Looking at who should be the Nationals fifth starter

With the Washington Nationals starting rotation set from one to four, the question arises on who should be the fifth starter.

Max Scherzer. Stephen Strasburg. Patrick Corbin. Anibal Sanchez. Now that is arguably the best four man rotation in the National league. The only question that remains for the rotation is who will be the fifth starter? Baring a trade or another free agent signing, it seems likely the Nationals front office will let the trio of Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth once again battle it out for the last spot. While the winner will be decided at the end of Spring Training, here are the details and arguments for all three.

Joe Ross

Ross was a fixture in the Nationals rotation before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. He missed the rest of 2017 and all of 2018 before returning to the field in 2019. Ross struggled when he first came back before settling down after the All Star break. Ross filled in nicely after Max Scherzer went down with an injury. The 26 year old finished the 2019 season 4-4, with a 5.48 ERA, and 57 strikeouts in 64 innings. However in the month of August, Ross looked like his old self as he went 3-0, with a 1.05 ERA, and 16 strikeouts in five starts.

An interesting statistic to take into consideration is that in 2019 Ross struggled when opposing batters faced him for the first and third time through the lineup. Opposing batters hit .289 and .378 when facing Ross for the first and third time respectively. However, Ross owned opposing batters when he faced them for the second time as they only hit .250 and had an OPS of .688. If Ross can fix this statistic, he will be in good shape for next season. The righthy has the most experience of the three and was re-acclimating himself to the majors for the duration of 2019. Expect Ross to look more like his old self in Spring Training as he will have had another off season to recover and build back his strength.

Erick Fedde

Fedde was the Nationals first round pick in 2014 and has struggled to find his footing. He is running out of opportunities to prove he belongs on a big league rotation and this might be his last chance. Fedde finished the 2019 season 4-2, with a 4.50 ERA, and 41 strikeouts in 78 innings. 2019 was a huge step forward as he had career highs in ERA, strikeouts, wins, and WAR. Now some of this is expected as Fedde pitched the most innings in one season in his career.

The 26 year old had a similar season to Ross, as they both struggled with consistency, but had an amazing month of August. In August, Fedde went 3-0, with a 3.18 ERA, and eight strikeouts in three starts.

Fedde seemed to turn the corner as he had the lowest K/9 (4.73) of his career which corresponded with him setting a career best in ERA.  Instead of relying on strikeouts, Fedde trusted his defense and his numbers improved due to this. He held opponents to career lows in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. He also was able to lower his K/BB (1.24) which shows he is improving his command.

Of the three, Fedde was the most consistent and was able to appear in the most innings. This is an ode to his durability. This might be Fedde’s best chance to win spot int he starting rotation.

Austin Voth

The fifth round pick in 2013 has quietly risen through the Nationals farm system and appeared numerous times in the majors in 2019. Voth had a successful 2019 season, be it in a small sample size. In nine games, the 27 year old went 2-1, with a 3.30 ERA, and 44 strikeouts. Voth missed time due to bicep tendinitis.

Voth will need to work on going deeper into games, as in eight starts he only averaged averaged five innings. A huge reason Voth didn’t go deep into games is that opposing batters found success against him when he faces the lineup the third time through. For example, opposing offenses hit .176, .220, and .318 when going through the lineup three times respectively. That is a huge jump from the second to third time that will cost the Nats in tight games.

Voth will also have to prove he can stay healthy and might benefit from starting the season off in the bullpen as the long reliever. While on paper his numbers are the best of the three, he appeared in the least amount of innings and demonstrate his small sample size wasn’t a fluke. Starting off as the long reliever will allow him to test his abilities, and if he succeeds, he can slide in as the fifth starter if the other two stumble.