Washington Nationals: Looking ahead to the team’s 2019/20 free agents

Brian Dozier

Last week, the Washington Nationals agreed to a one-year, $9 million deal with second baseman Brian Dozier. That could well lead him to be a free agent once again next offseason, though he’ll be hoping to do so on the back of a bounce-back season.

In 2018, Dozier was only able to slash .215/.305/.391 with 21 home runs, which was a far cry to his previous seasons. He’s a great bet to rebound with the Nationals in 2019 as it seemed as though the down year may have been partially due to a bone bruise in his knee last year.

In the three previous seasons when he picked up MVP votes in each year, he slashed .258/.335/.496 with over 100 homers and also picked up a gold glove. If he can get anywhere close to that level of performance for the Nationals, he’ll be a huge pickup for the team next season.

However, the reason the Nats signed Dozier is the fact that it was just a one-year deal instead of a multi-year deal. This is because of young prospect Carter Kieboom looming in the upper minors, and he could even be ready as soon as this summer.

That means Dozier’s future with the Nats is directly tied to Kieboom, as he is generally viewed as the stopgap until the youngster is ready. Therefore, if everything continues on the current schedule, it’s likely that Dozier will be plying his trade elsewhere in 2020.

Prediction: Brian Dozier will be a free agent again

Howie Kendrick

After the Brian Dozier deal, Howie Kendrick has now been relegated to a bench role with the Washington Nationals in 2019. It’s a role that he thrived in with the team in parts of 2017 and 2018, but it also makes him somewhat expendable after his contract expires.

Since he was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies for McKenzie Mills in 2017, Kendrick has slashed .297/.337/.484 as a rotation player. He’s even put up a reasonable .690 OPS as a pinch hitter with the Nats when the league average for pinch hitters was .640 in 2018.

He did have the chance to open the 2018 season as the primary second baseman with Daniel Murphy hurt, however, those plans were curtailed when he suffered an Achilles injury early in the season. While that allowed Juan Soto to emerge, it leaves Kendrick’s future up in the air.

First off, he has to navigate the rehabilitation process this spring, as Achilles injuries aren’t easy to overcome, let alone for someone who will be 36 next season. All signs are positive so far, though the injury will restrict Kendrick’s defensive ability, reducing his value as a utility man.

Therefore, if we assume that Carter Kieboom will claim the second base job before the 2020 season, the Nats may be best off letting Kendrick go. Perhaps the veteran ends up with an American League team that can find more ABs for him down the road that will allow him to continue to be effective.

Prediction: Howie Kendrick will depart in free agency

Anthony Rendon

The third and final player who is out of contract with no options after the 2019 season is Anthony Rendon. He’s been a regular at the hot corner for the Washington Nationals, and fans are hoping that will be the case for the foreseeable future.

Rendon has been one of the most underrated players in all of baseball ever since he made his debut back in 2013. He boasts an impressive career .830 OPS while exceeding a .900 figure in his previous two seasons as he has really come into his own.

All of this while playing well above average defense at third base which has been huge ever since Ryan Zimmerman shifted to first base. The question now will be whether he’s destined to stay there beyond 2019 with the only team he’s ever known.

Rendon has previously expressed his interest in getting a long-term deal done with the Nats saying he was “up for it” back at Winterfest. General Manager Mike Rizzo also said he thinks the Nationals should be looking to lock him too at the yearly event, so a deal could easily happen.

There were recent rumors that Rendon was looking for a contract similar to Jose Altuve‘s seven-year, $164.5 million extension. Several Nationals fans would sign that in a heartbeat, so odds are that the team and franchise cornerstone could get something worked out so that he returns in 2020.

Prediction: Anthony Rendon re-signs with the Nationals

Stephen Strasburg – Player Opt-Out

Now that we’ve looked at the three clear-cut free agents, we take a look at the players who have various options that could make them a free agent. First up is Washington Nationals rotation stalwart, Stephen Strasburg.

After the 2019 season, Strasburg has the first of two opt-out clauses in the contract he signed during the 2016 season. This means that the ball in his court ahead of what could be a decisive season for the right-hander.

After a promising 2017 in which he finished third in the NL Cy Young voting, Strasburg couldn’t replicate that form last term. He finished the year with a 10-7 record and 3.74 ERA as he continually battled injuries in 2018.

While Strasburg did have diminished velocity late last season, that’s expected to return and he has a good chance to be among the game’s best pitchers again. If he does rebound, then he will have an interesting decision to make with that player opt-out that looms at the end of the year.

He would be set to earn $25 million in 2020 if he was to decline his option, which is still pretty close to market value for a pitcher of his caliber. In another era with player-friendly free agency, he may have opted out, but unless he turns in a Cy Young season, he’s likely to remain with the Nationals beyond 2019.

Prediction: Stephen Strasburg declines his opt-out and remains in 2020

Trevor Rosenthal – Club/Vesting Option

We looked at Brian Dozier earlier on this article, but he’s not the only new player to appear on this list. The Washington Nationals also added Trevor Rosenthal in the offseason, though his situation is slightly different with an interesting option situation.

After a year out of baseball as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, Rosenthal needed a chance to prove himself again. He earns $6 million in 2019 with the team with a $14 million option that either the Nats pick up, will automatically vest if he pitches 50 games or finishes 30 games.

The situation works well for the Nationals, as while those incentives are lofty, if he’s anything close to his pre-surgery form, he’ll be worth $14 million. In parts of six seasons, the right-hander posted a 2.99 ERA with 121 saves and an impressive 12.0 K/9 with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Because the option vests automatically in certain conditions, if Rosenthal isn’t pitching to that elite level he has been at previously, the Nationals may have to be careful. Given recent signings such as Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino, $14 million would be a lot if Rosenthal isn’t on top form.

On the whole, in his first year back from TJ surgery, it’s tough to expect Rosenthal to go right back to an elite level that makes it worth vesting his option. Therefore, at this point, the most likely outcome is that his buyout is taken and he once again hits the open market.

Prediction: The Nats exercise Trevor Rosenthal’s $1 million buyout

Matt Adams – Mutual Option

Though he’s technically a new addition this offseason, the Washington Nationals are certainly glad to have Matt Adams back in the fold. After a successful stint in D.C. last season, before a late-season trade, he’s back as a valuable left-handed power bat for the Nats.

After signing for $4 million in December 2017, he once again gets $4 million guaranteed again this time around. However, this time, he has a $3 million salary in 2019 and a mutual option for 2020 with a $1 million buyout for the team.

Last season, he boasted a solid .257/.332/.510 slash line to go with 18 home runs, 48 RBI as he played first base and left field. But it was against right-handed pitching where he thrived, with a .882 OPS against righties as a National, compared to a .608 OPS against lefties with the Nats.

Even despite the trade to St. Louis, Adams frequently spoke of how he enjoyed his time in the nation’s capital. Evidently, he enjoyed it enough to return and both sides are bound to be satisfied with the current mutual option in place for 2020.

Both sides likely expect a similar output to 2018 next season, so even though mutual options are rarely exercised, it seems likely a mutual option will be taken to give both added security for 2020. This seems like a match made in heaven and gives the Nationals a great insurance policy for Zimmerman moving forward.

Prediction: Nationals and Matt Adams agree to exercise the mutual option

Yan Gomes – Club Option

Acquired in a trade with the Cleveland Indians this offseason, Yan Gomes is the final new addition to appear in this article. He is a big reason that the Washington Nationals are in a much better situation behind the plate than in previous years.

Gomes is coming off of an All-Star campaign in which he slashed a solid .266/.313/.449 with 16 long balls and 48 RBI while also being regarded as one of the better defensive catchers in the game. This is more impressive when you realize catchers around the league combined to slash .232/.304/.372 last season, and the Nats were among the worst with a .209/.299/.312 line by their backstops.

Not only was Gomes a huge upgrade on Matt Wieters, but he was also appealing because of his team options at a reasonable cost. In 2020 he has a $9 million team option and in 2021 his contract also possesses an $11 million team option. Pretty team-friendly.

For comparison, former Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos signed with the New York Mets this offseason for $9.5 million per season. Yasmani Grandal also signed a one-year deal that includes a mutual option the Milwaukee Brewers for $16 million.

Those two recent contracts should emphasize how good of a deal the Nats have gotten with Gomes’s contract. Even if he regresses slightly from his 2018 levels, he would still be well worth the $9 million option given his defensive skills and leadership behind the plate.

Prediction: The Nationals exercise Yan Gomes’ 2020 club option

Adam Eaton – Club Option

When the Washington Nationals traded for Adam Eaton before the 2017 season, one of the main reasons they gave up a king’s ransom for him was the favorable contract. After the 2019 season, the first of two team options could kick in and gives the Nats a favorable choice.

Even though Eaton once again missed a large chunk of time through injury, he was able to finish off the season healthy, setting himself up well for 2019. In 2018, he slashed .301/.394/.411 and hit leadoff frequently as a pesky hitter who always found a way on base.

Hopefully, assuming he’s fully healthy, he’s primed to do the same again, unless the elephant in the room comes to pass. Eaton’s future with the team appears to be directly affected by the future of Bryce Harper and whether he returns or not.

If Harper returns, then Eaton could well be playing on a different team as soon as next season. However, if the 2015 MVP departs, then Eaton should be a key cog in an exciting outfield that also contains young studs, Victor Robles and Juan Soto.

Regardless of which uniform he is in, it seems a near certainty that Eaton will have his $9.5 million option taken up in 2020, and in due course the $10.5 million option for 2021 too. Those would seem like fair market value given Eaton’s current output, and could be bargains if he rediscovers his power stroke.

Prediction: Adam Eaton has his club option exercised by the Nationals

Ryan Zimmerman – Club Option

While there are some doubts about the durability of Ryan Zimmerman, he’s been a very productive player when on the field in the last two seasons. He’s yet another player that the Washington Nationals must make a contractual decision about.

Zimmerman followed up his All-Star 2017 campaign with a sluggish start to the season after not playing a single inning in big league Spring Training. But just as he started to heat up at the plate, he was forced to spend about two months on the disabled list.

But when he has been playing, he’s had an impressive .289/.350/.542 slash line with 49 home runs in 229 games. Thankfully, now the team has reacquired Matt Adams, the Nats should be able to manage Zimmerman’s games a little bit better this year and allow him to thrive again.

A couple of seasons ago, it looked like Zimmerman was firmly on the downswing, but now the Nats have an interesting decision to make about his future. It would make sense to bring him back, but it would need to be at the right price given his status as a part-time player.

The first baseman told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post that “I don’t think it’s any secret I’d like to finish here” and he also mentioned he’s not going to leave for a few extra bucks. So with that being said, the most likely outcome is that the team works out an extension for Zimmerman, or in failing that, he’s likely to return after the team buys out his option at the end of the year.

Prediction: Ryan Zimmerman signs an extension before the end of 2019

Sean Doolittle – Club Option

Even though the Washington Nationals had high expectations for Sean Doolittle when they acquired him from the Oakland Athletics, he’s somehow exceeded them. Some may question whether the trade was worth it, but his team-friendly contract may swing the vote.

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Not long after the 2018 season had concluded, the Nationals triggered the first of Doolittle’s team options for $6 million, with another option for $6.5 million that can be triggered for 2020. When you look around the rest of the league this offseason, that turns out to be incredible value for someone that was one of the best closers in the game when healthy last year.

For example, Zach Britton‘s new deal has an annual average of $13 million with the New York Yankees, double what Doolittle could make in 2020. Another left-hander in Andrew Miller is also set to earn $12.5 million over the next two seasons, which just goes to emphasize how good a deal the Nats have.

The only concern, and it’s a minor one at that, is the injury Doolittle suffered last season. Assuming that he’s fully over the injury, which all signs seem to indicate he is, then this is probably the easiest decision this entire article.

$6.5 million for one of the best closers in the NL is an absolute steal and will likely be activated as soon as humanly possible. On a related note, it will be interesting to see if the Nats and Doolittle can work out a way to keep him in D.C. even longer next offseason.

Prediction: The Nationals activate Sean Doolittle’s club option