Washington Nationals: Nats Enter Must Win Series Against Atlanta
The Washington Nationals will carry momentum from Sunday’s win over the Dodgers into a must-win series at home against the Atlanta Braves.
The Washington Nationals must win at least two of their next three games.
Yeah, I know, it doesn’t take rocket science to reach that conclusion.
Entering this series, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the Braves in the National League East. Recently, the Nats got as close as 4.0 games back after sweeping the double-header against the Rockies last Wednesday.
Now, the Nationals have a chance to gain those games right back. And it has to happen this week.
The importance of this three-game series cannot be overstated. The amount of leverage that can be gained or lost over the next three days is massive. Not only is it huge from a pure “games gained or games lost” perspective, but the series is amplified with the trade deadline looming on Wednesday at 4 PM ET.
The Nationals and Braves play at 12:05 PM ET on Wednesday, so barring an extra-innings affair, the Nats will know where they stand by the end of that game, with hopefully time to spare for a last-minute deal to go down if needed.
By winning this series, the Nats will gain at least one game on the Braves with seven games against them remaining (four away, three home, all occurring between September 5 and September 15).
Winning the series will also prove to the front office, once and for all, that the Nats are serious contenders for the N.L. East crown and the N.L. pennant. It can give them the confidence to go out and make the Nats the best team they can be for August, September, and hopefully, October.
Losing this series, even two out of three, is catastrophic. It will give serious cushion to Atlanta in the division and would take another herculean effort from the Nats to catch the Braves.
It also plants some doubt into the minds of the front office. Missing out on the division title means a best-case scenario for the playoffs is a one-game Wild Card berth leading into date with the Dodgers in the division series.
If that is the best-case scenario, the front office might be more hesitant to part with notable prospects.
FanGraphs.com gives the Braves a 74% chance to win the division, followed by the Nats with 23%. The Phillies, Mets, and Marlins combine for a whopping 3%, which means this division is just a two-team race.
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No matter how this series ends up, those percentages are going to change drastically. The Nats must draw first blood with Patrick Corbin taking the mound and set the tone for the following two days.