Washington Nationals: Nats Playoff Picture Update

The Washington Nationals are passed the trade deadline and now have two months to secure a playoff spot.  How can they do it?

If you asked a Washington Nationals fan two months ago about their favorite team’s playoff chances, they might have said “negative seven percent.”

At the time, who could fault them?  That team was closer to the Miami Marlins than 1st place in the National League East.  But oh how things can change quickly.

As of August 2nd, the Nationals have a 57-51 record and are tied for 2nd place in the National League Wild Card race with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Fangraphs.com gives the Nationals a 75.5% chance to make the playoffs, with a 62% chance to win one of those two coveted Wild Card spots.

As much as it may hurt fans to admit, winning the division seems far fetched.  The Atlanta Braves have a 7.0 game lead on the Nats and Phillies and have the easiest schedule remaining of those three teams, per Fangraphs’ strength of schedule metric.

The Braves have an 84.1% chance to win the N.L. East, followed by the Nats at 13.5%, with the Phillies, Mets, and Marlins combining for 2.3%.

The Nats indeed have seven more games against the Braves remaining on the schedule.  But to overcome a seven-game deficit, the Nats would need to go no worse than 5-2 against Atlanta, and hope that Atlanta plays significantly worse than the Nats during August and September against other teams.  It’s certainly possible, but don’t get your hopes up.

The Wild Card looks like the Nats’ best chance at a playoff spot.  All of the teams, with realistic chances, competing for the two Wild Card spots are the Nats, Phillies, Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Giants.  All of these teams have at least a 20% chance to earn a Wild Card spot according to FanGraphs.

The Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers are all fighting it out for the N.L. Central, so one team from that group will be ineligible for the Wild Card since they’ll win the division.  Just 1.5 games separate the teams, so it’s anyone’s guess who comes out of that pack.  However, the runner up in the Central will likely earn one of the Wild Card spots.

The Phillies and Giants are tough to peg as well.  The Phillies are loaded with talent, but that talent is not playing well.  Some of their starters, such as Andrew McCutchen and Odubel Herrera, are out for the season. Can the rest of the team regroup and emerge as threats?

The Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball, which halted their plans to sell off key players like Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith.  Is their hot streak for real, or is it just a spike in production that can’t be sustained?

One thing is for sure, and it is that the Nationals will remain a threat, for now, with their new-look bullpen.  If the new bullpen pieces help sustain the team in the late innings, they could go much farther than just the Wild Card.