Washington Nationals: Why The Team Should Rebuild

From 2012 to 2019, the Washington Nationals have been one of the best teams in the league. However, entering 2021, the team is sitting at a crossroads. Is now the time to rebuild?

The Washington Nationals should enter a rebuild? The blasphemy. Now, I understand the hesitation. Washington still has Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto all on the roster. That is a strong core that has already brought one World Series title to D.C. However, 2020 showed that the team has plenty of holes to fill before they can go back to being a contender. With plenty of options in free agency and on the trade market, Washington could bolster the roster and be back in business come next season.

Instead, I am going to play devil’s advocate and explain why the team should enter a rebuild. The offense is a shell of its former self, the starting rotation has shown signs of regression and the farm system is empty. Washington’s farm system has become barren over the years with zero prospects in MLB Pipelines’ top 100. The team’s top prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli both have front of the rotation upside but are a few years away from being MLB ready. Behind them is uncertainty which is a problem. Washington will continually have to rely on free agency and trades to better their team for the foreseeable future, which could cost the team in the long run.

Before I begin, Mike Rizzo and the Lerner family have made it clear that they plan on continuing to contend and understandably so. Expect the team to go for it this off-season. Rizzo has avoided rebuilding the past few years, with 2019 being a prime example. While the team is cash strapped, he will find a way to keep the boat afloat while looking forward to a loaded 2021 free agency class. But if the Nationals have another losing season, a rebuild could still be on the horizon.

From 2012-2019, Washington had one of the best offenses in the league. Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Michael Morse, Jayson Werth, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Ian Desmond just to name a few, have all made their presence felt in the nation’s capital. However, outside of Soto, and Turner the rest have either been traded away, retired, or left in free agency. Zimmerman is still a free agent and has yet to decide if he is returning for another year. The lineup has slowly thinned out, with only Trea Turner and Juan Soto left to lead the way. Those two alone cannot carry the current offense and this was on full display in 2020.

Below are the offenses stats in 2019 and 2020. See the difference?

                      BA            OBP         SLG             OPS        wRC+               

2019:           .265        .342         .454          .796           103

2020:           .264        .336         .433          .769           103

While it wasn’t drastic drop-offs, the Nationals offense clearly wasn’t as potent in 2020. Unfortunately, unless they put all of their eggs into the free agency basket, help isn’t coming. Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia were the team’s two top prospects, with both being position players. Sadly, neither took 2020 by storm. Garcia hit a modest .276, but lacked power and was a liability in the field, whereas Kieboom was lost at the plate, but was a bright spot defensively. In win-now mode, Washington doesn’t have the patience to wait for Kieboom and Garcia to develop into reliable pieces. Garcia can benefit from another year in the minors, however, Kieboom has already proven himself at Triple A. What he needs is more plate appearances, which the team cannot currently afford.

The backbone of the team, the starting rotation looked like a shell of its former self in 2020. Entering 2021, Washington has almost $94 million tied up between Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin. That is a major red flag. Here is how the rotation faired in 2020. For the second straight year, Scherzer battled an injury. He never looked at full strength and went 5-4, with a 3.74 ERA, 92 strikeouts, and a 3.46 FIP. While these are decent numbers, Scherzer is held to a much higher standard. Strasburg only made two starts and underwent season-ending surgery for carpal tunnel. Over the two starts, he only lasted 5.1 innings and allowed six runs over that time. Corbin finished 2-7, with a 4.66 ERA, 60 strikeouts, and a 4.17 FIP.

Anibal Sanchez once again hit a wall. He went 4-5, with a 6.62 ERA, 43 strikeouts, and a 5.46 FIP. The team declined his option and is looking for a new fourth starter. Joe Ross opted out of the season, leading to Austin Voth taking his spot. After showing promise in 2019, Voth was a liability once he became a full-time member of the rotation. In 11 starts, he went 2-5, with a 6.34 ERA, 44 strikeouts, and a 6.41 FIP. Voth may be better suited for a role in the bullpen. Erick Fedde replaced Strasburg in the rotation and finished the year 2-4, with a 4.29 ERA, 28 strikeouts, and a 6.15 FIP. Similar to Voth, Fedde may be better suited as a long reliever.

In years past, the rotation has held opponents at bay, allowing for the offense to grind out wins. Now with the Big Three taking a step back and the back end of the rotation full of uncertainty, Washington’s greatest strength has become a question mark. If Washington cannot rely on its rotation, then it might be time to move on. Especially if the offense continues to decline.

Washington will want to avoid the fate of the San Fransisco Giants. From 2010-2014, the Giants won three World Series titles but haven’t made the playoffs since 2016. The Giants core started to age and regress, but instead of rebuilding, San Fransisco continued to go all-in until it was too late. The front office signed Johnny Cueto and Mark Melancon to large contracts which mostly backfired and ruined the team’s cap. Now the Giants have officially reached the end of their core. Many of their key pieces have either left in free agency/trades, retired, or were cut. The Giants have officially started to rebuild, but it will be a while before they return to contention. The Nationals have the opportunity to sell off before it’s too late.

Mike Rizzo should take a page out of the Chicago White Sox’s book. Back in December of 2016, they started their full-on fire sale which saw them ship out Adam Eaton and ace Chris Sale. In return, they received at the time, four top 100 prospects (Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, and Reynaldo López) who have turned out to be crucial to their current core. Washington also included Dane Dunning who has started to emerge as another valuable starter. Chicago followed this up by sending Jose Quintana to the Chicago Cubs and received two additional top 100 prospects (Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez). 2020 saw the White Sox finally emerge and they reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The White Sox were in a slightly different situation than Washington. They had talented pieces but were unable to put it all together so they wisely started over. After years of being a top team, Washington is nearing the end of their road and should think about tearing it down. Washington has the star names to acquire a massive haul.

Rebuilding would allow for Washington to restock the farm while clearing their books from big-money contracts. If done correctly, Washington could revamp the farm system by having a firesale and shipping everyone out not named Juan Soto. Put aside feelings and think about it from an unbiased perspective. Max Scherzer has one year left on his contract and over the past season and a half, injuries have started to negatively affect him. Strasburg only made two starts in 2020, and placing the future of the rotation into the hands of an injury-prone 32-year-old is a risky decision. Patrick Corbin was brought in to add a third ace. The veteran was unable to carry the rotation in Strasburg’s absence and suffered from control issues. His strikeout totals were down while he was allowing more hits.

All three can fetch favorable returns on the trade market which will go a long way to restock the farm system. The 2019 Zack Greinke trade showed that an aging ace on a large contract can still garner a favorable return. Strasburg will be back to full health for 2021 and can be the missing piece for a contender. After all, teams can never have too much pitching help. Washington could always agree to eat some of their salaries in order to receive even more in return. This could entice teams to hand over some big-name prospects in return.

Even though he had a down year, Scherzer still posted a K/9 of 12.0+ for the fourth straight year. An extended off-season (he missed the playoffs) and a full Spring Training will benefit the ace. Scherzer is a creature of habit and he was never able to get into a rhythm. That will change come 2021. One year left on his contract won’t stop teams from trading a top prospect for the ace.

Corbin has one of the best sliders in the game which opposing batters cannot lay off of. He just needs to work on his consistency with his other pitches. While it doesn’t make sense for the Nationals to push the current core any farther due to injuries and a deteriorating offense, all three will benefit any rotation in baseball.

While those three would fetch a fair return, trading Trea Turner would really push the rebuild over the top. Turner just posted a career year and is only 27, with two years left on his contract. His stock will never be higher. He finished the year hitting .335, with 12 homers, 41 RBIs, an OPS of .982, and a 157 wRC+. Trading Trea Turner after his monster season is almost underheard of. He led all shortstops in batting average, wRC+, fWAR, OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, and OPS. One of the fastest players in the league, Turner is a reliable leadoff hitter, but he also has the pop to hit in the middle of the lineup.

In reality, if a rebuild comes to fruition, Trea Turner will stay put as a key piece. He is young enough to still be in his prime when the rebuild ends. However, as I stated earlier, trading him now would guarantee Washington has the basis to properly restock the farm system.