Washington Nationals: Offseason has brought defensive improvement

One of the Washington Nationals main objectives this offseason was to improve on defense. Based on their activity so far, they have succeeded in doing so.

In one of the franchise’s biggest ever offseasons, the Washington Nationals have made defense a huge priority. So far, with the moves that they’ve made so far this winter, they should see drastic improvement on the defensive side of their game.

Last year, the Nationals were among some of the worst teams in the game defensively. Take your pick of the defensive stats, they were usually in the bottom third. They ranked 25th in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved, 22nd in Ultimate Zone Rating, 20th in FanGraphs Defensive Rating.

But perhaps a stat that’s triggered more emphasis on defense is the team’s poor 18-24 record in one-run games last year. In those games, it’s usually the little details that determine the outcome of the game, and manager Dave Martinez agrees.

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“I’m going to push the envelope a little bit more than I did this year, especially with fundamentals,” Martinez told Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post back in December. “Fundamentally sound. Turning double plays. Being more aggressive on defense. Whether we’ve got to shift more, shift less. We’re looking at all that stuff.”

It remains to be seen exactly how Martinez will change Spring Training and whether he will indeed shift more when the regular season rolls around. However, one thing we do know is that with the Nationals’ activity this offseason will immediately improve the team’s defense no matter what.

The main improvement on defense will come from a full season of the team’s top prospect, Victor Robles. Last year, the Nats were third last in Statcast’s Outs Above Average with -16, which uses Catch Probability for outfielders.

Despite the team’s overall poor outfield defense, Robles actually finished with 2 Outs Above Average in his 21 big league games. If we scale that up to 140 games, for example, then that comes out at around 14 OBA, comfortably ranking in the top 10 in baseball. Depending on whether Bryce Harper returns or not, Robles will be a huge upgrade on either Harper, who recorded just -13 OBA or Adam Eaton who had only -6 OBA.

But the Nationals haven’t only upgraded in the outfield, they’ve also managed to acquire an upgrade at second base. Last season, the Nationals had a combination of Wilmer Difo, Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy taking up the vast majority of the time at the keystone. The latter two particularly are generally considered a defensive liability, contributing to the team finishing third last in DRS in the major leagues.

Now as we head into 2019 the team acquired Brian Dozier to be the starting second baseman, bridging the gap to Carter Kieboom. Dozier won a gold glove back in 2017, even if the defensive metrics were so-so. He should be able to easily improve on the performance of Kendrick and Murphy while adding more experience than Difo, leading to improvement at the keystone.

The Nationals are also likely to be stronger defensively behind the plate. Yan Gomes, a highly regarded defensive catcher, will likely take over from Matt Wieters who comes in at around league-average on the defense front. Gomes is a huge asset that shouldn’t go underrated in this whole offseason and will make a huge impact behind the plate.

Combine the above with natural improvements on defense from Juan Soto and Trea Turner as they continue to grow, the Washington Nationals are primed for a strong defensive season. That could make a huge difference in their pursuits for the division title in 2019.