likely command less, and he would also probably receive fewer years. You can probably expect something along the lines of a five-year deal with an annual average of about $25 million for the Nats’ third baseman.
So not only could Rendon be about $10 million cheaper in terms of AAV, which counts against the luxury tax, you’d also be locked in for less time. That would allow more flexibility if they needed to lock in Trea Turner, and potentially even Juan Soto and Victor Robles further down the line.
But let’s not forget what Anthony Rendon brings to the table as a player. As we covered in the last slide, the batting stats are pretty clearly in favor of Harper, but Rendon excels in the fielding stats.
According to FanGraphs, Rendon’s only negative Defensive Rating season was his rookie year back in 2013. Worth noting about 2013, is that he primarily played second base that year, with Ryan Zimmerman still manning the hot corner.
Funnily enough, Harper’s only positive Defensive Rating season was also his rookie year in 2012. And while most years, he’s still finished pretty close to zero, 2018 was by far and away his worst season on defense.
The Nats would be able to lock down the hot corner for several more years if they chose to extend Rendon. The outfield situation would be fine with Soto, Robles and Adam Eaton, and they would be able to spend money on other needs.
The Verdict
Again, although it’s possible that the Washington Nationals may be able to extend both in due course, for the sake of this exercise, we can only choose one to extend. So with that in mind, the extension should go to Bryce Harper, not Anthony Rendon.
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For all of Rendon’s positive on the defensive side of the ball, Harper is quite simply a generational talent with the bat. If you have the chance to lock that kind of player in for 10 years, at that age, you simply have to try and do so.
Rendon will get a lot more money than many assume, and while it will be roughly $10 million less than Harper, that doesn’t get you much extra. Of contracts that were signed last offseason, that would get you, Lance Lynn, or Joakim Soria. That hardly seems worth the downgrade from Harper to Rendon.
The other argument is that without Harper, you would have Adam Eaton ready to step in and the outfield doesn’t lose too much. But by the end of the 2019 season, you could also have top prospect Carter Kieboom, or Luis Garcia set to take over at third when Rendon is a free agent.
While Eaton is a known quantity, and there is some risk around relying on a prospect, Kieboom seems pretty safe, and if you paired him with say veteran Todd Frazier, you’d be in a good spot.
You also have to look at the intangibles side of the equation, and no matter what state the team is in, people will always pay to see Harper. And while he’s not there yet, it’s entirely possible that Harper is at the start of a Hall of Fame path and should he leave and continue to tear it up, he would not go in as a National.
It’s far from a no-brainer in terms of which player the Nats should re-sign, and they would hardly be in a bad spot if they chose Rendon. However, there are so many factors at play that would lean towards Harper being the better choice.
Next. Finding a Catcher for 2019. dark
It’s going to be a fascinating offseason for the Washington Nationals this winter. They have a lot of things to figure out, and are bound to make one seismic move no matter how things shake out.