Washington Nationals World Series: Game 1 features first matchup of aces
The Washington Nationals and Houston Astros are set to square off in Game 1 of the 2019 World Series on Tuesday night.
Max Scherzer will get the Game 1 start for the Washington Nationals as the series will feature a number of races.
But first, let’s take a look at the importance of winning Game 1 of a World Series.
Nearly 65 percent of teams in the history of baseball who won Game 1 of the World Series went on to win the whole thing. And that percentage is even higher for home teams who win Game 1, making this game even more important for the Washington Nationals.
That percent is even higher in the last 22 season with 18 teams winning Game 1 going on to hoist the trophy.
Coincidentally, the Houston Astros were the last team to lose Game 1 of the World Series before coming back to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games in the 2017 World Series.
Whatever the numbers say, every team wants to get off to a good start in a series by winning Game 1.
These two teams have taken different paths to get here with the Astros struggling against the Rays in the ALDS going to a Game 5, and then it took six games for them to dispatch of the New York Yankees in the NLCS.
To this point, the Astros have played one game under the minimum.
The Washington Nationals certainly had to battle through the NLDS going to five games with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But they breezed through the NLCS by sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals.
Washington has the advantage offensively thus far in the postseason with a slash line of .243/.315/.382 compared to .208/.287/.358.
And the Nats have also had the edge in pitching as well with an ERA of 2.90 and a BAA of .186 compared to 3.49 and .223 put up by the Astros pitching staff.
Neither bullpen has been great as the Astros have a 4.08 bullpen ERA in the postseason compared to 4.76 by the Nationals.
Both pitching staffs have done a great job of piling up the strikeouts with a K/9 of 12.30 for the Nats and 11.02 for the Astros.
We all expect this to be a very well-pitched series, and the Game 1 matchup is something pitching nerds like myself dream of.
Gerrit Cole vs. Washington Nationals
The Houston Astros deployed a bullpen game for Game 6 of the ALCS in order to ensure their top ace, Gerrit Cole, was able to start Game 1 of the World Series.
That move paid off and now they’ll have the likely AL Cy Young winner starting Game 1 (or Game 2).
The soon free-agent-to-be has put together a phenomenal season with a 2.50 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 212.1 innings with 326 strikeouts.
He’s been even more dominant in the postseason with a 0.40 ERA in 22.2 innings pitched with 32 strikeouts. Cole has only allowed 1 earned run and 10 hits in three postseason starts.
The Astros big righty has faced the Nationals twice since 2016 and is 1-1 against them with a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings with 10 strikeouts and a .250 BAA.
A lot of Nationals players actually have a good bit of history against Cole.
Most notably, Anthony Rendon is 5-for-13 off Cole with a couple of walks.
Role players such as Matt Adams (4-for-17), Asdrubal Cabrera (2-for-17), and Gerardo Parra (2-for-15) are the Nationals with double-digits at-bats against him.
Adams and Micahel Taylor are the only Nats with a homer off Cole — one each.
Howie Kendrick, Trea Turner, and Ryan Zimmerman have a couple of hits against him in limited at-bats.
Looking at the splits for Cole in 2019, he’s held righties to a .198 average, and he’s actually held lefties to a minuscule .175 average.
Over his career he’s also held lefties to a lower average at .229 compared to .237 for righties.
He’s also been just as good at home (2.63 ERA) as he is on the road (.236 ERA).
If you’re looking for a hole in Cole’s game to try to exploit, good luck.
Max Scherzer vs. Houston Astros
It was another great season for Max Scherzer in 2019 as he posted a 2.92 ERA in 172.1 innings with a WHIP of 1.03 and 243 strikeouts.
However, it was the first time since 2012 that he didn’t eclipse 200 innings as he struggled with back problems in the second half of the season.
It’s hard to ignore the fact that Scherzer was not quite himself when he returned with a 5.16 ERA in five September starts, and then he gave up 3 earned runs in first postseason start.
But he’s seemingly put those concerns to rest having allowed just 1 earned run in his last 15 postseason innings with 21 strikeouts.
His outing against the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS was a thing of beauty allowing just 1 hit and 2 walks over 7 shutout innings with 11 strikeouts.
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That alone is most likely why the Nationals decided to go with him in Game 1 over Stephen Strasburg with both starters on plenty of rest. Maybe too much with Scherzer last pitching on October 13 (nine days ago).
Scherzer has not pitched against the Houston Astros since joining the Washington Nationals in 2015. But several Astros players have seen him before.
Michael Brantley has the most experience against Max with 15 hits in 44 at-bats, including a home run.
Left-handed hitting Josh Reddick surprisingly has owned Scherzer with 5 hits in 11 at-bats off the righty.
Jose Altuve, who has been on fire this postseason, has a couple of hits in 11 at-bats against him, while George Springer is 2-for-6.
This year lefties have hit Scherzer pretty well with a .255 batting average compared to just .193 for righties.
Luckily for Scherzer and the Washington Nationals, the Astros will at most have three lefties in their lineup in Reddick, Brantley, and Yordan Alvarez.
Preview and Prediction
We’ve already talked about the importance of Game 1 in the World Series, and how it’s even more important for the road team.
But I get this feeling this series is going the distance and will be a back-and-forth series.
The Washington Nationals have already fallen behind once in this postseason going down two-games-to-one to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. I don’t think they’re going to panic if they lose Game 1.
I say that to temper the expectations in Game 1 for Nats fans, because as great as Scherzer is, Gerrit Cole has been otherworldly this season.
The best hope for the Nationals in Game 1 is that they can somehow get Cole out after 6 innings and that Scherzer can go seven.
That seems pretty obvious, but the Astros bullpen hasn’t been lights out, so the quicker they get into the bullpen the better. But, of course, that will be the strategy for both teams in this series, which is why the Nats need Scherzer to go at least 7 innings.
And as it usually the key for the Nats offense, Turner and Eaton have to get on base for Rendon and Juan Soto.
Turner has been doing his part hitting .286 in the postseason with 3 walks. And while Eaton has hit nearly as well, he still has an OBP over .300 this postsesaon.
I feel like this is going to be a 2-1 game going into the seventh inning, and whichever starter makes it through the seven, his team will win the game.
Winner: Astros
While I think Scherzer will be great and can hold down the Astros offense, I do worry about how rusty the offense might be after the long layoff and then having to face Cole — that’s a hard task for any lineup.
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There is your preview and prediction for Game 1 of the 2019 World Series. Let us know you thoughts in the comments below and who you think is going to win.