Ranking All 30 MLB Starting Rotations
30) Baltimore Orioles
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: John Means, Alex Cobb, Wade LeBlanc, Asher Wojciechowski, Tommy Milone
2019 Stats: W/L 36-76, 5.57 ERA, 5.72 FIP, 5.1 fWAR
The O’s rotation will be led by 2019 All-Star, John Means. The 27-year-old was a pleasant surprise for the Orioles, finishing the 2019 season second in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The righty went 12-11, with a 3.60 ERA, and 121 strikeouts. Expect him to build on his successful rookie year. Behind him is nothing but stop gags and question marks. Alex Cobb is looking to bounce back after missing the majority of the 2019 season. The Veteran only appeared in 12.1 innings, where he went 0-2 with a 10.95 ERA.
The Orioles have a promising young group of pitching prospects, but they are still a few years away. In the meantime, Wade LeBlanc, Asher Wojciechowski, and Tommy Milone will all have opportunities to prove themselves.
29) San Fransisco Giants
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Andrew Suarez
2019 Stats: W/L 39-66, 4.77 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.0 fWAR
Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Gausman, and Drew Smyly are all pretty much locks to make the rotation. Samardzija, Guasmna, and Smyly are all on experiencing contracts and with the Giants not expected to contend for a playoff spot, any of those three could be shipped out by the trade deadline.
Johnny Cueto has already been named the Opening Day starter and only appeared in 16 innings. He missed the majority of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The fifth spot is up for grabs, with Andrew Suarez, Trevor Cahil, Logan Webb, and Tyler Anderson all in the running.
28) Seattle Mariners
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, Marco Gonzalez, Kendall Graveman, Taijuan Walker
2019 Stats: W/L 36-56, 5.21 WAR, 5.12 FIP, 5.4 fWAR
While the Mariners rotation was awful in 2019, there is reason to hope. The team signed Taijuan Walker who missed all of 2018 and 2019 with Tommy John. Before the injury, Walker went 9-9, with a 3.49 ERA, and 146 strikeouts in 2017. The 27-year-old will spend the majority of 2020 regaining his strength but, should be a welcomed addition. He joins Marco Gonzalez who is coming off a decent year. In 2019, he went 16-13, with a 3.99 ERA, and 147 strikeouts, but posted a 4.15 FIP.
The Mariners will need more from Japanese standout Yusei Kikuchi and former top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield. Kikuchi struggled in his first year in the majors, finishing 2019 with a 5.46 ERA. Sheffield appeared in eight games, going 0-1, with a 5.50 ERA. Rounding out the rotation is former Oakland Athletic, Kendall Graveman. The rotation has some potential but should still finish towards the bottom in 2020.
27) Los Angeles Angels
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Shohei Ohtani*, Dylan Bundy, Julio Teheran, Andrew Heaney, Matt Andriese, Patrick Sandoval
2019 Stats: W/L 28-60, 5.64 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 3.2 fWAR
Last year, the Angels starting rotation ranked last in fWAR, 29th in ERA, 29th in FIP, 27th in strikeouts, and 29th in LOB%. With one of the worst starting rotation in the league, the Angels did little to fix their major hole. Instead of landing a big fish such as Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, or Hyun-jin Ryu, they signed Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy.
While he never turned into an ace, Teheran was serviceable while with the Braves. He finished 2019 10-11, with a 3.81 ERA, and 162 strikeouts. Teheran will be a vast improvement from last year but, is nowhere near enough. However, the Angels received some good news when GM Billy Epler announced at the end of June that Shohei Ohtani will once again be a two way player in 2020. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which kept him from pitching in all of 2019. His presence on the mound will be a much-needed addition, but he will need to prove he is fully recovered from TJ.
* marks the pitcher is injured but could return this season.
26) Boston Red Sox
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez*, Martín Pérez, Ryan Weber
2019 Stats: W/L 50-50, 4.95 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 10.9 fWAR
After winning the World Series in 2018, the Red Sox rotation took a huge step back in 2019. Fast forward to the upcoming season and the rotation will be even worse. Ace, Chris Sale is out for the season with Tommy John, and the team shipped out David Price in the Mookie Betts trade. Collin McHugh was expected to play a big part in the rotation, but the team announced on Sunday that he was going to miss the season. Eduardo Rodriguez was the team’s 2019 break out star but, tested positive for COVID on July seven. Thankfully, he just recently returned to the team, but will no longer be the team’s Opening Day starter. His presence will be a big boost to the rotation. In the meantime, the team’s number two pitcher will be Nathan Eovaldi who is coming off of an injury-plagued 2019 season. Yikes.
25) Detroit Tigers
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Ivan Nova, Jordan Zimmermann*, Daniel Norris*, Spencer Turnbull
2019 Stats: W/L, 23-81, 5.51 ERA, 4.66 FIP 10.6 fWAR
The Tigers 2020 rotation was a disaster outside of Matthew Boyd. Boyd cooled off down the stretch, but finished the season 9-13, with a 4.56 ERA, and 238 strikeouts. With a shortened season allowing for Boyd to avoid wearing down, expect him to post a career year.
Veteran, Ivan Nova joins Boyd in the rotation. Nova is towards the end of his career, but when he is healthy, he can provide plenty of innings. The 33-year-old is a step up over last year’s starters Edwin Jackson and Ryan Carpenter. Jordan Zimmermann was recently placed on the 45 day IL and will miss the majority if not all of the 2020 season. While he has regressed over the last few years, that is still a big hit.
A thing to keep an eye on for the Tigers is their young and talented pitching prospects. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal could make an appearance, especially towards the end of the season. Overall, the Tigers rotation is full of stopgaps while their young core develops.
24) Kansas City Royals
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Jakob Junis, Jorge Lopez
2019 Stats: W/L 39-70, 5.30 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 5.2 fWAR,
The Royals rotation was one of the worse in 2019. Similar to last year, the rotation will rise and fall depending on how Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery all do. All three have career ERA’s under 4.00, but all struggled at times in 2019. Unfortunately, Keller is currently out with Covid-19, with no timetable for his return.
Similar to the Tigers and Orioles, the Royals have a stacked pitching farm system. The Royals were able to land the top pitching prospect in 2020, Asa Lacy. He joins Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch to form a promising young core. The pitching prospects are a few years away, with Keller, Duffy, and Montgomery leading the rotation in their stead.
23) Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Joe Musgrove, Mitch Keller, Trevor Williams, Derek Holland, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl
2019 Stats: W/L 36-63, 5.40 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 8.2 fWAR
The Pirates rotation took a hit last season when Jameson Taillon was lost for the rest of the year and maybe all of 2020, due to multiple arm injuries. To make matters worse, Chris Archer will miss the 2020 season due to undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.
In the meantime, Joe Musgrave, Trevor Williams, and Mitch Keller will be the face of the rotation. Keller posted an ugly 7.13 ERA but, had a promising 3.19 FIP. This shows that 2019 could have been a fluke and the best of Mitch Keller is yet to come.
When it comes down to the fifth spot, it gets interesting. According to Marty Leap of FanSided’s Rum Bunter,
“Prior to the coronavirus delaying the start of the season it appeared the team would ease Kuhl back into things following Tommy John Surgery and have him start the season in the bullpen or at the Triple-A level. Now, all signs point toward he and Brault piggybacking starts as the team’s 5th starting pitcher.”
22) Colorado Rockies
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: German Márquez, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Chi Chi González/Jeff Hoffman
2019 Stats: W/L 45-62, 5.87 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 6.5 fWAR
After being a key part of the team making the playoffs in 2017 and 2019, the Rockies pitching staff fell apart in 2019. After finishing four in NL Cy Young voting for the 2018 season, ace Kyle Freeland started the 2019 season 2-6, with a 7.13 ERA. This led to him being demoted to Triple-A and he didn’t make it back to the majors till July. He finished the season 3-11, with a 6.73 ERA. Similar to Freeland, Senzatela took a huge step back in 2019. His ERA drastically rose from 4.38 in 2018 to a 6.71 in 2019, while his FIP went from a 4.17 to a 5.44.
While the majority of the rotation struggled last season, Jon Gray was the exception. The 27-year old went 11-8, with a 3.84 ERA, and 150 strikeouts. However, he cannot carry the rotation alone. IT also didn’t help that German Márquez was inconsistent in 2019. However, his 4.06 FIP was better than his 4.76 ERA shows.
Chi Chi González and Jeff Hoffman will battle for the fifth spot and the Rockies could even use six starters. The Rockies rotation will suffer or excel depending on if Freeland and Senzatela can bounce back or not.
21) Miami Marlins
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jose Urena, Elieser Hernández
2019 Stats: W/L 36-71, 4.59 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 8.1 fWAR
This might seem a bit high for the Marlins, but their rotation is full of potential, led by 2019 All-Star, Sandy Alcantara. Last year he went 6-14, with a 3.88 ERA, and 151 strikeouts in 197.1/3 innings. While his peripherals were against him (4.55 FIP, 109 ERA+), 2019 was his first full season in the rotation.
Joining him is Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, and Pablo Lopez. Jose Urena struggled immensely in 2019, posting a 5.21 ERA and 4.74 FIP. He serves as a placeholder while the Marlins top pitching prospects develop. Pablo Lopez’s 4.28 FIP shows that he was better than his 5.09 ERA shows. Caleb Smith has bounced through the minors since 2013, but with the Marlins, he has finally found himself a role in the starting rotation. He was serviceable in 2019, going 10-11, with a 4.52 ERA, and 168 strikeouts.
The fifth spot will come down to one of Nick Neidert/Elieser Hernández/Robert Dugger. Jordan Yamamoto who was thought to be the team’s fifth starter was assigned to the team’s alternate training site. He made his MLB debut with the Marlins last season, going 4-5, with a 4.46 ERA, and 82 strikeouts in 78.2/3 innings. Acquired in the Christian Yelich trade, expect Yamamoto to eventually make his way back to the rotation and be a key piece in the future.
20) Oakland Athletics
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jesús Luzardo, Mike Fiers, A.J. Puk,
2019 Stats: W/L 68-37, 4.02 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 11.8 fWAR
Simply put, the Athletics rotation was hard to rank. They have a rising ace in Sean Manaea, and a reliable veteran in Mike Fiers. Throw in the teams 2019 breakout star Frankie Montas, as well as top pitching prospects A.J. Puk and Jesús Luzardo, and that’s a recipe for success. So what’s the problem?
For starters, last season Montas tested positive for a banned substance and was suspended 80 games because of that. That will undoubtedly affect his performance for the upcoming season. Manaea only appeared in five games last season due to a shoulder injury and will need to prove that he is fully healthy. While Luzardo and Puk have been thriving in the minors, neither are proven commodities at the major leagues. Mike Fiers is the team’s only consistent pitcher. Until the others prove themselves, the Athletics rotation cannot go any higher.
19) San Diego Padres
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies, Joey Lucchesi
2019 Stats: W/L 41-59, 4.66 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 10.1 fWAR,
The Padres starting rotation has come a long way over the last few years and it is still improving. For the time being, Chris Paddack will lead the rotation. He is coming off of a stellar rookie season, in which he went 9-7, with a 3.33 ERA, and 153 strikeouts. His 3.95 FIP backs his current progress. Joining him is Garrett Richards, Zach Davies, Dinelson Lamet, and Joey Lucchesi.
In the wings is uber-prospect, MacKenzie Gore (fifth-best prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline). It is unclear if Gore will finally make his MLB debut this season. If he does, this rotation could move up the rankings.
18) Milwaukee Brewers
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Brett Anderson, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Josh Lindblom, Brandon Woodruff
2019 Stats: W/L 44-40, 4.40 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 8.7 fWAR
The Milwaukee Brewers lack a true ace, but Brandon Woodruff has all of the qualities to take over that role. Last season he went 11-3, with a 3.62 ERA, and 143 strikeouts in 121.2/3 innings. He missed time due to an injury but was able to be the team’s starter for the Wild Card match against the Nationals. In that game, Woodruff impressed, holding the Nats to one run across four innings. Now that he has extended time to recover, expect Woodruff to build upon his successful 2019 season.
Behind Woodruff is plenty of question marks. Brett Anderson, Andrian Houser, Josh Lindblom, and Corbin Burnes are projected to be the teams 2-5 starters. Josh Lindblom is the team’s wild card, having spent the last few years in the KBO. He was named the 2019 KBO MVP and looks to make a home with the Brew Crew. Corbin Burnes has been on fire since training camp started back up. He will be looking to turn a corner after a rough 2019.
17) Toronto Blue Jays
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Matt Shoemaker, Tanner Roark, Trent Thornton, Chase Anderson
2019 Stats: W/L 26-68, 5.25 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 7.1 fWAR
The Toronto Blue Jays made a splash this past off-season by inking Hyun-Jin Ryu to a four-year deal, worth $80 million. The 33-year-old is coming off of a career year where he went 14-5, with a 2.32 ERA, and 163 strikeouts, while finishing second in NL Cy Young voting. He will help bolster a starting staff that was 22nd in ERA and 23rd in FIP in 2019. Ryu will need to prove he can stay fully healthy, as 2019 was the first time since 2014 that he threw over 150 innings in a season.
Joining him is workhorse Tanner Roark. While he is no longer the pitcher he once was, Roark will provide plenty of innings. Since 2016, Roark has thrown 160+ innings a season,
Chase Anderson, Trent Thorton, and Matt Shoemaker round out the rotation. Top pitching prospect Nate Pearson could make an appearance towards the end of the season.
16) Chicago White Sox
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Keuchel, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease
2019 Stats: W/L 48-68, 5.30 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 9.6 fWAR
The rotation took a hit when top pitching prospect, Michael Kopech announced he was opting out of the upcoming season. However, the White Sox have the pitching depth to make up for Kopech’s absence.
Lucas Giolito is the ace of the rotation, finally breaking out in 2019. After posting a 6.13 ERA and 5.56 FIP in 2018, Giolito went 14-9, with a 3.41 ERA, and 228 strikeouts. Joining him is 2015 AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, veteran Gio Gonzalez, and Reynaldo Lopez. Dylan Cease is projected to be the team’s fifth starter. Keuchel and Gonzalez are both innings eaters who add veteran and playoff experience to a team looking to take the next step.
15) Philadelphia Phillies
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta
2019 Stats: W/L 49-52, 4.64 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 7.6 fWAR
The Phillies starting rotation was the team’s biggest weakness in 2019. In order to fix the issue, the Phillies opened up their wallers and signed Zack Wheeler to a five-year deal. Throughout his time with the New York Mets, Wheeler flashed his tremendous upside but was never able to fully harness it. In five seasons with the Mets, Wheeler is 44-38, with a 3.77 ERA, and 726 strikeouts in 749.1/3 innings. The Phillies are paying him $118 million to be the team’s number two starter and are hoping they can get more out of him, then the Mets were able to.
He will join Aaron Nola, the ace of the team. After placing third in NL Cy Young voting in 2018, Nola took a step back in 2019. He went 12-7, with a 3.87 ERA, and 229 strikeouts. His 4.03 FIP was decent but nowhere near his mark of 3.01 from 2018. With Wheeler in the mix, Nola no longer has to carry the staff by himself. Expect for the 27-year-old to bounce back.
Rounding out the rotation is Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, and either Vince Velasquezor Nick Pivetta. Arrieta is far gone from his 2015 NL Cy Young form, but when healthy he can still eat innings. His 2019 season ended early, due to having surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. With the season delayed because of COVID, Arrieta has had extra time to recover.
14) Minnesota Twins
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: José Berríos, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey
2019 Stats: W/L 67-39, 4.19 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 16.6 fWAR
The Minnesota Twins rotation as solid in 2019, but during the off-season, they went through plenty of turnover. Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez both left in free agency, while Michael Pineda has 36 games left on his 60 game suspension. In their place are veterans Homer Bailey, Rich Hill, and Kenta Maeda, who will be joining Jake Odorizzi and José Berríos.
Berríos is the ace of the team and coming off of a solid 2019 season. He went 14-8, with a 3.68 ERA, and 195 strikeouts. The 26-year-old will benefit from the shortened season due to the fact that over the last few seasons, he tends to fall off after the All-Star break. While Gibson and Perez both walked in free agency, the Twins were able to re-sign Odorizzi, who posted a 3.51 ERA the year prior. He will slot in as the team’s number two starter.
What holds the Twins rotation from moving up any higher is the backend. Kenta Maeda who was acquired in the Mookie Betts blockbuster had a decent 2019 season, but might be more suited for the bullpen. He went 10-8, with a 4.04 ERA, and 169 strikeouts. However, in the 2019 NLDS against the Nationals, Maeda was untouchable when coming out of the bullpen. He was used entirely in relief, appearing in four games and allowing zero runs. He struck out seven while only allowing one hit. Rich Hill is 40 and only appeared in 13 games last season due to an arm injury. When healthy, Hill is productive but, has battled injuries the last few years. Homer Bailey rounds out the rotation and posted a 4.57 ERA in 2019. This is a huge step up from the previous four seasons, where Hosmer finished with a 6.09, 6.43, 6.65, and 5.56 ERA respectively. Has he finally turned the corner or was this merely a case of flash in the pan?
13) Chicago Cubs
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, José Quintana*, Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills
2019 Stats: W/L 41-47, 4.18 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 15.7 fWAR
The Cubs rotation took a hit before the season even started. Jose Quintana* is on the IL with a thumb injury from doing dishes. This is not a typo.
In the meantime, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester will lead the rotation in his stead. Lester regressed in 2019 and has seen his FIP rise above a 4.00 the last three seasons. After finishing ninth in NL Cy Young voting in 2018, he went 13-10, with a 4.46 ERA, and 165 strikeouts. Over the last three years, Kyle Hendricks ERA has gone up (3.03, 3.44, 3.46), but at the same time, his FIP has gotten better (3.88, 3.78, 3.61). The 30-year-old has been the team’s most consistent pitcher over the last few years and the Cubs will lean heavily on him in 2020.
Yu Darvish is the team’s wild card. After signing a six-year deal with the team in 2018, Darvish has gone 7-11, with a 4.16 ERA, and 278 strikeouts. He missed the majority of the 2018 season due to arm and elbow injuries. While he looked more like his former self in 2019, Darvish
Rounding out the rotation is Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana’s replacement, Alec Mills. The two are in a difficult position
12) Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Merill Kelly
2019 Stats: W/L 56-51, 4.23 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 11.0 fWAR
Arizona completely revamped their rotation since their 2017 playoff run. Robbie Ray is the only starter from Arizona’s playoff team still on the roster. Despite losing all of that talent (Patrick Corbin, Zack Greinke), the front office has done a great job of keeping the staff competitive. Arizona’s front office struck gold this off-season when they signed playoff legend, Madison Bumgarner, to a five-year deal. Bumgarner is finally healthy after missing time due to injuries in 2017 and 2018. Last season he went 9-9, with a 3.90 ERA, and 203 strikeouts. His 3.90 FIP backs his recent success.
Joining Bumgarner in the rotation is strikeout artist Robbie Ray. Ray will be the team’s number two and is coming off of another solid season. In 2019 he went 12-8, with a 4.38 ERA, and 235 strikeouts. Ray has recorded 200+ strikeouts in three of the last four seasons and will form a quality one-two punch with Bumgarner. Rounding out the rotation is Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, and Merill Kelly. Kelly and Weaver provide plenty of depth while Gallen is the deal-breaker. Gallen was acquired last season in a trade with the Marlins and in 80 innings between the two teams, had plenty of success. He went 3-6, with a 2.81 ERA, and 96 strikeouts. Now it is time to see if Gallen can improve on his successful first stint in the majors.
11) St. Louis Cardinals
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez
2019 Stats: W/L 55-50, 3.78 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 10.8 fWAR
St. Louis returns their entire 2019 starting rotation. Adam Wainwright is 38 and no longer the ace of the team. That title belongs to Jack Flaherty. After posting a 4.46 ERA in his first 18 starts, Flaherty turned it on after the All-Star break, posting a .91 ERA in the second half of the season. The 24-year-old finished 2019 11-8, with a 2.75 ERA, and 231 strikeouts.
Rounding out the rotation is Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, and Carlos Martinez. Due to the season being delayed, Mikolas was given extra time to recover from the forearm injury he suffered back in February. St. Louis will be happy to have the innings eater at full strength. Hudson is the team’s wild card. Last season, he went 16-7, with a 3.35 ERA, and 136 strikeouts. However, he posted an ugly 4.93 FIP. 2020 will tell if last year was a fluke or not for the 25-year-old.
10) Texas Rangers
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles
2019 Stats: W/L 45-60, 5.37 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 11.9 fWAR
The 2019 season, saw Mike Minor and Lance Lynn both post-career years at the age of 32 and 33 respectively. Now add two-time ALL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, with veterans Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyes.
The rotation hinges on Lynn and Minor repeating their 2019 success while hoping Kluber can bounce back. He missed the majority of the 2019 season with multiple injuries. The 34-year-old only appeared in seven games last year and finished with a 5.80 ERA. However, Kluber is only two years removed from going 20-7, with a 2.89 ERA, and 265 strikeouts. This is a high risk, high reward move that could pay dividends.
Lance Lynn and Mike Minor are likely to regress, but by how much is the real question. For now, this seems like the perfect ranking for the Rangers.
9) Atlanta Braves
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz, Kyle Wright
2019 Stats: W/L 60-46, 4.20 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 11.2 fWAR
The Braves signed veteran Cole Hamels, to help mentor Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, and Mike Foltynewicz. Hamels is currently out till the end of August and while his absence will be felt, the Braves still have a talented pitching staff. 22-year-old Mike Soroka impressed in his rookie season, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. He went 15-5, with a 2.79 ERA, and 163 strikeouts.
Joining him is Max Fried who after struggling early on in his career, was finally able to put it all together. He finished 17-5, with a 4.02 ERA, and 173 strikeouts. His 3.72 FIP backs his impressive performance. The Braves rotation hangs on which version of Foltynewicz shows up.
8) Houston Astros
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Josh James, Framber Valdez
2019 Stats: W/L 79-37, 3.61 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 19.3 fWAR
The Astros rotation took a huge hit, losing ace Gerrit Cole to the New York Yankees. While both Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are both on the backends of their careers, they are the only sure things in the team’s rotation. Lance McCullers Jr. is finally back after missing all of 2019 with Tommy John and was promising early on in his career.
Verlander was slated to miss the beggining of the season due to a groin injury but, instead is back at full strength. The reigning AL Cy Young winner proved he can still pitch at a high level despite being 37. Last season, he went 21-6, with a 2.58 ERA, and 300 strikeouts. Zack Greinke was sharp in his first year with the Astros, going 8-1, with a 3.02 ERA, and 52 strikeouts in 10 starts. The two future Hall of Famers will carry the pitching staff as far as they can, but they will need Josh James, and Framber Valdez to step up.
7) New York Yankees
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Gerrit Cole, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka*, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery
2019 Stats: W/L 60-38, 4.51 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 10.6 fWAR.
The Evil Empire is officially back! The Yankees went back to their old ways, signing Gerrit Cole to a massive nine-year contract, worth $324 million. Unfortunately, the rest of the Yankees rotation is full of question marks. Luis Severino will miss the entire season due to surgery and Masahiro Tanaka’s status is up in the air after being hit in the head with a ball.
Gerrit Cole is coming off of a career year, going 20-5, with a 2.50 ERA, and a ridiculous 326 strikeouts. His presence alone, immediately makes the Yankees rotation one of the best in the league. Joining Cole is J.A. Happ, James Paxton, and Mike Montgomery. Paxton impressed in his first season with the Yankees and will fill in for Severino as the team’s number two. However, since 2017, Paxton’s ERA and FIP have slowly gotten worse. While the Yankees rotation is much improved because of the addition of Cole, without Tanka and Severino, the rotation cannot be ranked any higher.
6) Cincinnati Reds
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani*, Wade Miley
2019 Stats: 48-54, 4.12 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 14.9 fWAR
Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley is arguably the deepest rotation in the league. The biggest question mark surrounding the rotation is Bauer. As recent as 2018, Bauer was one of the best pitchers in the league, going 12-6, with a 2.21 ERA, and 221 strikeouts. However, when he was shipped to Cincinnati at last year’s trade deadline, he struggled. In 10 starts, Bauer went 2-5, with a 6.39 ERA, and 68 strikeouts. Depending on which version of Bauer shows up, the Reds rotation can quickly move up the rankings.
After struggling with the Yankees, Sonny Gray was able to rebound in his first year with the Reds, going 11-8, with a 2.87 ERA, and 205 strikeouts. Impressed, the team named him the 2020 Opening Day starter and he was lights out. Gray earned the win, allowing only one run in six innings. He also struck out nine while only walking two.
Unfortunately, DeSclafani was placed on the 10 day IL which will hurt the team’s depth. But a big four of Gray, Miley, Bauer, and Castillo is one of the best in the league.
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw*, Dustin May, Julio Urias, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling
2019 Stats: W/L 62-32, 3.11 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 19.7 fWAR
The Dodgers rotation took a hit after losing Hyun-Jin Ryu in free agency, and the announcement that veteran David Price opted out of the 2020 season. They also shipped out Kenta Maeda to the Twins as part of the Mookie Betts trade. Despite that, the Dodgers rotation is full of talent highlighted by emerging ace, Walke Beuhler. Beuhler followed up his impressive rookie season by going 14-4, with a 3.26 ERA, and 215 strikeouts. His outstanding 3.03 FIP shows that there is even more to come.
Ross Stripling will replace long time ace, Clayton Kershaw in the rotation for the time being. Kershaw was placed on the IL Thursday with back spasms. The team’s top pitching prospect Dustin May will have big shoes to fill but, looked the part on opening day. Replacing Kershaw for the team’s opener, May went 4.1/3 innings, allowing only one run, while striking out four. Once Kershaw returns, this rotation will be even better.
4) Cleveland Indians
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Zach Plesac, Adam Plutko
2019 Stats: W/L 62-51, 3.81 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 17.9 fWAR
Despite shipping out ace Corey Kluber and workhorse Trevor Bauer in the past year, the Indian’s rotation is still one of the best in the AL. This is in thanks to ace Mike Clevinger, rising star Shane Beiber, and veteran Carlos Carrasco.
Mike Clevinger took the next step in 2019, finishing the season 13-4, with a 2.71 ERA, and 169 strikeouts in 21 starts. According to Blake Ruane of SB Nation’s, Let’s Go Tribe,
“It was easily the best stretch of Clevinger’s career thus far, made possible by career-low walk and home run rates and a career-high strikeout rate. One of the keys to this stretch of success was his four-seam fastball, which we’ve already identified as the most valuable pitch thrown by the Indians in 2019. The velocity on his fastball has been increasing with each successive season, according to Baseball Savant, from 92.5 MPH in 2017 to 95.4 MPH in 2019. In a 2018 interview with The Athletic, Clevinger attributed the rise in his fastball velocity to retooled mechanics, and the results speak for themselves. Opposing hitters batted .192 against his fastball in 2019 (compared to .263 in 2018) and his whiff rate was up to 30% (20.4% in 2018).”
The 29-year-old is fully healthy and will be looking to build on his excellent campaign. Joining him is co-ace, Shane Beiber. Beiber took over the rotation while Clevinger dealt with injuries during the first half of the season. He went 15-8, with a 3.28 ERA, and 259 strikeouts, while posting a 3.32 FIP.
3) New York Mets
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Micahel Wacha, Rick Porcello
2019 Stats: W/L 54-44, 3.84 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 19.7 fWAR
For the last few years, the New York Mets have been in the running for the top pitching staff in the league. But similar to the Dodgers and Indians, the Mets starting rotation has seen some turnover since last season. Mainly, the team lost Zack Wheeler to the Phillies and found out that Noah Syndergaard will miss all of the 2020 season with Tommy John. This keeps the Mets rotation from being any higher. But despite the turmoil, the Mets still boast an elite staff, led by the best pitcher in the league (sorry Gerrit Cole fans), Jacob deGrom.
After being a promising pitcher in the Mets rotation, deGrom has been nearly untouchable since 2018, winning the last two NL Cy Young awards. He is coming off of a season where he went 11-8, with a 2.43 ERA, and 255 strikeouts. He had a 167 ERA+ and 2.67 FIP, while also being worth 8.2 bWAR.
Joining deGrom is last year’s trade acquisition, Marcus Stroman, off-season signees Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello, as well as Steven Matz.
Stroman spent 2019 with the Blue Jays and Mets, going 10-13, with a 3.22 ERA, and 159 strikeouts. Once arriving in New York, Stroman increased his K.9 up from 7.1 to 9.1., but his FIP also jumped from a 3.51 to a 4.15. Steven Matz returns, having been in the Mets rotation since 2015. He owns a career ERA of 4.21, but after battling injuries, has proven over the last few years that he is finally healthy.
New comber, Rick Porcello is no longer the pitcher that won the 2016 AL Cy Young, but when healthy, he can still provide the Mets with quality innings. Rounding out the rotation is Micahel Wacha. He never lived up to his potential with the Cardinals, but similar to Porcello will provide the Mets another quality starter.
2) Tampa Bay Rays
Projected Starting Rotation: Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos,
2019 Stats: W/L 40-35, 3.64 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 17.6 fWAR
The Tampa Bay Rays rotation was elite in 2019, led by the trio of Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow. Charlie Morton had a breakout season with the Rays, finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. The 36-year old went 16-6, with a 3.05 ERA, and 240 strikeouts. He posted career highs in innings, strikeouts, wins, ERA, WHIP, FIP, fWAR, and K/9. Morton showed no signs of slowing down and should once again lead the rotation.
2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell, battled injuries during the 2019 season and had a down year. Now he is fully healthy and should go back to being his Cy Young self. That year (2018), he went 21-5, with a 1.89 ERA, and 221 strikeouts, while also finishing with a 2.94 FIP.
The wild card of the rotation is Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow started the 2019 season on a tear and through the first two months was the best pitcher in the league. Glasnow started 6-1, with a 1.86 ERA, and 55 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he landed on the IL and didn’t return till the end of the season. With COVID pushing back the 2020 season by a few months, Glasnow has had plenty of time to fully recover. Despite his injury, another thing to keep an eye on is that before arriving in Tampa, Glasnow struggled in the few times he made the pros with the Pirates.
Outside of the big three, the Rays rotation will be joined by Ryan Yarbrough. In 2019, Yarbrough bounced between being a fulltime starter and the teams “bulk starter”. (The Rays use an opener and Yarbrough would usually be handed the ball after and pitch the bulk of the game). Now heading into 2020, Yarbough looks to join the starting rotation fulltime. Last year he went 11-6, with a 4.13 ERA, and 117 strikeouts, while posting an impressive 3.55 FIP.
It will be interesting to see if the Rays use a fifth starter or choose to continue their opener strategy.
1) Washington Nationals
Projected 2020 Starting Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Austin Voth
2019 Stats: W/L 66-36, 3.53 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 21.4 fWAR
Some will believe I allowed bias to cloud my judgment, but the truth is that the Washington Nationals rotation speaks for itself. Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer is the team’s ace. The three-time Cy Young winner had another productive year in 2019, going 11-7, with a 2.92 ERA, and 243 strikeouts, while leading the league in FIP with a 2.45. 2019 was the first time in his career that he landed on the IL. He suffered back injuries down the stretch and missed his World Series Game Five start due to a neck injury. The extended time off will allow for Scherzer to fully recover and go back to his old self. Despite the injuries, Scherzer still finished third in NL Cy Young voting.
Following Scherzer is 2019 World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg. After years of battling injuries, Strasburg was finally able to stay healthy in 2019. He finished the season 18-6, with a 3.32 ERA, and 251 strikeouts, but really took his game to another level in the playoffs. The 30-year-old finished the team’s World Series run, 5-0, with a 1.98 ERA, and 47 strikeouts in 36.1 innings. This led to him opting out of his contract and re-signing with the team for seven years worth $245 million.
Patrick Corbin is the best number three starter in the game. Many sports analysts were skeptical after Corbin signed a six-year deal worth $140 million with the Nationals. The lefty lived up to the contract and then some. In his first year with the team, he went 14-7, with a 3.25 ERA, and 238 strikeouts.
The veteran Anibal Sanchez is the team’s fifth starter. No longer relying on power, Sanchez has reinvented himself as a pitcher that uses finesse. After starting the 2019 season 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA he was placed on the IL. Once he returned, Sanchez went to work and finished the season 11-7, with a 3.85 ERA, 134 strikeouts. In-Game One of the 2019 NLCS, Sanchez had a no-hitter through 7.2/3 innings, before allowing a single to Carlos Martinez.
One thing to keep an eye on is Sanchez’s peripherals. While he was able to lower his K/BB from the season before, his K/9 decreased. Sanchez also saw his FIP balloon from a 3.62 to a 4.44. According to Fangraphs, his 4.44 FIP was below average.
The only weakness in the Nationals rotation is their fifth starter. The fifth starter was originally Joe Ross, but he announced he was opting out. Now, the fifth spot will go to Austin Voth.