Washington Nationals Ultimate Simulation: The Semifinals

Four Washington Nationals teams remain alive in our best Nationals team tournament. Which two will score a ticket to the finals?

Through four series in our Washington Nationals tournament, the best team won each series. Now we’re down to the final four Nats teams, and it’s time to trim the field to two.

If this is the first article in this series you’re reading, remember to check out our introduction and follow from the beginning. You’ll meet the teams involved and see how we got down to the four teams in the semifinals.

The 2012 Nats swept the 2006 team, and the 2016 and 2017 Nationals each won in five games. Even the number six seed 2011 Nats deserved their win, winning by an average of 3.5 runs per game.

While some people may prefer upsets, it’s great to see the top teams advance. In the NCAA tournament, upsets are fun, but most people want to watch the Villanova’s and Kansas’ of the country in a dogfight for the National Championship.

In our tournament, it’s no different. The teams from 2012, 2016, and 2017 are all loaded with talent and have legitimate chances at the title. The 2011 Nats, while a big underdog, proved themselves in the quarterfinals. Do they have enough left in the tank to pull off another upset?

We’re about to find out, but the first matchup is between the 2012 and 2016 Nationals. Pitching leads both teams. Both include Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, but the 2012 Nats have prime Jordan Zimmermann while the 2016 Nats have Mad Max Scherzer.

In the second semifinal, the 2011 Nats take on the 2017 Nats in a matchup of teams with the big bats. The 2017 Nats can single and double teams to death with the likes of Antony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, and Trea Turner.

On the other hand, the 2011 Nats have unlimited power, with Michael Morse, Danny Espinosa, and Jayson Werth as threats to go deep against any pitcher. Now, let’s see how these matchups play out!

2012 Washington Nationals vs 2016 Washington Nationals

The top-seeded team in this tournament takes on the number four seed in a clash of squads with top rotations. Pitchers duels are what was expected, and pitchers duels are what we received.

Only one time in this six-game series did a team score more than four runs in a game. Which team did it? The 2016 Nationals, who put up two touchdowns and two extra points in game two to steal home field advantage.

That game turned the tide of the series. In the next game, Wilson Ramos (’16) hit a three-run bomb off of quarter-finals MVP Edwin Jackson (’12) to surge his team ahead 2-1 in the series.

In game four, both teams had a flair for the dramatic. In the top of the ninth, Ryan Zimmerman (’12) hit a game-tying two-run double off of Marc Rzepczynski (’16). However, in the bottom of the inning, Danny Espinosa (’16) sent the home crowd home happy with a walk-off solo shot off of Mike Gonzalez (’12).

Up 3-1 in the series, quarter-finals MVP Max Scherzer (’16) shut the door. He threw eight innings of one-run ball en route to a 4-1 victory.

The 2016 Nats upset the top seed and move on to face the winner of the 2017 Nats and 2011 Nats.

2017 Washington Nationals vs 2016 Washington Nationals

There’s no getting around the fact that these two teams are incredibly similar.

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All of the core pieces of recent Nationals teams occupy roster spots on our finalists: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Roark, Harper, Murphy, Zimmerman, Rendon, Turner, and Werth.

However, some small differences may make an impact on the outcome of the series.

Murphy’s 2016 season was his best by far. In 2017, he came back down to Earth. Similarly, Roark had an ERA under 3.00 in 2016. In 2017, it soared to 4.67.

In 2017’s corner, Harper was a completely different player that year. With a 155 wRC+ in 2017 compared to a 111 mark in 2016, he can take over a game. Also, the direct opposite of Roark is Gonzalez. He had a 2.96 ERA in 2017, but a 4.57 ERA in 2016.

Little edges will be the difference in the series. Which team will capitalize on them? That is to be seen.

Come back to District on Deck tomorrow to read about the finals matchup and see which team is crowned the best team in Washington Nationals history.