Washington Nationals: Handicapping the Bryce Harper sweepstakes
Washington Nationals superstar right fielder, Bryce Harper, is now free to sign anywhere, but what are the Nationals chances at bringing him back to D.C.?
Bryce Harper and his agent, Scott Boras, have been preparing for this offseason since the Washington Nationals drafted Harper first overall way back in 2010. As Boras worded it at the General Managers meetings last week, “Harper’s Bazaar has begun”.
Boras is planning on making Harper the highest paid free agent in the history of Major League Baseball, both in terms of overall value and average annual value. That means Harper’s next contract will be larger than Giancarlo Stanton‘s 13-year, $325 million deal and will surpass Zack Greinke‘s $34.4 million average annual value.
Those two numbers alone should narrow the list of suitors down to about 6-8 teams, but each comes with their own question mark as to whether or not they are actually ready to commit that type of money to one player. Let’s also not forget the “mystery team” who will surely be lurking at the end of all of this.
In this article, we’ll handicap Harper’s five most likely free agent destinations, starting with the most likely destination.
Philadelphia Phillies
Unfortunately for Washington Nationals fans, it’s the Philadelphia Phillies that take the top spot in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.
The Philadelphia Phillies have long been known to be interested in Bryce Harper as well as his fellow free-agent superstar, Manny Machado. The Phillies have kept their payroll low throughout their rebuilding process and they stand to reap the benefits from that this offseason.
Looking at their payroll commitments going into next season, according to Baseball Reference, they have a shade under $69 million committed to players currently on their roster, excluding arbitration-eligible players.
If you take a look at 2020’s payroll, that number drops to just under $51 million and could be as low as $31 million if Jake Arrieta opts out of the remaining 3 years of his contract. Seeing as how their payroll has been as high as $177 million as recently as 2014, it stands to reason that they have a lot of money to spend this offseason.
The Phillies are ready to make a splash during free agency. In fact, Jon Heyman reported in mid-September that many executives think that the Phillies could land both Harper and Machado. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale then confirmed as much in an interview with Phillies owner, John Middleton.
It seems extremely unlikely that the Phillies would land both superstars, but it does show just how serious the Phillies are about getting over the hump and climbing back to the top of the N.L. East standings. If a team is going to be willing to go past $400 million on Harper, it will most likely be the Phillies.
Odds of signing Harper: 2 to 1
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals come in at number two here as it would be no surprise to see Bryce Harper back donning a curly W on Opening Day next season. His love for D.C. and the Nationals love for him has been well documented this past season.
Ted Lerner’s relationship with Scott Boras is also well documented. In January of 2015, Lerner “bailed” Boras out by signing Max Scherzer to a record-breaking free agent contract. We all know now that it wasn’t really a bailout and Scherzer has possibly even outproduced that $210 million contract.
Lerner has made similar deals with Boras in the past, signing Matt Wieters and Rafael Soriano when the market wasn’t exactly booming for either player. The point here being, Lerner and Boras have a mutual respect for each other and have a tendency of working deals out for high-profile stars.
No matter how this plays out, Boras will be sure to circle back with Mike Rizzo and the Lerners once he starts getting offers for a couple of reasons. First, he knows the Lerners have the financial capacity to make Harper a higher offer than the reported 10-year $300 million opening offer that they made on the last day of the season.
Second, Boras knows that Harper does enjoy D.C. and regardless of where the top offer comes from, Harper’s appreciation for D.C. and familiarity with the city cannot be discounted.
Odds of signing Harper: 5 to 1
St. Louis Cardinals
We like the Cardinals chances a little bit more than most here. On the surface, the Cardinals have the need for Bryce Harper’s bat in the lineup, but do they have the ability to sign him?
The Cardinals made a real strong push to acquire Giancarlo Stanton last offseason. Along with Stanton himself, they would have acquired the $295 million left on Stanton’s $325 million contract, so they are clearly willing to spend to bring a superstar to St. Louis. The Cardinals have been longing for a big bat in the middle of the lineup ever since Albert Pujols left.
The question here isn’t whether or not the Cardinals will be willing to put together a competitive offer, but it’s whether or not St. Louis is a fit for Harper. Although the Cardinals fan base is a passionate one, Harper has always seemed more suited for a “big” city, if for no other reason than his marketability.
Every other option on this list will give Harper a bigger stage to shine on and that’s something St. Louis won’t be able to control.
Odds of signing Harper: 10 to 1
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers should not be counted on out any free agents. The Dodgers television revenue alone is a 25-year contract that will pay them $8.35 billion, netting them approximately $334 million per year.
According to the LA Times, the Dodgers are planning to stay under the luxury tax threshold for the foreseeable future. That seems like a bizarre stance considering these are the same Dodgers that were throwing money around in free agency and operating with the highest payroll in baseball for four consecutive seasons, a streak that finally ended this past season.
So, is that just a cover-up to make it seem like they aren’t interested? Maybe, but historically, that’s just not how Dodgers President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman, works. Friedman came over from the Rays, operating in one of the smallest markets in Major League Baseball and in his four years with the Dodgers, has never handed out a $100 million free agent contract. In his eyes, he still might not need to, being that the Dodgers still have a top 10 farm system according to many experts.
After two consecutive World Series losses though, ownership may step in and decide this is the time to go for it. After all, adding Harper to a lineup with Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger would be pretty daunting.
The ability to come up with the money to sign Harper isn’t the issue for the Dodgers. The need for Harper and the ability of Boras to convince Dodgers ownership that Harper can put them over the top is what’s in question.
Odds of signing Harper: 12 to 1
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have long been a suspected destination for Bryce Harper once he hit free agency. That speculation came to a screeching halt when the Cubs had to trade Drew Smyly in order to clear some money to pick up Cole Hamels‘ $20 million option. Then, hours after Hamels’ option was picked up, Buster Olney dropped this bombshell:
Other teams' read on the Cubs' situation this winter: They have very little payroll flexibility, and will have to spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season. The days of having a cheap core of young players are over for the front office.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 2, 2018
Being that the Cubs have nearly $165 million in payroll commitments before arbitration, it’s certainly possible that the purse strings are tied a little bit tighter than anybody initially thought. The Cubs payroll could easily top $200 million after arbitration without having signed one player in free agency.
There’s no question that Harper would add another dynamic bat to this already potent lineup. Not to mention, I hear he and Kris Bryant are friends.
It just seems like Cubs ownership is determined to punish Theo Epstein this offseason for swinging and missing on the huge free agent contracts handed out to Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish. I can’t imagine that Harper would be a swing and a miss for any team, but it’s possible that one more miss on a $100+ million contract could put the Cubs in a financial headache for years to come.
Odds of signing Harper: 20 to 1
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are more of an obligatory addition than anything else. As seen above, the Yankees have two monsters in Aaron Judge and Stanton in the middle of their lineup already, but that doesn’t mean Bryce Harper wouldn’t make an already potent lineup even better. If we are being realistic though, their money is better spent on starting pitching.
Yankee Stadium is exactly the big stage that Harper wants to be on. Boras even went out of his way to declare that Harper doesn’t have to play the outfield, he’s also capable of playing first base. If that comment wasn’t directed at the Yankees, then I’m not sure who it was towards.
At the end of the day, the Yankees will probably stay out of the Harper sweepstakes, but that’s not going to stop Boras from trying to get them involved. Let’s not forget, a 16-year-old Harper once said he wanted to “play in the pinstripes.” and you don’t want to crush a kid’s dreams, do you?
Odds of signing Harper: 25 to 1
The Field
Quite frankly, unless you’re the Marlins or Rays, your team needs to be involved in either Bryce Harper or Machado. If you’re not at least showing interest in one of the two, can you honestly tell your fan base that you’re trying to field your best team?
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The San Francisco Giants actually have as good a chance as anyone on this list. The reason they didn’t make the list is two-fold.
First off, new Giants President, Farhan Zaidi, was the Assistant General Manager in Oakland and then the General Manager for the Dodgers. He’s worked in a small market and a big market, but in neither scenario has he gone after a free agent like Harper, and I wouldn’t expect that to change here.
Secondly, the Giants might be closer to a rebuild than to they are to contending right now. That’s not something that Harper is going to sign on for, he wants to win and he wants to win now.
Speaking of a rebuild, that brings us to the White Sox. The White Sox have the money to sign both Machado and Harper, but unless Harper just goes to the highest bidder, which is certainly possible, I don’t see him landing with the White Sox who may not win for another two to three years.
The mystery team is certainly out there and it could very well be within the Nationals division. Yup, I’m talking about the Braves, or how about even the Padres. Neither has shown a history of spending big in free agency and neither is a big market team, but Harper is a once in a generation talent. Considering the Braves payroll is sitting at a projected $86 million next season and the Padres sitting at a projected $73.8 million, there is definitely room for a big-time addition in there.
Odds of “the field” signing Harper: 25 to 1
Next. 6 Free Agent SPs To Pursue. dark
However this plays out, expect Harper to wait this out for another month or so, probably until the Winter Meetings. The Winter Meetings take place in Bryce Harper’s hometown of Las Vegas. Wouldn’t it be something if the game’s biggest star signed under the brightest lights in the city that never sleeps?