Jordan Zimmermann. Zack Greinke. Blake Snell. Stop pulling starting pitchers who are dealing early because analytics say so.
Analytic departments are a crazy thing and have completely reshaped baseball, sometimes for the worse. This was on full display during game six of the World Series. Tampa Bay Rays starter, Blake Snell was absolutely dealing. Through 5.1 innings, he only allowed two hits and struck out nine, with his pitch count sitting at a measly 73. He had just given up his second hit of the game and Mookie Betts was due up. The next three batters of Betts, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner were 0-6 against Snell with six strikeouts. So what did Tampa’s manager Kevin Cash do? He pulled Snell. I understand hindsight is 50/50, but the baseball world was on fire as soon as he made his decision, myself included. So what happened? In came Nick Anderson who was lights out in the regular season, but had given up a run in his last sixth playoff appearances. To no surprise, he immediately gave up a double to Betts. Then he followed this up with a wild pitch to score the runner on third. Seager followed this up with a grounder to first but Betts beat the throw at the plate. In a blink of an eye, Tampa went from being up 1-0, to being behind 2-1. L.A. never relinquished the lead and closed out the series in six games.
While Kevin’s decision was egregious, it was not the first time a manager didn’t trust his starter in the postseason and cost his team the game. In fact, Nationals fans have been on both sides of managers losing faith.
Game Two of 2014 NLDS
October 4, 2014. The Giants are up 1-0 in the best of five series and Washington is looking to tie things up. On the mound for the Nats is Jordan Zimmerman and he is dominating the San Francisco Giants hitters. Entering the ninth he was three outs away from a complete-game shutout. He started off the top of the ninth inning by striking out Matt Duffy and then getting Gregor Blanco to fly out. Then Joe Panik came up to the plate. This at-bat changed everything for the Nats. Zimmermann walked Panic on five pitches. Out came manager Matt Williams and Zimmermann’s outing was over. In came Drew Storen and he had another playoff meltdown. The Giants tied the game and went on to win it in the eighteenth inning, thanks to a Brandon Belt blast. Washington would go on to lose the series in four games.
Game Seven of 2019 World Series
Zack Greinke was filthy during game seven of the World Series and through the first six innings, the Nationals offense had no answers for the veteran. Greinke had a one-hitter entering the seventh inning before Anthony Rendon launched a solo shot off of him to cut the Astros lead in half. Greinke followed this up with a walk to Juan Soto before manager A.J. Hinch came out and pulled his starter. Greinke had only allowed two hits, walked two, and struck out three. Despite this, Hinch decided to hand the ball to Will Harris with Howie Kendrick coming up. Kendrick then banged Harris’s cutter off of the rightfield foul pole to put the Nats on top.
Sometimes all it takes to get back into the game is for an opposing starter who has baffled hitteres to be pulled early.
Washington went on to win the game 6-2 and more importantly the team’s first ever World Series title. Not only did Hinch pull Greinke, he decided to not bring in ace Gerrit Cole.
Analytic departements are here to help, but sometimes just trust your gut.