Washington Nationals: Nationals Vegas Win Total Still Strong

The Washington Nationals over/under win total is stable after a few more free agents have signed.  Why is the Nats current number still so strong?

The Washington Nationals may have lost Bryce Harper, but the Vegas oddsmakers did not flinch in regards to the team’s outlook.

In January, DistrictOnDeck analyzed the Nationals over/under win total, which at the time was set at 88.5.

We speculated that if Harper did indeed leave, the win total would drop a few wins.

While Harper did in fact leave, the Nationals win total did not drop.

As of this week, the Nationals win total is still at 88.5, according to OddsShark.com.

At the time, the Nats were the favorites to win the National League East.  This total is now, however, one win below the Philadelphia Phillies at 89.5.

The Atlanta Braves check in two wins below the Nats at 86.5.  The New York Mets are slightly behind the Braves at 85.5, and the Marlins are so far down the list that it is not worth wasting the words to discuss them.

What we can glean from these win totals are that the oddsmakers in Vegas have no clue who is going to win the division (with the exception of Miami).  That is good news for the Nats because it means they have just as good of a shot as any team.

It’s easy to see why the Phillies are the favorites in the eyes of Vegas.  Lots of public money must have come in on Philadelphia after the Harper signing and J.T. Realmuto trade.

That raises another question: Why didn’t the Nats win total drop?

One assumption we made in our earlier analysis was that the oddsmakers baked in about a 40% chance of Harper leaving into their original 88.5 win total number.

Based on the rumors at the time, it seemed like a fair estimate.  However, what if we were wrong and the original number assumed Harper was leaving a large majority of the time?

If that is the case, the oddsmakers loved the Nationals before Harper left.  Now that the move is official, that level of admiration did not change.

While the offense’s production will take a hit without Harper, the foundation of the Nationals roster is the pitching rotation, and that is as strong as ever with the addition of Patrick Corbin and having a healthy Stephen Strasburg.

It seems like the oddsmakers are comfortable banking on that consistency as it takes wagers on the N.L. East teams.