Washington Nationals: Worst Case Scenario Offseason
With the Washington Nationals franchise player set to hit free agency, we take a look at what could happen if the Nationals decide to hit the reset button this offseason.
The Washington Nationals are entering a pivotal, franchise altering offseason. It’s one that can shape the direction of this team for the next five or so years. The Lerners have known this time was coming, as has Mike Rizzo, so a plan is in place.
The Nationals have a Plan A heading into this offseason, which begins with re-signing Bryce Harper, and they also have a Plan B, which presumably would be to continue to spend at around the same clip they had previously been spending at to keep the team competitive in 2019. That Plan B also may focus on re-signing Anthony Rendon.
But, what if there’s a Plan C that nobody else is talking about? A plan that involves losing Bryce Harper and then deciding to “rebuild on the fly” in a similar way to the Yankees midseason sell-off in 2016.
It’s a cost cutting move, that would keep the team competitive but keep money available for the 2019 free agent class, which may not be as prestigious as the 2018 class, but still has a good amount of stars which will be ready to hit the market.
In a similar fashion to the article that Site Expert Blake Finney did playing the role of the Nationals GM for a week, we’re going to take a look at what the 2019 Nationals may look like if they decide to go with a Plan C. Let me warn you, the beginning is going to sting.
Bryce Harper signs elsewhere.
Of course, we all knew this was a possibility, but in this scenario, it comes true. Even worse, Bryce Harper turns down the Washington Nationals to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Harper weighs offers from the Nationals, Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers and decides that the Phillies offer fits him best. It also just so happens to be the richest contract in MLB history, a 10 year, $390 million deal with opt-outs after the third, fifth and seventh seasons.
The Nationals were willing to go as high as 10 years, $330 million with matching opt outs, but couldn’t justify going any higher. This sets the tone for the remainder of the offseason. Mike Rizzo and the Lerner family immediately sit down to plan out where they see the team going over the next couple of seasons.
With the up and coming Braves looking like they will be competitive for the next 5-8 years and the Phillies just nabbing the Nationals best player, Rizzo and the Lerners decide to take a different approach and build for the 2020 season.
That leads Mike Rizzo to do something that none of us were prepared for.
Anthony Rendon is traded to the St. Louis Cardinals.
With one year left on his contract, Mike Rizzo decides to pull the trigger on a deal to unload Anthony Rendon. Rizzo decides that the money that could have been used to re-sign Rendon can instead be re-allocated elsewhere in 2020.
Rizzo puts a couple of feelers out there for Anthony right after Harper signs with the Phillies. He gets a couple of offers from teams, but Mike Girsch’s offer of Dakota Hudson and Andrew Knizer gets the job done.
In Hudson, the Washington Nationals are getting an electric arm that will be a middle reliever at worst, but Rizzo and Davey Martinez see Hudson and his mid-90s fastball eventually settling into the starting rotation once a spot opens up. For the time being, Hudson will open the year in a middle relief role similar to how the Cardinals used him this past year.
Knizer could use some more seasoning in the Minors, but his .310/.373/.434 slash line shows that he could be the Nationals starting catcher by 2020.
It’s been a tough couple of weeks seeing Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon both depart, but Mike Rizzo isn’t done. Once he acquires Hudson, he sees an opportunity to move one of his starters.
Trade completed: Anthony Rendon to the St. Louis Cardinals for Dakota Hudson and Andrew Knizer.
Tanner Roark is traded for a pair of minor leaguers.
Mike Rizzo and Billy Beane have a history of making deals together. They haven’t completed a deal together since last year when the Nationals sent Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo and Sheldon Neuse to Oakland for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, so needless to say, Rizzo and Beane are overdue.
There’s no hiding that the Oakland Athletics need starting pitching and Tanner Roark will give them just that. Roark is a free agent at the end of the season and Mike Rizzo figures now is as good a time as any to cash in on a pitcher that he has no intention of re-signing.
Rizzo flips Roark to the Athletics for James Kaprielian and Marcos Brito. In their final arbitration-eligible seasons, MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Predictions has Anthony Rendon earning $17.6 million and Tanner Roark earning $9.8 million next year, so between the two of them, Rizzo just cleared $27.4 million off the books next year.
In Kaprielian, the Nationals get the potential for a high upside starter, possibly a #2 or #3 in the rotation, although he’s been sidelined since 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of 2017. Kaprielian showed his potential in 2015-16 pitching in a total of 15 games, going 4-5 with a 3.36 ERA in 56 1/3 innings. The Nationals have never shied away from a high potential starter with an injury history and that continues to be the case here.
Marcos Brito is still a couple of years away from the majors but he resembles Wilmer Difo a bit. This guy isn’t going to knock your socks off, but he’s going to be a solid defender, hit for average and give you some speed on the base paths. His .231/.325/.283 slash line in the Minors leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s only 18 and has a lot of developing left to do.
Now, Rizzo is ready to fill out the rest of the roster. He knows he needs a catcher, some infield depth, a couple bullpen arms, and a starting pitcher, but after losing his biggest star in free agency and then trading away his second biggest star, it’s time to bargain hunt.
Trade completed: Tanner Roark to the Oakland Athletics for James Kaprielian and Marcos Brito.
Get some veterans to fill out the roster.
Just because the plan is to shed payroll and rebuild on the fly, it doesn’t mean that the Washington Nationals are trying to tank. Sure, they may have an eye on 2020 more so than 2019, but Rizzo is going to go get a couple of guys that are going to strengthen the lineup and bring a new look to the team.
Although Howie Kendrick is due back by the beginning of next season, that doesn’t stop the Nationals from going and getting a full-time second baseman to allow him to fill more of a utility role.
With that in mind, the Nationals go and get Brian Dozier who will provide both a veteran presence in the clubhouse and also some pop in the lineup. Dozier is coming off a bit of a rocky season where he hit .215/.305/.391, but he still hit 21 home runs and throughout his career, he’s a .246/.324/.444 hitter with 172 career home runs.
The Nationals go with Dozier over DJ LeMahieu who would require a longer-term and loftier annual investment. The shorter-term deal that Dozier ends up accepting also plays a role with Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia both lurking in the Minors.
Contract signed: Brian Dozier signs a 2 year, $14 million deal with a player option for $7 million.
With second base addressed, Rizzo decides to bring back an old friend at the catcher position. Having just acquired Andrew Knizer in the Anthony Rendon deal, he no longer sees J.T. Realmuto as a necessity and he also doesn’t need to be in search of a long-term option behind the plate.
Kurt Suzuki fits the bill perfectly as he’s not going to ask for more than a two-year deal and he can catch 110-115 games, while Spencer Kieboom fills in on his off days. Kurt and his 2.1 WAR from last season will be a welcomed addition to a Nationals catching unit that combined for -0.4 WAR last season.
Suzuki is happy to be back in D.C. in what could potentially be his final Major League contract. As a nice bonus, the Nationals and Braves meet up 18 times and Kurt knows a bit about the Nationals NL East rivals’ pitching and can clue some of the Nationals youngsters in on their tendencies.
Contract signed: Kurt Suzuki signs a 2 year, $10 million contract
Prove It Deals
The Washington Nationals are now in need of a third baseman a little bit earlier than they had anticipated. With nobody in the Minors ready to take over, Rizzo turns to the free agent market again to try to find Rendon’s replacement.
Josh Donaldson is the perfect candidate to take over. Another guy who needs to stay healthy, but when he’s healthy he can be unbelievable, as seen during his 2015 MVP season. Both Donaldson and Rizzo will be looking for a one year deal here, so this works out perfectly.
Donaldson will be looking to regain his value and hit free agency again next season, while Rizzo has Kieboom in the minors and may have his sights set on Nolan Arenado after the 2019 season. Donaldson knows he’s going to have to take a lower base salary than he initially anticipated prior to the season, but the two sides hammer out a one year deal with some easily achievable incentives and suddenly things aren’t looking so bad in D.C.
Contract signed: Josh Donaldson signs a 1 year $12.5 million deal.
With the infield now intact, Rizzo moves onto the bench, which is missing a left-handed platoon option for first base. Matt Adams and Adam Lind have filled the role admirably the past two seasons, but this year, the Nationals roll the dice on Logan Morrison having a bounce back year.
After a down year with the Twins where Morrison hit just .186 with 15 home runs, the Twins made the easy decision to decline their portion of the $8 million player option for the 2019 season. Mike Rizzo immediately circles Morrison’s name as the guy he wants to be his left-handed power hitter off the bench.
Morrison asks for money similar to what he got when he signed with the Twins last offseason, which Rizzo balks at after coming off his worst season as a pro. The two sides settle on a one year deal with a mutual option, just like his old contract, but at a cheaper rate.
Contract signed: Logan Morrison signs a 1 year, $3 million contract with a mutual option in 2020 for $6.5 million.
Bargain hunting in the free agent pitching market.
The Washington Nationals are going to need at least one starting pitcher and one reliever to address a pitching staff that finished the year 9th in the National League with a 4.04 ERA, their worst mark since 2010.
Jeremy Hellickson turned out to be a pleasant surprise for the Nationals last year. Although he was pulled prior to pitching his third time through the lineup, he was able to consistently give five or so innings of one or two run ball per start.
Hellickson enjoyed his time here and he decides that re-upping with the Nationals is the right move for his career. It’s a tough negotiation because he looks at his 3.45 ERA through 19 starts and thinks he deserves $7+ million annually. Mike Rizzo reminds him that he only made two quality starts all year, and the two are able to settle on a two-year contract with a team option for a third season.
Contract signed: Jeremy Hellickson signs a 2 year $10 million contract with a team option for $6 million
As soon as Gio Gonzalez was traded, he left not only a void in the clubhouse but a void of a left-handed starter in the rotation. With Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin off the table due to the rebuild on the fly, Rizzo decides to take another shot on a guy who could rebound and he goes and gets Drew Pomeranz.
Pomeranz picked an awful time to have his worst year as a professional. His 6.08 ERA has been left off the Red Sox postseason in each of their three series. With that said, Pomeranz is just 29 years old and he’s a year removed from a season where he won 17 games for the Red Sox. When healthy, this guy is a quality left-handed starter who is going to fly under the radar because of his down year and injury history.
He wants some security in his next contract and prior to the year, he had probably been eyeing a four or five-year deal. That’s just not going to happen now though, so the two sides agree to a one year deal, with lots of incentives, so Drew can hit free agency again after the 2019 season at the age of 30.
Contract signed: Drew Pomeranz signs a 1 year $4.5 million contract.
Mike Rizzo did his work on the bullpen early on in the offseason. As it stands now, Sean Doolittle, Trevor Rosenthal, Kyle Barraclough, Matt Grace, Wander Suero, and Dakota Hudson are all under team control and all would appear to be near locks to make next year’s bullpen. That would leave Koda Glover as depth to start the season in AAA.
It wouldn’t be the worst thing to create some more depth in AAA though and bring in another lefty. So, the Nationals go out and get Jonny Venters to fill that role, bumping Suero back down to AAA.
Venters has undergone an astonishing 3 1/2 Tommy John surgeries in his career. It’s truly unbelievable that he was able to make it back to the Major Leagues. If one thing is true though, the guy knows how to get lefties out, holding them to a .180 batting average throughout his career.
Venters will come on the cheaper side, which is a plus, but the Nationals will have to monitor his usage to make sure he can handle the workload and stay healthy.
Contract signed: Jonny Venters signs a 1 year $1.5 million contract.
Final Roster.
This scenario obviously isn’t the most fun outcome for Washington Nationals fans. They would see homegrown stars Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon both depart in the same offseason. But, we did this with the intention of showing Nationals fans that it’s going to be alright, this team is built for the present and future.
So, without further ado, here is the 2019 Washington Nationals roster in a potential worst case, cost-cutting scenario (salary calculations from Cots Baseball and MLBTradeRumors Arbitration Projections):
2019 Washington Nationals 25-Man Roster
You’ll still note that Plan C sees the Lerners committing $65 million or so total during this free agency period. That’s because there is about a 0.01% chance that even in a rebuild scenario, Mike Rizzo lets this team fail to be competitive with a young core of Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Trea Turner, not to mention Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg continuing to head the rotation. The window is still wide open.
A Week as Nats GM. dark. Next
The Washington Nationals will have gone from having a Luxury Tax payroll of over $200 million to going below $165 million with about $40+ million to work within the 2019-20 offseason. We would all like to see Bryce Harper back in a Curly W on opening day, but even without him, this would be a competitive team that could challenge the Braves and Phillies for the N.L. East title.