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Nationals: The Perfect 2021 Lineup

By Max Rayman |
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 30: The Washington Nationals celebrate after defeating the Houston Astros in Game Seven to win the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 30, 2019 in Houston, Texas. The Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros with a score of 6 to 2. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 30: The Washington Nationals celebrate after defeating the Houston Astros in Game Seven to win the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 30, 2019 in Houston, Texas. The Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros with a score of 6 to 2. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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Mike Rizzo has plenty of work to do, but a few moves would be able to vastly improve Washington’s lineup.

26-34. After winning the World Series in 2019, no one expected Washington to follow it up by posting their first losing record since 2011, but here we are. Juan Soto and Trea Turner were two of the best hitters in baseball during the 2020 season, but they had almost zero help behind them. In a competitive NL East and plenty of long term contracts still on the books, Washington has almost no choice but to keep moving forward. To do so, they will need to bolster their offense and fast. So far, Washington has yet to make a major move and is currently stuck at a crossroads. 

Earlier in the season, I detailed my perfect off-season plan, but since then a few players I had highlighted as must adds have signed with new teams since. No worries. There are still plenty of intriguing options left in free agency that would get this lineup back into contention. But what would the perfect Nationals lineup look like for 2021? For this exercise, I decided to keep the Nat’s under the luxury tax and to make it easier, went under the assumption the NL will keep the DH rule intact.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 24: Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals celebrates after hitting a double in the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Nationals Park on September 24, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 24: Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals celebrates after hitting a double in the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Nationals Park on September 24, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

Leading Off: CF, Victor Robles

Now is the time for Victor Robles to take the leadoff reigns from Turner. After an impressive rookie season where he hit .255, with 17 homers, 65 RBIs, and an OPS of .745, Robles took a major step back in 2020. He could never get going and was trying too hard at the plate to crush everything. He finished the season hitting .220, with three homers, 15 RBIs, and a .608 OPS. He needs to settle down and take the Juan Soto approach. Instead of always aiming for the fence, just put the ball in play.

It wasn’t just at the plate where Robles took a step back. After emerging as one of the best defensive centerfielders in 2019, Robles stumbled in 2020. During his rookie season, he had 12 outfield assists and 25 DRS, but this dropped to 1 outfield assist and -4 DRS in 2020.

Recently, he has been playing in the Dominican Winter League, leading off for Águilas Cibaeñas. If Robles can consistently put it together, he will become the leadoff hitter Washington needs and in turn, will allow for Turner to move down in the lineup to provide more power. Robles has the speed to lead off but will need to be more consistent at the plate.

Batting Second: SS, Trea Turner

Last season, Trea Turner finally came into his own, hitting .335, with 12 homers, 41 RBIs, and an OPS of .982.  He has always been a speed threat, but thanks to injuries, has been inconsistent at the plate. Finally putting it all together, Turner went on to lead all shortstops in BA, SB, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and wRC+. Impressive stuff. The 27-year-old has primarily hit leadoff for Washington, but moving him down a spot in front of Soto adds extra pressure on opposing pitchers early.

After battling injuries in 2017 and 2019, Turner was finally able to stay healthy and finally lived up to his hype. He took a step back in the stolen base department, but expect him to be back to his aggressive self moving forward. After all, from 2016-2019, he posted 30+ steals, peaking with 46 in only 98 games during the 2017 season.

Turner has two years left on his contract and is only 27. Expect the speedster to build upon his breakout year, especially after he was snubbed from the All MLB Team.

Batting Third: RF, Juan Soto

After making his presence felt on the biggest stage, Soto continued to exceed expectations. In 2020, Juan Soto emerged as a threat to Mike Trout for the best hitter in baseball. The 22-year-old only appeared in 47 games due to a positive COVID test that made him miss the beginning of the season. Despite that, he still won the NL batting title, hitting .351, with 13 homers, 37 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.185. He was ineligible to qualify for NL MVP but was named to the All MLB first team for outfield. Soto is the heart and soul of the lineup and will carry the Nationals as far as he can.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 17: Marcell Ozuna #20 of the Atlanta Braves reacts against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning in Game Six of the National League Championship Series at Globe Life Field on October 17, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 17: Marcell Ozuna #20 of the Atlanta Braves reacts against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning in Game Six of the National League Championship Series at Globe Life Field on October 17, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Batting Fourth: DH, Marcell Ozuna

Washington needs to add protection for Soto. Everyone knows this. Cash strapped, this issue has become hard to handle. However, after the Josh Bell trade, Washington has some room to splurge on another bat. Marcell Ozuna. The 30-year-old just posted a career year with the Atlanta Braves, hitting .338, with an NL high 18 homers, 56 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.067.

In Atlanta, Ozuna added protection for Freddie Freeman, and that’s what he would do in D.C. for Juan Soto. As I stated earlier, one of Washington’s biggest issue in 2020 was production in the lineup after Turner and Soto came up.

Ozuna gets the nod over J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, George Springer, and Michael Brantley due to his age, production, and projected contract. A defensive liability, Ozuna would become the Nationals primary DH, a role that suits him perfectly.

Batting Fifth: 1B, Josh Bell

At first, this spot was going to include a platoon of Adam Duvall and Mitch Moreland, which would have provided a mix of offense and defense. But then Mike Rizzo made a splash by trading for the Pittsburgh Pirates star, Josh Bell. Bell had a down year in 2020 which saw him hit .226, with eight homers, 22 RBIs, and an OPS of .669. However, in 2019 he named to his first All-Star team and finished the season hitting .277, with 37 homers, 116 RBIs, and an OPS of .936.

Bell is not known for his defense, seen by his career -32 DRS and -19.9 UZR at first. Except, Washington didn’t acquire him for his defense. They are hoping he can bounce back and provide the power bat Washington has been missing.

Batting Sixth: LF, Eddie Rosario

Washington will have a new face in the outfield for 2021 after Adam Eaton left in free agency. Eaton was with the team since 2017, but the team declined his option. At the end of the 2020 season, Soto was shifted from left to right where he will play from here on. With a hole to fill in left, Washington should sign Eddie Rosario.

Rosario broke out with the Twins in 2017, hitting .290, with 27 homers, 78 RBIs, and an OPS of .836. He peaked with 32 homers in 2019 and was a vital part of the Twins offense. This off-season, he was somewhat of a surprise non-tender, making him a free agent for the first time in his career. Part of the reason he was non-tendered was due to the origination’s He hit .257, with 13 homers, 42 RBIs, and an OPS of .792. The slugger will add some missing production to the middle of the lineup and will be able to compliment Ozuna.

Defensively, Rosario is inconsistent, which tends to be a problem. Through his six years in the majors, Rosario has 53 outfield assists, four DRS, and a UZR of 8.1, Rosario can play all three outfield positions, but has spent most of his career in left. In left field, Rosario has 42 outfield assists, nine DRS, and an 11.8 UZR.

Starlin Castro #14 of the Washington Nationals looks on against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 11, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images)
Starlin Castro #14 of the Washington Nationals looks on against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 11, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images) /

Batting Seventh: 2B, Starlin Castro

Before he broke his wrist and missed the rest of the season, Starlin Castro was one of the most productive bats on the team. He was hitting .267, with an OBP of .302, and a .752 OPS. Due to a lack of options, Castro was hitting third which was not his cup of tea. Castro lacks production but excels at getting on base. Moving him down in the lineup adds a sparkplug that can jumpstart the offense.

In 2020, Washington’s offense outside of Turner and Soto struggled to consistently get on base. Castro will help stabilize that issue. Luis Garcia needs another year in the minors, allowing Castro to take over at second for the time being. No longer in the three-hole, Castro can help hurt opposing pitchers from the bottom of the order.

Batting Eighth, C, Yan Gomes

Unless the Nationals go out and sign J.T. Realmuto, Yan Gomes is the projected starting catcher. After two years of primarily only starting when Patrick Corbin is on the mound or when Kurt Suzuki needed a day off, Gomes is the man in D.C. Acquired in a trade from Cleveland, Gomes has been with the team since 2019. After the team won the World Series in 2019, Gomes has his 2020 option declined, but he was brought back on a new two-year deal.

Never known for his bat, Gomes was a pleasant surprise in 2020. In 30 games he hit .284, with four homers, 13 RBIs, and an OPS of .787. A career .246 hitter, Washington’s offense would benefit greatly if Gomes can build upon his 2020 success moving forward.

Defensively, Gomes has slowly started to fall off. In his career, he has 36 DRS and a Frame Rate (FRM) of 18.3. But in his two years with Washington, he only has two DRS and a -1.8 FRM. His framing skills especially took a hit in 2020, seen by his -1.5 FRM. Despite his degrading defense, Gomes provides veteran leadership and has been a great clubhouse fit.

Batting Ninth: 3B, Carter Kieboom

The team’s former top prospect, this is the year Carter Kieboom finally gets a full opportunity to win the starting job at third. After showing he has nothing left to prove in the minors, Washington promoted the youngster, but he wasn’t given a fair chance in 2020. He only received 99 at-bats and went on to hit .202, with nine RBIs, and an OPS of .556.

Giving up on Kieboom now would be a mistake, especially after the performance he put on at Triple-A. Defensively, Kieboom was a pleasant surprise, posting positive defensive metrics. Be it a small sample size (30 games), Kieboom posted five DRS and a .8 UZR. A natural shortstop, Kieboom was forced to learn third base on the fly and it is very promising to see him shine on defense.

Fans have been asking for an upgrade at third, but Kieboom deserves a full opportunity to prove himself. Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Stephen Strasburg were able to take the league by storm, spoiling the Washington fanbase. Instead, patience is needed for Kieboom who has a huge upside but has yet to put it together.

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