The Washington Nationals erred in their decision to resign pitcher Jeremy Hellickson. He has a 6.23 ERA through 8 starts this season.
In February, when the Washington Nationals re-signed Jeremy Hellickson to a 1-year $1.3 million contract plus incentives, it seemed like a reasonably good deal for the team. As it turns out, Hellickson’s great year last year appears to be a fluke.
Through just 39 innings, Hellickson has already walked as many batters (20) as he did all of last season. Hellickson’s WHIP currently stands at 1.718, which would be by far the highest mark of his career. His 6.17 FIP and 71 ERA+ show that his 6.23 ERA is not a fluke.
Complicating matters even further is that Hellickson’s contract calls for him to hit specific incentives on a “per start” basis. Hellickson has already earned $600,000 in incentives for his 3rd, 5th and 7th starts of the year. He will receive an additional $200,000 each for his 9th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 18th, 21st, and 23rd starts and then he will earn $300,000 for his 25th through 30th starts of the season. That’s $3.4 million in incentives which are still up in the air for a player who is not very good.
Incentives count against the luxury tax, so for a Nationals team that has vowed to stay under the tax, that $3.4 million shouldn’t be taken lightly. According to Cots Baseball, the Nationals currently stand just $8.7 million below the luxury tax. If the Nationals can get back into the playoff race, they’ll likely need to make significant additions to the bullpen so they will need every bit of that $8.7 million in wiggle room.
Hellickson’s next start, which is scheduled to be Friday against the Marlins, would be his 9th start of the season. That’s another $200,000 that he will cash in on. Both in a financial sense and a quality of play sense, the Nationals can’t afford to let Hellickson make his next start.
Hellickson doesn’t have an excellent track record as a relief pitcher (although it’s a small sample), so moving him to the bullpen may not make the most sense. It’s also possible that Hellickson wouldn’t agree to make a move to the bullpen and instead would ask to be released. The only real option might be to designate Hellickson for assignment and move Joe Ross back in the rotation, a topic District On Deck contributor Kyle Scafariello touched on last week.
Anibal Sanchez and Hellickson have not given the Nationals much of a chance to win while they’ve been on the mound this season. With the hole the Nationals are in, they don’t have much room for error. Replacing Hellickson in the rotation with Ross, who has a career 4.06 ERA as a starter (compared to a 7.24 ERA as a reliever) would be an upgrade.
Moving Ross back to the rotation gives the Nationals a better chance to win every 5th day and also doesn’t dig into the already thin pitching depth that they have in the Minors. Wil Crowe has looked great this season, but he’s in AA Harrisburg and isn’t quite ready. Kyle McGowin could hypothetically stay with the club and take Hellickson’s spot, but Ross has an already proven track record and deserves the chance.
Whatever decision Mike Rizzo makes, he must do so quickly. This weekend’s four-game series against the Marlins is one where the Nationals must win. Letting Hellickson make his start would be a huge mistake.