Nationals: DoD writers give thoughts on burning questions for Washington
George Springer, Marcell Ozuna, or Michael Brantley
Max Rayman:
George Springer would be the obvious answer, but his price tag will probably be more than what Washington is willing to spend. After his monster postseason performance, he was able to shop the baseball world that he can still perform at a high level without the assistance of trashcans. With the Mets having ample money to spend, who have frequently mentioned in Springer rumors, Washington should set their eyes on his teammate, Michael Brantley.
Brantley is what I like to call a professional hitter. Think Daniel Murphy. Over his 12 year career, Brantley is hitting .297, with 114 homers, 640 RBIs, an OPS of .794, and a wRC+ of 117. After missing the majority of the 2016 and 2017 seasons, Brantley has bounced back in a major way over the last two years with Houston. During his tenure with the Astros, Brantley hit .309, with 27 homers, 112 RBIs, an OPS of .867, and a wRC+ of 154.
According to MLB Trade Rumors, Houston has started negotiating with the veteran on a contract extension. No surprise there.
Signing Brantley does come with a downside, his injury history. He only appeared in 11 and 90 games in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Since then, Brantley has been able to stay healthy, but he is on the wrong side of 30. Washington cannot afford to have any setbacks from their big bats.
James Simmons:
I agree with Max that George Springer is the obvious answer. And the correct answer. The combination of speed, power, and defensive prowess are what the Nationals need to get back to the playoffs.
Springer can hit in the three-hole ahead of Juan Soto, or could move into the leadoff position pushing Trea Turner down the lineup a little. During his seven years with the Houston Astros, all Springer did was get on base and score runs. He is definitely the table setter the Nationals need.
He will be expensive, but with Max Scherzer and his $34.5M contract coming off the books after next year, the team has a little leeway.
Michael Brantley is a cheaper option and could be had on a two year deal. I love the comparison Max makes to Daniel Murphy. If Brantley were guaranteed to hit .329 with an OPS of .930 like Murphy did in his time with the Nats, he’d be ideal. Unfortunately, Brantley turns 34 next season and played more DH than outfield last year with the Houston Astros.
Carter Kieboom, Starlin Castro, Justin Turner, different free-agent option
James Simmons:
I am not sold Carter Kieboom is the third baseman of the future nor do I think the Nationals should give up hope on the former first round pick. Kieboom has only 165 plate appearances under his belt.
Kieboom has had his struggles, collecting just three extra base hits in those plate appearances and making seven errors in just 128 chances in his time split between third base and shortstop.
There is also an abundance of potential here. I refuse to believe Kieboom is a AAAA player, better than a Triple-A guy, not quite MLB caliber. He hit .303 with an OPS of .902 a year ago in Fresno and given ample time at the big league level, he’ll grow into the player the Nationals drafted.
The Nationals will not be giving Carter Kieboom a long leash. For his sake, either he or the Nats need to get out of the gate fast, to ensure there is no turnover at the hot corner. I am going with Kieboom to begin the year at third base.
Max Rayman:
Now say it with me. Starlin Castro. Starlin Castro. Starlin Castro. In 2020, outside of Juan Soto and Trea Turner, the Nationals lacked consistency from the lineup. This became even more of an issue when Castro broke his wrist and missed the rest of the season.
In 16 games before going on the IL, Castro hit .267, with two homers, four RBIs, and a .752 OPS. Not gaudy numbers, but Castro was able to get on base. Starting Castro and using Kieboom on the bench adds a one-year stopgap, while the team’s former top prospect continues to adapt to MLB level pitching.
Carter Kieboom was lost at the plate in 2020. Plain and simple. The bright-side was his glove. After learning a new position on the fly (he’s a natural shortstop learning the hot corner) he posted positive defensive metrics. He had five DRS and a .8 UZR.
Unfortunately, Washington does not have the time to be patient with the 23-year-old. While he only has 165 at-bats at the MLB level, Kieboom will shortly have to either sink or swim.
The final addition(s) to the bullpen.
Max Rayman:
The ninth-inning guy is already on the team and that’s Tanner Rainey. In 20.1 innings last season, Rainey went 1-1, with a 2.66 ERA, 32 strikeouts, and a 3.78 FIP. In his second full season in the majors, he set career highs in ERA, FIP, WHIP, K/9, and LOB%. Keep in mind, this was during a 60 game season and Rainey ended the year on the IL. Despite this, Rainey was Washington’s most consistent reliever for 2020, stranding 96.2% of the runners he inherited. He needs to work on his control and he tends to give up the long ball. Last season, Rainey allowed only six runs, but gave up four homers. Despite this, he is already making strides in his consistency. He was able to lower his walk rate and raise his strikeout rate from 2019 to 2020.
2019 2020
BB/9: 7.1 3.1
K/9: 13.8 14.2
The Nationals may attempt to start the season with Daniel Hudson once again in the closer role. If that is the case, Rainey will be used for high leverage situations. Besides Hudson, Washington will also need a huge bounce-back season from Will Harris.
Hoping both Hudson and Harris bounce back is a risk, so in the meantime, the Nationals should target another reliable releiver in free agency. Enter Brad Hand. The Indians just declined his 10 million dollar option and he is now a free agent. The former Indians closer is coming off of a stellar 2020 campaign that saw him go 2-1, with a 2.05 ERA, and 29 strikeouts. He also went a perfect 16-16 in save situations. Sadly, Hand fell apart for the Indians in the Wild Card matchup against the Yankees. Hand would replace Sean Doolittle as the team’s go to lefty. Keep in mind, Hand could outprice himself from D.C. If that is the case, keep an eye on Greg Holland and Aaron Loup. Also, don’t rule out a reunion with the Dr. himself.
James Simmons:
How many years has the bullpen been a work in progress? Coming into last year I thought the bullpen was finally going to be stable. I was wrong. With the expectation there will be a lot of free agents on the open market (non-tenders hit in a couple of weeks), I wouldn’t be surprised if general manager Mike Rizzo waits until late February and signs a handful to compete for a spot in the bullpen.
Relatively speaking, the Nationals already have a lot of money invested in the bullpen (the Rays made the World Series and the highest-paid reliever was making $1.5M). While bringing in an Alex Colome or a Brad Hand would be great, I don’t see the Nationals spending the money to do so.
With Tanner Rainey and Daniel Hudson as the presumed closers and Will Harris the setup man, the team should be looking at another Kyle Finnegan type. A cheap, reliable arm.
Tyler Thornburg and T.J. McFarland would be guys I’d go after. Chris Devenski has had a couple down years, but looks to rebound. Wouldn’t be surprised if Brad Boxberger was brought back into the mix (signed to minor league contract midseason of 2019 by the Nationals).
Who is an additional piece to the puzzle, acquired via free agency or trade?
James Simmons:
The Nationals are in the market for a catcher and there are not many good catchers on the market. I do not feel J.T. Realmuto will get the money he wants, and for value reasons I do not think the Nationals should even chase him. The next best catcher on the market appears to be James McCann. After a handful of subpar years with the Detroit Tigers, McCann spent the last two seasons boosting his batting average and hitting home runs on the south side of Chicago.
Then there is a huge drop-off with the remaining free agents. If the Nationals are going to upgrade in the catching department they will need to do it via the trade. The New York Yankees are impatient with Gary Sanchez and currently listening to offers.
Sanchez sometimes goes through stretches at the plate where he looks pitiful. He has tremendous power though. Sanchez is a two-time All-Star who has hit over thirty home runs twice in his career. He made $5M last year and has multiple years of team control left.
The Nationals would have to get creative, as they do not have much in the system to trade. The Yankees may just be frustrated enough with Sanchez they are willing to part with him for less than the best prospects the Nats have to offer.
Max Rayman:
Josh Bell. The 28-year-old first baseman has two years left on his contract and is coming off of a disappointing 2020 campaign. The Pittsburgh Pirates have entered a full rebuild and their timetable doesn’t match up with Bell’s prime.
In 2019, Bell’s stock was at an all-time high. He hit .277, with 37 homers, 116 RBIs, and an OPS of .936. Then 2020 happened. Bell fell crashing back to earth, hitting .226, with eight homers, 22 RBIs, and an OPS of .669.
With his trade stock taking a major hit, the Pirates might be inclined to hold onto him. After all, there is no point in trading a player if you aren’t getting ample talent in return. But from Washington’s perspective, now is a perfect time to gauge the Pirates on their asking price.
A change of scenery could lead Bell to having a solid bounce back year. He would be following the recent trend of Pirates players who were traded and have excelled since. Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, and Auston Meadows come to mind. Bell would offer the protection needed for Juan Soto and has shown in the past that he can slug with the best of them. While 2019 was his ceiling, Bell has shown he has more in the tank.
Next. Jordan Zimmermann reunion may be in the works. dark
Bell is a liabilty defensively and as I stated earlier, the Pirates could hang onto him for another season. If that’s the case, Mitch Moreland is the answer. He is a lefty power bat who is a Gold Glover. While he is no longer the defender he once was, he posted positive defensive metrics in 2020 (1 DRS and a .1 UZR). Morland could platoon with Ryan Zimmerman (if he comes back) and can even DH if the NL decides to keep that rule intact. Last year with the Red Sox and Padres, Moreland hit .265, with 10 homers, 29 RBIs, an OPS of .894, and a wRC+ of 135. While he is the cheaper option, he is 35 and father time runs supreme.