Washington Nationals: Who should hit leadoff next season?

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The Washington Nationals are going to have some interesting lineup decisions to make next season. One of those will be deciding who hits atop the order.

With the future of Bryce Harper still up in the air, the Washington Nationals lineup could look very different next season. One of the decisions the team will have to make is who should hit leadoff for them, with several worthy candidates for the job.

Last season, the Nationals had seven different leadoff hitters throughout the season. Those seven players were Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, Michael Taylor, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles.

In that group, you have an interesting combination of on-base skills, speed and some power, which seems to be a new trend in the leadoff spot. However, with Harper still a free agent and Goodwin now with the Kansas City Royals, that leaves five who could occupy that spot, if the team played tomorrow.

In the five remaining players, they all offer a little of everything that will give manager Dave Martinez plenty of choices. There’s some raw speed with Turner, Robles, and Taylor, on-base skills with Eaton and then arguably the team’s best hitter in Soto.

In general, Martinez favored Eaton when he was healthy as he was in the leadoff spot for 73 games, the most on the team. However, with Eaton injured for a fair amount last season, we saw Turner hit first 63 times last year. Robles also led off for 10 of the 24 games the team had after his call-up, which means these are our three most likely contenders.

We break down the case for each of these players to lead off next season and then throw in some other wildcard candidates to the mix. First up is that man who led off the most, Adam Eaton.

The case for Adam Eaton

The argument for starting Adam Eaton at the top of the order is simple. As Brad Pitt once said, “he gets on base.” So he’s one of the more appealing candidates for the Washington Nationals as they construct their batting order.

Eaton lost some power as he was only able to record a .411 slugging percentage last season, the lowest he’s had for four years. But he was still an on-base machine as he possessed a .394 on-base percentage, which was the highest of his career.

He was second on the team in OBP behind Juan Soto, but obviously with the same power numbers. Therefore, with his experience at the top of the order and the fact he still get on base at an elite clip, he’s one of the better choices to fill the void.

However, the drawback to using Eaton atop the lineup is that his speed is limited, even more so after a pair of injuries in his time as a National. Last season, he only stole nine bases after stealing at least 14 during his three-year spell with the Chicago White Sox.

But he is at least a smart baserunner and isn’t one that necessarily makes mistakes on the base, which is key before the big hitters come up. He also has Dave Martinez’s trust atop the order, as shown by him being the most frequent choice there. Consider him the favorite for the job.

The case for Trea Turner

When Adam Eaton was on the shelf for a couple months early on, we saw Trea Turner blossom in the leadoff spot. His speed is game-changing for the Washington Nationals and he is clearly the leadoff hitter of the future for this team.

His 43 stolen bases last season led the entire National League, but Nats fans who watch him on a regular basis know that his ceiling is somewhere in the 70 steals range. Part of the reason for the suppression was due to him hitting in front of Bryce Harper several times, and the Nats not wanting to take the bat out of the outfielder’s hands.

So say Turner hits leadoff, with Eaton hitting behind him, there’s no benefit for someone to pitch around Eaton to get to someone like Anthony Rendon. Therefore, if the shortstop leads off, he should have ample opportunities to get himself into scoring position for the heart of the order.

However, unlike Eaton, Turner doesn’t quite have the same on-base skills as the former White Sox outfielder. Turner’s career OBP of .346 is a fair amount lower than Eaton’s .363, while he also doesn’t draw as many walks as the team would like with a 7.5 career walk percentage compared to Eaton’s 8.9 percent.

But Turner showed noticeable signs of improvement in that department, in particular when Eaton was out with injury. He had the highest walk rate of his career at 9.3 percent, and also had the lowest strikeout rate in his career with 17.8 percent, so he may be ready for the top spot in 2019.

The case for Victor Robles

Even though it was likely just experimenting given the Washington Nationals season basically over, we got a taste of Victor Robles in the top spot. He has the game-breaking speed just like Trea Turner, and that would make him a great fit to lead off for the Nats.

Robles has stolen at least 22 bases in each of his five pro seasons within the Nats organization. But that’s while only playing more than 75 games in two seasons, due to injury and only playing short-season during the early years of his career. He could have the chance to top 40 stolen bases in the major leagues in a full-time role.

But don’t sleep on the rest of Robles’ game, as he actually led the Nationals in all slash line components as a leadoff hitter. He slashed .356/.400/.667 atop the order, with Adam Eaton slashing .297/.392/.403, Trea Turner slashing .274/.336/.430 and Bryce Harper slashing .217/.288/.543 leading off.

The concern with Robles is his lack of experience in the big leagues, which may cause some regression in what will be his rookie season. That may be too much of a risk than the Nationals would consider worth taking, especially with such a crucial position in the lineup that sets the tone for a team.

Maybe in the long-term, Robles could be a potential leadoff hitter, but right now, Turner would be a better choice if the team deems speed important in the leadoff spot. Though were the shortstop to go down injured, then the rookie outfielder may have a more legitimate case for leading off.

The case for anyone else

While Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, and Victor Robles are the three primary candidates for the gig, there are some intriguing options for the Washington Nationals who have led off at one point or another in their respective careers.

Michael Taylor

Much like Turner and Robles, Michael Taylor would certainly bring a lot of speed to the team in the top spot. He finished second on the team in stolen bases with 24 steals which was the most he had recorded in a season in his five-year career.

However, not only does Taylor not currently have a starting spot on the team, but he also strikes out far too often to ever seriously be considered. He led all Nationals with at least 100 plate appearances in strikeout rate at 30.1 percent, so he won’t be hitting at the top of the lineup.

Juan Soto

Soto led off once last season on May 30th against the Baltimore Orioles, and this move would be solely based on on-base ability. he led the team in OBP with a .406 figure, just ahead of Eaton, Harper, and Anthony Rendon.

The fact of the matter is, Soto has proven that he is too valuable to put at the top of the batting order, and should be in the heart of the order driving in runs instead. His power really came to the fore in 2018 which should see him hitting between third and fifth for years to come.

Brian Dozier

One of the other lesser thought of candidates to lead off could be the new addition, Brian Dozier. He led off plenty of times for the Minnesota Twins as he currently boasts a solid enough but not spectacular .324 career OBP

Unfortunately, there are simply better options than going with Dozier for the top spot, as there are players who are simply better at what he does best. Maybe if the team suffers a rash of injuries, we may see him top the order, but it’s unlikely.

Bryce Harper

Yes, though some may not like it, Bryce Harper could still potentially return to the Nationals next season and beyond. Early on in 2018, Martinez put Harper in the leadoff spot in an effort to try and bust him out of his slump, while also making the most of the number of walks he was getting.

But like Soto, the problem with having him hit there frequently is that he is much more valuable in the middle of the order where his power can thrive. He was a constant presence in the three-hole when he was in the lineup last year, and that’s where he would hit if he returns.

(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

The Verdict

The choice on who people would pick to lead off depends on which philosophy you buy. Whether you prefer pure on-base skills or whether you prefer speed. However, the best option for the Washington Nationals is probably Trea Turner.

More from District on Deck

The speedy shortstop’s progress with his plate discipline last season was the determining factor that would make up for the slightly lower OBP than other potential candidates. Early in the season, his OBP sat in the .380 range, so he clearly has the ability to get on base more often. Maybe keeping things consistent and contantly having him at the top would benefit him and allow him to work the count more.

Having Turner at the top may also help the rest of the Nationals lineup to slot into place. You could then hit Adam Eaton second, Anthony Rendon third, Juan Soto fourth and Ryan Zimmerman fifth. You could also swap Zimmerman for Brian Dozier and have Matt Adams hit sixth against tough right-handers. That lineup has the nice righty-lefty alternation that manager Dave Martinez likes.

On Saturday, we held a Twitter poll to see what our followers thought about the debate of the leadoff hitter. You can see the results below.

Who do you want to see leadoff for the #Nats next season?
— District on Deck (@DistrictOnDeck) January 19, 2019

It looks like Adam Eaton just edged out Trea Turner as the outfielder scooped up 41 percent of the vote compared to 35 percent for the shortstop. It was interesting that Victor Robles picked up 23 percent, meaning there are a lot of fans out there who already have confidence in him.

Looking ahead at the Nats' 2019/20 FAs. dark. Next

The leadoff spot is going to be crucial for the Washington Nationals in 2019, as they will set the tone for a team keen to do the little things right. While there are several good choices, hopefully Dave Martinez makes the right call on this one.

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