Nationals: A Perfect Plan For The 2020-2021 Off-Season Part 1

MLB free agency has officially begun. Teams have already declined or accepted player options, while also handing out qualifying offers. This winter will be slow, but there is plenty of talent on the open market, especially for the Washington Nationals.

After winning the World Series in 2019, the Washington Nationals had a very disappointing 2020 season. The front office decided to let superstar Anthony Rendon walk and left the hot corner to veteran Asdrubal Cabrera and top prospect Carter Kieboom. This decision backfired and Washington received next to little production from third base. Third base wasn’t the team’s only weakness.

Ace Stephen Strasburg missed most of the season due to injury and the backend of the rotation fell apart. Joe Ross will be back next season after opting out of 2020, but Washington will still need a fifth starter. The bullpen is still a mess, but a few players namely Tanner Rainey and Kyle Finnegan, stepped up.

On Thursday, the front office declined the team 2021 options for Adam Eaton and Anibal Sanchez, making both free agents. Eaton’s defense deteriorated quickly last season and he became a liability at times in the field. Juan Soto needs protection in the lineup and there will be a few power bats on the open market that can play left. With plenty of holes and only just over $47 million to work with, Washington is facing an upwards battle back to contention. However, my free agent plan will get the job done. First up, position players.

A World Series MVP

After rejecting the options on Adam Eaton, Anibal Sanchez, Eric Thames, and Howie Kendrick, Washington has just over $47 million to spend before going over the luxury tax, according to Sportrac. With plenty of holes, the Washington Nationals will need to be frugal with their off-season spending, but the first order of business should be adding another big bat. Juan Soto needs protection in the lineup. Plain and simple. Outside of him, his only consistent help has been Trea Turner who posted a career year of his own at the plate. While dynamic, the two are not enough to carry the current Nationals offense.

Enter George Springer. Put away the pitchforks and torches and hear me out. Yes, he was a key component of the Houston Astros team that won the World Series in 2017, that was also, more importantly, stealing signs. Despite this, his most recent playoff run should go to show that he can still play at a high level without trashcans. Springer is only 31 and will provide a huge boost to the offense. He finished the season hitting .265, with 14 homers, 32 RBIs, and an OPS of .899.

While Springer can leadoff, the team should look at having Victor Robles starting things off. Many in the front office have seen him as the future leadoff hitter and for good reasons. He is one of the fastest players in the league and is a former five-star prospect. Consistency and strikeouts have plagued the 23-year-old, but he still has the tools to put it all together. Following Robles should be Turner, Soto, and Springer, allowing for the Nationals to have the power and production they were missing last season.

Springer will undoubtedly be the top outfielder on the open market, but if his price tag is too high,  Washington should target his teammate Michael Brantley. MLB Trade Rumors projects Springer will sign a five-year deal worth $125 million, compared to Brantley signing a two-year deal worth $28 million. The veteran continues to hit at a high level and has yet to show signs of slowing down due to age. Last season the 33-year old hit .300, with five homers, 22 RBIs, and an OPS of .840. In the outfield, he had two outfield assists and five DRS. Brantley primarily played left field and this can allow for Soto to move to right field full time, a position where the superstar looks more comfortable. The only downside to Brantley is his injury issue.

Much Needed Lineup Protection

Ryan Zimmerman is at the end of his career and hasn’t announced if he will be returning or retiring. Even if he returns, the Washington Nationals will need a first baseman of the future and that is where the Pittsburgh Pirates come in. The Pirates are entering a full rebuild and Josh Bell doesn’t match their timetable. The 28-year-old had a down year in 2020, but in 2019 he hit .277 with 37 homers, 116 RBIs, and an OPS of .936. Similar to Gerrit Cole, Austin Meadows, and Tyler Glasnow,  a change of scenery would benefit Bell. With Washington, Bell would provide plenty of power from the middle of the lineup and he wouldn’t be leaned on to carry the load. Defensively, Bell struggles, which can be seen by his career -32 DRS. The Washington Nationals should roll the dice on Bell whose stock dropped significantly, but has a high ceiling.

Third base has been a huge conundrum since Anthony Rendon left. Asdrubal Cabrera is a free agent and will be playing elsewhere next season. Top prospect Carter Kieboom struggled mightily at the plate and might end up being sent back to the minors. The third base market is thin at best, making the trade market the best possible option. However, trading for players such as Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado will damage an already empty farm system. Plus, both will be rentals. Bryant has one year left on his contract and Arenado has an option after 2021.

Give Kieboom another shot. Yes, he looked lost at the plate last year. He hit .202, with nine RBIs, and an OPS of .556. Yuck. However, not all players hit the ground running. It took Lucas Giolito, a former top prospect in baseball a few years in the minors before he finally broke out. Kieboom has nothing left to prove in the minors and the team needs to know if he is the guy. Give him first crack. On the plus side, Kieboom’s glove really showed up in 2020. He had five DRS and a UZR of .8. Kieboom had to learn third on the fly. He is a natural shortstop but had to switch positions due to the presence of Trea Turner. Seeing Kieboom finally come into his own defensively at third was encouraging.

Necessary Depth

Luis Garcia is seen by some as the future at second, but Washington might look for an upgrade and send Garcia back to the minors to continue his development. He hit .276, but lacked power and his OPS of .668 is worrisome. While he is sent back to the minors, hand Starlin Castro the reigns at third next season. Before he broke his wrist, he was hitting .267, with two homers, and four RBIs. Last season the Washington Nationals lacked players that we’re able to consistently get on base. Castro excelled at that before going on the IL. This past postseason, teams continued to come up short due to a lack of consistency at the plate. Tampa Bay in particular was relying mainly relying on one guy to carry the load. While Castro doesn’t provide a ton of power, his ability to get on base will come in handy.

If Zimmerman doesn’t retire, expect him back on the team next season. Josh Harrison was already re-signed, filling the National’s main utility player role. Andrew Stevenson will be the fourth outfielder moving forward, while Yan Gomes will be the backup catcher. A prime candidate to fill the role of a power bench bat should be Mitch Moreland. He recently had his option declined by the San Diego Padres. Moreland spent last season with the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres hitting .265, with 10 homers, 29 RBIs, and an OPS of .894. The 2016 Gold Glover isn’t the defender he once was, however, he is still reliable. He had a DRS of one and a UZR of .1. Keep in mind, if a Bell trade doesn’t work out, Moreland could platoon with Zimmerman at first. This would keep both healthy and allow for the team to play matchup.

Here is what the Washington Nationals lineup and bench will look like after the changes.

2021 Projected Starting Lineup:

Victor Robles, CF

Trea Turner, SS

Juan Soto, RF

George Springer/Michael Brantley, LF

Josh Bell, 1B

James McCann, C

Starlin Castro, 2B

Carter Kieboom, 3B

Bench:

Josh Harrison, IF

Andrew Stevenson, OF

Yan Gomes, C

Mitch Moreland, 1F

Ryan Zimmerman, IF

These changes will give the Nationals the best shot at being able to compete in 2021 while keeping the team just under the luxury tax.