Washington Nationals: Three bold predictions for 2021
Three bold predictions for the 2021 Washington Nationals team, who are coming off a miserable, injury plagued, 2020 season.
Aside from a few minor league contracts being signed and the Josh Bell Christmas Eve trade, the offseason has been relatively quiet for the Washington Nationals. We are just days away from turning the calendar to 2021, closing the book on a brutal 2020 year (in baseball and in general).
There is still a lot to do in free agency (and possibly on the trade front) as the Nationals sit with 34 players on the 40-man roster. As we wait around for the final pieces of the puzzle to be put in place, we turn our attention to 2021 and what we do know.
We know the Nationals will need their veteran pitching staff to pitch better. Staying healthy will go a long ways with this.
We know the Nationals will have to play better defense and take advantage of scoring opportunities when they arise. Adding Josh Bell’s bat to the lineup is a great start, though there are still moves to be made.
We know Max Scherzer comes off the books after the season while Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin will have another year’s worth of innings on their arms by the end of said season.
All that to say, let’s make a few bold predictions for the 2021 season.
Multiple Nationals pitchers will earn Cy Young votes
Prior to last season this may not have been a bold prediction. For nine straight years there was a Nationals pitcher who garnered Cy Young votes, with four years multiple pitchers getting the honor.
In 2020, no one made the cut.
What makes me think 2021 will be different?
Two words. Max Scherzer. Prior to being left off the ballot last season, Scherzer had a personal seven year run with Top 5 finishes, including winning the award three times. 2020 was an anomaly for Scherzer and he is bound to have a comeback season. In three of the past five seasons Scherzer has led the league in strikeouts and in five of the past six seasons he’s had an ERA south of 3.00. He has the pedigree and even at 36 years of age he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’ll rebound.
After successfully having carpal tunnel surgery, Stephen Strasburg will be ready for the 2021 season. With a big contract to live up to, and an extended period of rest on his shoulder, Stras is due for a bounce back year as well.
While Strasburg’s highest finish is third in the voting, his stuff is good enough to get him on the list. His biggest enemy will be the injury bug. If he can avoid that, his thirty plus starts will do the rest.
For Patrick Corbin to make the list he just needs to pitch more like his 2019 self and less like his 2020 self. Easier said than done. My money is on the first two though, with Corbin being the fallback plan.
Juan Soto and Josh Bell each hit 35 home runs.
Josh Bell has done this before in his career, Juan Soto has not. Bell is coming off a season where he struggled to hit the ball at all (.226 average) and Soto may not get enough pitches to hit (led league in hitting (.351) and intentional walks (12)), as he could be pitched around more than challenged.
This may not seem like a bold prediction. Soto is trending towards 35 home runs, and hit a career high 34 in 2019. If the Nationals get out of the gate slow and no one reaches base, or hits well behind him, Soto may not see good pitches to hit. With an on base percentage of .490 last year, Soto will find a way on base, just might not be in making his way around the bases in one swing.
Bell had his power surge in 2019 as well. In just 143 games he hit 37 long balls. The year prior he hit just 12 in 148 games. His power comes and goes, so will it come or go in 2021?
My money is it’ll be there when the season starts. With a change of scenery, a winning environment, and paired in the lineup with Juan Soto, he’s going to get his groove back.
Two players have never hit over 35 home runs in the same season in Nationals history. Anthony Rendon and Soto each hit 34 in 2019, Adam Dunn hit 38 and Ryan Zimmerman 33 in 2009, they were the closest.
Until 2021.
Victor Robles will lead the team in stolen bases.
Trea Turner has led the team in stolen bases the past five seasons. This past season Turner had the highest on-base percentage of his career, yet attempted stolen bases at the lowest rate of his career (save his 27 game audition in 2015).
Turner led the majors in hits this past season and also boasted a career high .588 slugging percentage. Aside from Juan Soto, Turner was the most reliable batter in the lineup in terms of getting on base. His .335 average worked well as a leadoff hitter, though not for a team which struggled to bring him around to score.
As Turner falls into a more run producing role for the Nationals, Victor Robles takes over as more of the base stealing threat. Robles reached base at the lowest clip of his career a year ago, leading him to only have four swipes on the season. In 2019 he stole 28 bases, second on the team to Turner.
Yes, Turner missed a lot of time with a broken finger, so the gap between them could have been more than the seven it was. Robles didn’t move into the leadoff spot while Turner was out, and stole most of his bases batting in the bottom half of the order.
I’m not saying Robles will be the table setter this year, just that he’ll swipe more bases than Trea Turner.