Washington Nationals Trade Deadline Preview and Predictions
With the 2019 MLB Trade Deadline less than a week away, we preview what moves we may see the Washington Nationals make or not make.
1. Who would be your top two targets at the trade deadline?
Ross– Any left-handed reliever, so my top targets are Will Smith (SFG) and Jake Diekman (KCR). With the Giants finding themselves back in contention, and with the Royals confirmed as sellers, I think aiming for Diekman is a good strategy.
Tom– Ken Giles and Shane Greene. The Nats need a dominant right-handed reliever to pair with Sean Doolittle late in games. Tanner Rainey has shown flashes, but is not quite there yet on a consistent basis as he continues working on his control. Even though Giles struggled in the 2017 postseason with the Astros, there aren’t many dominant relievers out there who recently pitched in a World Series, which makes him my top target. He’s clearly figured some things out since then in Toronto, which makes him an ideal acquisition for the Nationals. Teams like the Braves and Phillies would fear Giles coming out of our bullpen.
Monty– Like most other teams hoping for the playoffs, the Nationals desperately need to add to their bullpen. Most of the season has seen the Nationals post the worst bullpen ERA in the majors. The lineup is solid, and the starting pitching is a strength, even with a mediocre fifth starter. GM Mike Rizzo should look for two arms with recent and successful late-inning experience, one left-handed and one right-handed. Even with limited prospects, the Nationals should try to acquire at least one of Alex Colome from the Chicago White Sox or Will Smith from the San Francisco Giants.
Danny– Best case scenario would be the Nationals end up with Will Smith and Alex Colome. Buster Olney reported that the Nationals are focusing on adding two relievers, with a priority on left-handed relievers, so Smith makes sense. Although he’s not controllable after this season, he’s the cream of the crop when it comes to left-handed relievers. Colome, on the other hand, has put together a nice season in Chicago carrying a 2.33 ERA and 21 saves. Colome, unlike Smith, would be under team control next season. The best part about both of these guys is that they have closer experience. So if something unfortunately happens to Sean Doolittle, the Nationals would have a guy who could step right in. A 7th, 8th, and 9th of Colome, Smith and Doolittle would likely be the best back end of the bullpen that the Nationals have had.
Matt– My top targets would be Will Smith and Sam Dyson from the San Francisco Giants. I think getting these two in a package would be a great deal. You instantly solve your left-handed reliever problem with Smith, and Dyson gives you an extra back-end of the bullpen guy to use in big situations.
2. What prospects would you consider untouchable?
Ross– No prospect or player on the 25-man roster is untouchable. However, with the limited amount of “big names” on the rumor mill this year, I don’t expect the Nats to make a massive, potentially franchise-altering trade at the deadline.
Tom– Carter Kieboom. With Anthony Rendon still unsigned, the Nationals simply cannot trade a young infielder of his caliber. The Tigers reportedly asked for him in return for Shane Greene, and if that’s true, I’m glad Mike Rizzo apparently said “no.” For now, Carter Kieboom is untouchable.
Monty– The problem is that this is a seller’s market and everyone is looking for relief help. The above arms will likely be a bit out of the Nationals price range, in terms of prospects. Over the years, the Nats have stripped their farm system bare with trades and some poor development on the pitching side of things. With Rendon possibly on his way out, the Nats shouldn’t be trading away any of their top prospects, but especially not Carter Kieboom.
Danny– Aside from Carter Kieboom, who is poise` to step right in at either 2nd base or 3rd base next season and should be deemed untouchable, the Nationals have to do their best in making Mason Denaburg, Wil Crowe and Tim Cate unavailable in trades. The Nationals have a very thin farm system when it comes to starting pitching and these three guys have shown a lot of promise. None possess top of the rotation, ace type stuff, but all three have the potential to slot in as mid to back of the rotation starters. Cate especially has been dominant of late and carries a 2.75 ERA through 18 starts split between Hagerstown and Potomac this season. If holding these three makes it so that teams are demanding Luis Garcia or Yasel Antuna in return, it might be a risk that Mike Rizzo has to take.
Matt– The only prospect I would say is untouchable is Carter Kieboom. Despite not wanting to give up guys like Will Crowe, you have to give to get. This team is capable of winning a World Series if they upgrade their bullpen. No one but Kieboom should be off the table.
3. Who do you believe is the Nationals’ biggest trade chip?
Ross– The two most significant trade chips are Michael A. Taylor and perhaps Wil Crowe. Though again, I don’t expect any notable names to be on the move.
Tom– Anthony Rendon. If the Nats were to fall off a cliff this week and get dominated at home by the Rockies and Dodgers, they would be forced to once again consider trading Rendon. The Nats losing two elite homegrown players in Rendon and Bryce Harper while getting nothing in return could haunt the franchise for at least a decade. Had the Nats not turned things around so dramatically since May 24, Rendon almost certainly would have been changing uniforms on or before July 31.
Monty– The Nationals are not going to be sellers at the deadline, so you can rule out the previous possibility that Max Scherzer would be traded. I think you can rule out Anthony Rendon as well, despite the fact that his contract is expiring and the Lerners wanting to avoid a repeat of the Bryce Harper situation. Unless Rizzo somehow works a miracle that nets us an All-Star caliber player in return, the Nationals are not trading their best hitter in the midst of a playoff race. Assuming that Carter Kieboom is untouchable, I think our biggest trade chip will be a top prospect such as Luis Garcia, Wil Crowe, or Tim Cate.
Danny– If they were to make him available, it would have to be Carter Kieboom. I think Mike Rizzo and company have made the final decision to buy, so any talk of Anthony Rendon, Max Scherzer or Sean Doolittle changing uniforms is off the table, making Kieboom the most attractive trade chip. In fact, reports are that the Tigers have already asked for Kieboom in exchange for Shane Greene. It doesn’t hurt to ask, but a Kieboom for Greene trade just isn’t going to happen. If Kieboom is moved, it would have to be for somebody along the lines of Felipe Vazquez (boy wouldn’t that sting). Unless the Nationals get a young, controllable reliever in return, I can’t imagine Kieboom going anywhere.
Matt– I think Carter Kieboom is the clear biggest trade chip if for some reason Washington did decide to make him available. More realistically, I think Luis Garcia and Will Crowe are their two biggest chips who actually could be moved. Garcia is extremely talented, and him paired with a low-level prospect likely could net you someone like Will Smith or Shane Greene. The problem is with Anthony Rendon’s uncertain future in D.C. you really can not afford to give up Garcia.
4. Prediction Time: What will the Nationals do at the 2019 deadline?
Ross– The Nationals will not make any trades at the deadline. In the event of a trade, it will be for an extremely cheap rental player. Mike Rizzo has had four months to fix the bullpen. Of all the months to start that process, July seems like the worst choice considering the rest of the league knows just how desperate the team is for relief pitching help.
Tom– Acquire a top-tier right-handed setup man and mid-tier situational left-handed reliever to make up for the ineffectiveness of Matt Grace and Tony Sipp. I also wouldn’t discount the possibility of a fifth starter being acquired, possibly packaged with one of the two relievers.
Monty– The Nationals will acquire two bullpen arms that may or may not be what is needed. I’d like to see them acquire some rentals for cheap, but I’m not sure that’s even viable giving the demand for relievers. I think the Nats will end up bringing in Ken Giles from the Toronto Blue Jays and Jake Diekman from the Kansas City Royals. Sean Doolittle will remain as the closer while the other two and Fernando Rodney work as the high leverage relievers down the stretch. There’s an outside chance the Nats acquire a cheap fifth starter option as well.
Danny– The Nationals need to make a splash and acquire two good bullpen arms. The problem is, their farm system isn’t very deep, so Mike Rizzo may have to try to get creative. It’s possible that we see Michael A. Taylor moved in a trade for a reliever. Since the farm system isn’t great, Rizzo may not be able to shop at the top end of the relief market unless he’s willing to deal Garcia, Crowe or Cate. The Giants will likely ask for one of those three in return for Will Smith, which is a steep price for a rental. I think in the end, the Nationals end up with Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson. With that being said, one team to keep an eye on is the Reds. Rizzo has long liked Cincinnati closer, Raisel Iglesias, and the Reds are fading as of late. If the Reds decide to sell, Iglesias, along with fellow Reds reliever, Jared Hughes could become targets.
Matt– All along I have believed that Alex Colome was the guy the Nationals would end up with at the deadline, but a week before I am changing my tune. With the lack of resources to trade, Mike Rizzo can’t afford to wait and let the market determine the price of relievers. I believe Rizzo will be aggressive and set the market with a deal for Detriot Tigers closer Shane Greene. Kieboom won’t be in the deal, but a name to look out for in potential deals for bullpen help is a current member of the bullpen Wander Suero. The big right-hander is extremely talented, and a team could see potential in him as the A’s did in Blake Treinen when Washington traded him for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Along with Greene, I believe the Nationals will acquire someone cheap to help upgrade the left-handed arms in their bullpen.