Ranking All 30 Starting Rotations
30) Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Anderson
2020 Stats: W/L 10-25, 4.74 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 1.2 fWAR
Are the Pittsburgh Pirates even trying? Trying for the first pick in the draft next year, maybe. Gone are Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, and Derek Holland, and the replacements are a bunch of guys with limited experience, with Tyler Anderson tossed in for good measure.
Mitch Keller and his 16 career starts will get thrown to the wolves as the perceived “ace” of this staff. His numbers in limited time have not been great, 5.81 ERA (4.30 FIP). JT Brubaker has less experience than Keller, and Steven Brault has spent his career going back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation. Chad Kuhl was 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA last year and is coming off Tommy John surgery.
The 2020 Pirates walked an MLB-high 4.23 batters per nine innings. A younger, less experienced tandem doesn’t have high expectations this year.
29) Texas Rangers
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Kyle Gibson, Dane Dunning, Jordan Lyles, Kohei Arihara, Mike Foltynewicz
2020 Stats: W/L 10-28, 5.32 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.9 fWAR
There will be a lot of question marks revolving around the Rangers starting rotation this year. Can Kohei Arihara transition from the Japan Pacific League to the Major Leagues smoothly? Is Dane Dunning ready for the ball every fifth day? Does Mike Foltynewicz have anything left in the tank?
Kyle Gibson had a horrendous start to his Rangers career, after signing a 3 YR/ $28M deal the year prior. He’ll need to rebound for the Rangers to have any hope of competing in a difficult American League West Division. Gibson walked a career-high four hitters per nine innings last year and puts too many runners on base in general. Dunning was a great addition, acquired in the Lance Lynn trade from the Chicago White Sox, though has only made seven big league appearances. He may be another year away from really contributing.
This might be Jordan Lykes and Foltynewicz’s last shot at proving they can still perform at the highest level.
28) Baltimore Orioles
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: John Means, Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Jorge Lopez, Bruce Zimmermann
2020 Stats: W/L 12-22, 5.09 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 3.0 fWAR
John Means was an All-Star in 2019 as well as a 12 game-winner. Sadly, his 2020 didn’t go well. If he can keep the ball in the park he has the potential to turn a few heads in the American League East.
The Orioles expect big things out of Keegan Akin in his second year. The former second-round draft pick had a 12.3 K/9 rate a year ago in limited time. Dean Kremer posted a FIP of 2.76 a year ago in limited action and looks to build on a strong performance in his four starts.
Jorge Lopez is a veteran vagabond and Bruce Zimmermann who is looking to crack the rotation, though may find himself in the minors another year. The Orioles have a youthful rotation who may be a few years away from doing serious damage. There will be growing pains at Camden Yards this year, but watching the future will be exciting.
27) Colorado Rockies
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Jon Gray, Austin Gomber
2020 Stats: W/L 14-23, 4.83 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 4.1 fWAR
If you want an analysis on the Rockies, see the first line for the Pirates. Colorado hasn’t signed a major league free agent in years and just sold off Nolan Arenado. They are playing for the future, the distant future. There is a possibility the starting rotation ends up being a strength for this team. On paper, they have shown flashes in the past.
German Marquez and Kyle Freeland have put up stellar numbers before, but have been plagued by inconsistencies. Freeland won 17 games with a 2.85 ERA in 2018, and Marquez led the league in games started and innings pitched a year ago. Unfortunately, the Rockies never know what version of them will show up on game day. Jon Gray hasn’t lived up to the high expectations he carries, being a former first-round pick.
After two straight disastrous seasons from the Rockies’ rotation, their starters will be on a short leash and will be facing the possibility of being released.
26) Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Zac Gallen, Caleb Smith, Madison Bumgarner, Luke Weaver, Alex Young
2020 Stats: W/L 10-25, 5.04 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 1.9 fWAR
After an atrocious performance from the Diamondbacks starting rotation a year ago, there is nowhere to go but up for this pitching staff. Gone is Robbie Ray and the rotation will feature no new faces. Their productivity will hinge on the health of Madison Bumgarner and whether prospect Zac Gallen can continue his strong efforts (2.78 ERA over 27 career starts).
Luke Weaver lost more games than any other pitcher in the league a year ago, and his 6.58 ERA was unsightly. He is a former first-round pick who has shown he can get hitters out on a regular basis. Alex Young may lose his starting job to Merrill Kelly, who pitched well in five starts a year ago.
One fact about the matter, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres bulking up this offseason, this year may be a long one for Diamondbacks pitching coach Matt Herges.
25) San Francisco Giants
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Anthony DeScalafani, Aaron Sanchez, Alex Wood
2020 Stats: W/L 11-17, 4.99 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.3 fWAR
While the National League West is top-heavy with the other California teams, the Giants have quietly put a few pieces together to challenge. The pitching staff is veteran heavy, led by Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto. Both are in walk years and could be moved at the trading deadline to help the Giants with their rebuild. Players have a tendency to pitch better when free agency is nearing.
Aaron Sanchez and Alex Wood are both reclamation projects looking to rebound after disappointing seasons. Sanchez was injured and sat out all of 2020, while Wood was moved out of the rotation and spent time in the bullpen for the Dodgers. If he can come anywhere near his All-Star self of 2017, the Giants will have another trade chip come July.
24)Chicago Cubs
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies, Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay
2020 Stats: W/L 25-20, 3.77 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 5.8 fWAR
We are going to call this subtraction through subtraction. Jettisoned are the likes of Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood. The Cubs decided to cut salaries at all costs and succeeded at that, but was it worth it? We had the Cubs as the 13th best rotation a year ago, and they have dropped a few rungs with the new faces in town.
While Kyle Hendricks has been rumored to be on the move, he is tabbed to be the Opening Day starter in the Friendly Confines. Hendricks pitched well a year ago, finishing with a 2.88 ERA and league-best 0.9 walks per nine innings. Old friend Jake Arrieta is back after a three-year hiatus in Philadelphia. He is no longer the pitcher he was when he won the Cy Young in 2015 for the Cubs, though he can still provide quality innings.
Zach Davies was the lone major leaguer acquired from the San Diego Padres in the Darvish trade and will look to build on his 7-4, 2.73 ERA, season that he had a year ago. Alzolay struck out 29 in 21 innings in 2020 and is a power arm who may be better suited for the bullpen.
23)Kansas City Royals
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Brad Keller, Brady Singer, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, Kris Bubic
2020 Stats: W/L 14-26, 4.70 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 2.3 fWAR
The Royals ranked 13th in the American League in runs scored a year ago and sixth in earned run average. The pitching is there is on the rise and they brought in bounce-back candidate Mike Minor. Kansas City is banking on another former first-round pick for quality production, investing $18M over two years on Minor. An All-Star in 2019, Minor spent time with two organizations a year ago. After being acquired by the A’s he had a WHIP of 1.03 and a career-best 11.4 K/9. The potential is still there.
Brad Keller had a stellar season in 2020, with an ERA of 2.47. He doesn’t miss many bats (6.3 K/9 for his career), though he keeps the ball in the ballpark (2 HR allowed in 54.2 innings in 2020). Former first-round pick, Brady Singer, got a taste of the majors a year ago and held his own (4.06 ERA/1.17 WHIP). He doesn’t have much time at the game’s highest level, yet will get the on-the-job training this year.
22)Seattle Mariners
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Marco Gonzales, James Paxton, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, Chris Flexen
2020 Stats: W/L 21-20, 4.41 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 5.1 fWAR
He may be boring to watch, though if he continues to put up the numbers, American League hitters will be wary to face him. Why a member of his own organization would say this about Marco Gonzales we are unsure? What we do know is Gonzales doesn’t put people on base and has staff ace stuff. The Mariners would be higher on this list if he had a little more help.
Old friend James Paxton is coming off an injury-plagued season with the New York Yankees which saw his velocity drop and his ERA rise. He’s a bit of a gamble, but the hopes are returning to his old stomping ground will allow him to garner better results. The jury is still out on Yusei Kikuchi as well as Justus Sheffield, while showing glimpses of expertise, the latter walks too many hitters. Four per nine innings for his career.
Chris Flexen carries an ERA over eight in 27 career games with the New York Mets. He may win the fifth starter job in camp, more than likely he’s a fit for the bullpen.
21)Detroit Tigers
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Spencer Turnbull, Matthew Boyd, Casey Mize, Jose Urena, Tarik Skubal
2020 Stats: W/L 9-22, 6.37 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 0.9 fWAR
Spencer Turnbull lost a major league-leading 17 games in 2019. Though he wasn’t that bad, the Tigers were. His FIP was 3.99. Yes, Turnbull does walk too many, and hit too many (league-high 16 HPB in ’19 as well), though he has decent stuff and is ready to take charge of this pitching staff.
The home run ball has hurt Matthew Boyd the past two years. Both seasons he has surrendered the most in the league. In 2019 Boyd struck out a career-best 11.6 per nine innings, then followed that up by producing his worst FIP in five years. His inconsistency is alarming.
Casey Mize made his much anticipated big league debut a year ago and while his stats don’t reflect the pitcher he’ll be, he earned valuable experience which will help this season. The number one overall pick in the 2018 draft has a lot of upside.
Jose Urena fractured his right forearm when he was hit by a comebacker the last game of the regular season a year ago. To that point, he had had an uninspiring season where he walked nearly as many as he struck out. While he has seen better years, if he can regain his 2017 form he’ll be a steal for the Tigers.
20) Los Angeles Angels
Projected 2021 Rotation: Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, Griffin Canning, Shohei Ohtani
2020 Stats: W/L 13-22, 5.52 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 3.1 fWAR
The Angels did a pretty solid job this offseason and they can very well perform better than the 20th best rotation in the sports. Dylan Bundy, who was heralded as one of the better pitching prospects in all of baseball throughout his time with the Orioles, finally broke out last year. There isn’t a clear-cut ace in the staff, but the sum of all parts is better than what one would think. Alex Cobb and Jose Quintana are battle-tested having pitched for organizations who were in postseason contention and should strengthen the middle of the rotation.
If the Angels are in contention at the deadline, adding a high-echelon arm to this group would help tremendously. With Ohtani’s future on the mound in question, there shouldn’t be too much worrying on LA’s behalf compared to previous seasons. They have plenty of options and more depth that can withstand injury, but it remains to be seen how they will perform in a 162-game season. If the rotation is firing on all cylinders, the Angels could very well find themselves at the top of the AL West. Don’t sleep on the Angels.
19) Boston Red Sox
Projected 2021 Rotation: Chris Sale* Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez, Nick Pivetta
2020 Stats: W/L13-22, 5.34 ERA, 5.50 FIP, .5 fWAR
Boston’s rotation might be the most fragile in all of baseball. Chris Sale is sidelined at least through June as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and Eduardo Rodriguez is returning after missing the 2020 season with COVID-complications. There are still some question marks coming out of Fort Myers.
The additions Chaim Bloom made were at best underwhelming to much of Sox Nation. Garrett Richards, now two years removed from Tommy John, should be stronger, but he even struggled in 2020 and is far from a sure thing.
Nathan Eovaldi also returns to the rotation this year. He’s had difficulty staying on the field but still possesses an electric arm. I’ve been curious about his potential coming out of the bullpen, but with his hefty contract now starting to wind down, I wonder if Boston would make Eovaldi a reliever if he struggles in the rotation. Martin Perez, who became a fan favorite in Boston last year, also returns and will provide quality innings.
18) Tampa Bay Rays
Projected 2021 Rotation: Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough, Chris Archer, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Luis Patinó
2020 Stats: 15-9, 3.77 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 3.7 fWAR
There is definitely going to be a drop-off when a team loses their top two pitchers, but Tampa did a decent job of bringing in a plethora of veteran arms who are still more than capable of filling in to eat innings. Glasnow will be expected to shoulder much of the load at the top, but with veterans in Chris Archer and Rich Hill, the rotation has no shortage of options. Luis Patino, acquired in the Blake Snell trade is one of the best prospects in baseball. He should be called up at some point this season and deservingly so. After all, his live arm and repertoire are advanced for his age.
Michael Wacha is a veteran who struggled with the Mets last year, but should rebound with help of the Rays game planning and analytical staff. The stuff is still there, but he’s been all over the place and was hit hard. While the Rays were the first in trying the opener, their rotation going into this season features a lot of traditional starters, so you likely won’t see much of that strategy in 2021.
17) Houston Astros
Projected 2021 Rotation: Zack Greinke, Jake Odorizzi, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy
2020 Stats: W/L 19-15, 4.26 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.9 fWAR
The loss of Justin Verlander to Tommy John still hurts, but as they have shown last summer, they have enough quality arms to make a run not only in their division, but for the pennant. Framber Valdez’s injury also wasn’t the way Houston hoped spring training would start, but bringing in Jake Odorizzi to fill the void is an excellent move. Odorizzi is a proven veteran who is battle-tested from his days with Tampa and Minnesota and should be a welcome sight to Astros fans.
With Zack Greinke leading the way, though another year older, the Astros rotation is potent. A healthy Lance McCullers Jr is another positive for the club whose minor league pitching depth is fleeting. The injury to top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley stings, and Houston hopes they can stray from injury as they don’t have many options to turn to in the minor leagues.
16) Philadelphia Phillies
Projected 2021 Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, Spencer Howard
2020 Stats: W/L 19-18, 4.08 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 7.0 fWAR
The Phillies rotation going into 2021 is an upgrade from 2020, but there remain question marks outside of the top 3. Aaron Nola returns as the ace of the staff and he hopes to put together another solid campaign. Zack Wheeler did well in his first season in Philly and along with Zach Eflin and the improvements he has made, the Phillies feel confident that they will be able to tame the power bats in the NL East.
With most clubs, where things can get difficult is with the last two spots in the rotation. Top prospect, Spencer Howard struggled in his first audition in the big leagues last year, but he stands to be the X-Factor in determining the fate of the Phillies season. New GM Sam Fuld brought along some depth in the form of Matt Moore and Chase Anderson, but both haven’t fared well in recent seasons.
15) Miami Marlins
Projected 2021 Rotation: Sixto Sánchez, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elesier Hernandez, Nick Neirdart
2020 Stats: W/L 15-19, 4.31 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 3.6 fWAR
While the Marlins rank at #15 in the prospective list, they could very well find themselves in the top ten a year from now. With Sixto Sánchez and Sandy Alcantara, the Fish have two of the top young arms in the game. Miami would have benefited from acquiring a veteran starter via free agency, as a way to mentor the up-and-coming youngsters. Add another veteran that could be relied on to make 30 starts and the case can be made that the Marlins would rank a lot higher.
Pablo Lopez was a nice development story last year for the Marlins and he even earned a start in the NLDS. Hernández did well in six starts as well, but it remains to be seen whether this young rotation will hold up in a 162-game season. Miami’s depth will be tested, but there are no questions about how talented this group could be. Sixto Sánchez is a special talent, and his starts are must-see TV.
14) Cincinnati Reds
Projected 2021 Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley, Jeff Hoffman, Michael Lorenzen
2020 Stats: W/L 18-22, 3.50 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 8.2 fWAR
Losing Trevor Bauer is a big blow to the rotation, but when you have two top pitchers in Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, it easier the pain. Castillo is already one of the more dominant pitchers in the National League and many are awaiting to see if he can take the next step while filling Bauer’s void. Tyler Mahle did well last season and is a solid option to slot in behind the likes of Castillo and Gray.
Outside of the Red’s top 3, there is a significant drop-off, as Wade Miley, Jeff Hoffman, Michael Lorenzen, Tejay Antone, and Jose De León battle it out for the last two spots in the rotation. Lorenzen, if unable to win a spot in the rotation, will head back to the bullpen where he has been for the last few seasons. There is a lack of depth with Cincinnati’s rotation, and it just goes on to show how much Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray mean if the club hopes to return to the postseason in 2021.
13) Oakland Athletics
Projected 2021 Rotation: Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Mike Fiers, AJ Puk
2020 Stats: W/L 22-19, 4.49 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.7 fWAR
Oakland doesn’t have much star power in the rotation, but they have more than enough quality arms to plug in. Chris Bassitt had a terrific 2020 season, and Jesus Luzardo was solid, albeit with some growing pains. If Oakland is going to make a return to the playoffs, Jesus Luzardo will have to continue to develop and show he can be counted on to start in a best-of-five series.
Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea return as well and both hope for better fortune in 2021. Mike Fiers also will take a spot in the back of the rotation, but he’s dealing with a hip injury that may very well sideline him for the start of the season. The key for the bottom half of the rotation will be for either Montas or Manaea to step up and show their best versions of themselves. Top prospect AJ Puk could also get a look, but it remains to be seen if Puk is better suited as a starter or reliever.
12) Minnesota Twins
Projected 2021 Rotation: Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker
2020 Stats: W/L 22-12, 3.54 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 6.3 fWAR
Before the start of the 2020 season, the Twins traded for Kenta Maeda which is one of the best decisions they have made in a long time. At the age of 32, Maeda posted a career year, going 6-1, with a 2.70 ERA, and 80 strikeouts. This culminated in the veteran finishing second in AL Cy Young voting. Behind Maeda, is a soon-to-be 27-year-old Jose Berrios. Berrios has been a breakout candidate for the last few seasons, but that has yet to come to fruition. In five seasons, Berrios is 48-38, with a 4.19 ERA, 653 strikeouts, and a 4.09 FIP. Rounding out the rotation are veterans Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker. All three can eat innings and are reliable options at the back end of the rotation.
11) St. Louis Cardinals
Projected 2021 Rotation: Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Kwang-Hyun Kim, Carlos Martinez, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Miles Mikolas*
2020 Stats: W/L 17-17, 3.86 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 3.1 fWAR
The Cardinals rotation took a hit with Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson going down with injuries. Hudson is out for the season, while Mikolas’s return date is unclear. In the meantime, Adam Wainwright returns for his 16th season after contemplating retirement. The long-time Cardinal was excellent in 2020, going 5-3, with a 3.15 ERA, and 54 strikeouts in 10 starts.
Jack Flaherty is the ace of the team but will need to prove his second half of 2019 wasn’t a fluke. During the 2019 season, he had a sub 1.00 ERA in the months of August and September.
10) Toronto Blue Jays
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Steven Matz, Ross Stripling
2020 Stats: W/L 10-10, 4.55 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 1.8 fWAR
Toronto’s rotation has jumped up the rankings thanks to ace Hyun-Jin Ryu. In his first season with the Blue Jays, he went 5-2, with a 2.69 ERA, and 72 strikeouts, helping lead his team to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Behind him is strikeout artist Robbie Ray, who re-signed with the Jays this past off-season. He was inconsistent in his first season with Toronto, going 1-1, with a 4.79 ERA, and 25 strikeouts in 20.2 innings. From 2016-2019, he averaged 209 strikeouts, to Toronto is hoping he can bounce back. Rounding out the rotation is workhorse Tanner Roark, and veterans Steven Matz and Ross Stripling.
9) Milwaukee Brewers
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Josh Lindblom, Brett Anderson, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser
2020 Stats: W/L 14-23, 4.18 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 6.3 fWAR
The Brewers rotation entering 2021 is very interesting with plenty of competition for the number four and five spots on the rotation. With Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes at the top, Milwaukee will count heavily upon these two right-handers if they are going to have a chance at the NL Central title. Woodruff has solidified himself as one of the best pitchers in the game after breaking onto the scene in the 2018 NLCS where he homered off of Clayton Kershaw and has since played a pivotal role for the Brew Crew.
The middle of the rotation has some names who are more than capable of stepping up. Freddy Peralta is a very interesting case and should have a chance to claim a spot in the rotation after bouncing between the bullpen and rotation over the past couple of seasons. He has a live arm and should have an inside track on winning a rotation spot. Josh Lindbloom, Adrian Houser, and Eric Lauer are among the names who will likely fill the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation and all had rather uninspiring numbers in the shortened 2020 season. Eric Lauer is a name to keep an eye on as he returns from injury and did well in San Diego in 2019 before the trade to Milwaukee.
8) Cleveland Indians
Projected 2021 Rotation: Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill
2020 Stats: W/L 23-17, 3.17 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 7.9 fWAR
Coming off another ALDS defeat to the Yankees, Cleveland’s rotation remains formidable and should help the Tribe contend in the competitive AL Central. Reigning Cy Young Winner, Shane Bieber is a top-five pitcher in the sport and should help anchor a relatively young rotation. Plesac and Civale have had their own spurts of success over the last couple of years and both look to take the next step in the careers by solidifying the middle of the rotation.
One of the more heralded prospects in their system, Triston McKenzie made his debut last summer and did well in six starts. McKenzie slots in towards the bottom of the rotation, but has the makings of a #2 starter and should continue to improve in his sophomore year. The last spot in the rotation gets a little tricky as Terry Francona has two solid options in both Logan Allen and Cal Quantrill, two former Padres farmhands. Quantrill is a former first-round draft pick and did well coming out of the bullpen for Cleveland down the stretch last year after being traded. Cleveland’s rotation, despite the subtraction of veteran Carlos Carrasco, remains strong and look for Shane Bieber to build upon his Cy Young campaign.
7) Chicago White Sox
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon/Reynaldo Lopez
2020 Stats: W/L 18-15, 3.85 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 3.6 fWAR
Chicago’s rotation has become a strength, with three aces leading the way. Lucas Giolito is the face of the rotation, with the 2015 AL Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel behind him. Most notably, over the off-season, the White Sox traded for Lance Lynn, who has been one of the most underrated starters over the last two seasons (22-14, 3.57 ERA, 335 strikeouts, 3.43 FIP).
After breaking out in 2019, Giolito built upon his success in 2020, setting career highs in FIP, WHIP, and K/9. This carried into the playoffs, with the righty throwing six shutout innings in his postseason debut.
Dylan Cease is the team’s new fourth starter after being promoted last year. Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez will be duking it out for the fifth spit, with Rodon the front runner.
6) New York Yankees
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, Domingo Germán, Luis Severino*
2020 Stats: W/L 18-17, 4.24 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 5.3 fWAR
New York’s rotation is anchored by the best pitcher in the AL. Gerrit Cole. Behind him are plenty of question marks. The Yankees acquired Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon, two high-risk, high reward pitchers who combined to throw one inning in 2020.
Of the two, Kluber, is the more high profile. The two-time AL Cy Young winner hasn’t appeared in a full season since 2018 due to injuries, throwing only 36.2 innings since. His 2019 season ended prematurely due to fracturing his forearm. In 2020, he only threw one inning before being shut down due to a torn teres major muscle. Taillon has already undergone multiple surgeries for various injuries over the years. With a checkered injury history, the former number two overall pick will need to prove he can stay on the diamond. However, throughout his career, he has a solid 3.67 ERA and a 3.55 FIP, showing glimpses of his upside.
Jordan Montgomery is the team’s fourth starter, having only thrown 150+ innings in a season once (2017). 2020 saw him post a bloated 5.11 ERA, but the hope is a full Spring Training will put him back on track. Domingo German and Devi Garcia will be battling it out for the fifth spot, with the former returning from suspension. Overall, the Yankees rotation lacks depth and may be hinging on too many bounce-back candidates.
4) Washington Nationals
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Jon Lester, Joe Ross
2020 Stats: W/L 15-27, 5.38 ERA, 5.17 FIP, 2.5 fWAR
Washington’s rotation hinges on the team’s aging big three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin to return to form. Easier said than done. After winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals rotation was a mess in 2020. Scherzer battled a hamstring injury, Corbin was inconsistent to put it nicely, and Strasburg missed the majority of the season due to Carpal Tunnel Surgery.
It helps that Joe Ross will be back after opting out of 2020 and the team also added a new fourth starter in workhorse and three-time World Series champion, Jon Lester.
All eyes should be on the Nationals ace, Max Scherzer. The future Hall of Famer had a down year in 2020, but he was still plenty effective. He went 5-4, with a 3.74 ERA, 92 strikeouts, and a 3.46 FIP. Now that his hamstring injury is behind him, expect the veteran to be back to his elite self.
Stephen Strasburg is the other ace to watch out for. After being named the 2019 World Series MVP, his injury bug flared up in a major way in 2020. Strasburg has slowly ramped up this Spring, but left his first Spring start early, with a leg injury. The rotation’s success hinges on his recovery, especially after the team signed him handed him a seven-year deal worth $245 million before the start of the 2020 season.
3) New York Mets
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Joey Lucchesi, Noah Syndergaard*
2020 Stats: W/L 13-22, 5.37 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 4.7 fWAR
While the Mets blockbuster trade that netted them Francisco Lindor highlighted their off-season, New York made a flurry of underrated moves to bolster their rotation. First Marcus Stroman accepted his qualifying offer, which keeps him in New York for another year. Then the Mets also landed Carlos Carrasco in the Lindor trade and acquired Joey Lucchesi and Taijuan Walker to give the Mets what seems like unlimited depth. Add that the rotation is led by the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom, plus Noah Syndergaard will return at some point this season from Tommy John Surgery, and the rotation is easily the best in the division.
Stroman missed the entire 2020 season due to injury and then later opting out, but the 29-year-old is one of the best number three starters in the game. In 2019 with Toronto and the Mets, he went 10-13, with a 3.22 ERA, and 159 strikeouts. The 2019 trade to the Mets paid dividends for Stroman, with his K/9 increasing from 7.1 to 9.1. After opting out, Stroman had enough time to fully recover from his injury and will be an instrumental piece in the team’s rotation moving forward.
Carrasco and Walker are both valuable pieces, with the former posting a solid 3.58 FIP and the latter finishing with a 1.37 ERA in six starts for Toronto. Something to keep an eye on is that neither are innings eaters. Walker has yet to throw 180+ innings in a season while Carrasco has only done it three times.
While the Mets have acquired a plethora of depth, the rotation will go as far as deGrom takes them. After winning back-to-back NL Cy Youngs in 2018 and 2019, the ace finished third in 2020. He still led the NL in strikeouts with 104 and posted a career-high in K/9 with 13.8. Already 32, deGrom is aging like fine wine and is still the undisputed best pitcher in baseball.
2) San Diego Padres
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet,
2020 Stats: W/L 18-15, 3.46 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 6.1 fWAR
Not to be outdone by the Dodgers, the San Diego Padres went all in when it came to the rotation. This off-season, they completed a trio of trades that netted them Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove. Throw in Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet, and the Padres rotation is loaded. This doesn’t even account for Mike Clevinger who is out for the year due to Tommy John and uber-prospect MacKenzie Gore who has yet to make his debut.
San Diego’s rotation hinges on Snell and Darvish continuing their success. After struggling during the first few years of his Cubs tenure, Darvish finally delivered in 2020. He finished second in NL Cy Young voting, going 8-3, with a 2.01 ERA, and 93 strikeouts. The veteran was a major reason why the Cubs won the NL Central, but he will need to replicate his success across a full 162 game season.
Snell has yet to fully build on his impressive 2018 campaign that culminated with him winning his first AL Cy Young. However, he still had a solid 2020, going 4-2, with a 3.24 ERA and 63 strikeouts. His 4.34 FIP is alarming, showing that he benefited from Tampa’s elite defense.
Luckily for the Padres co-aces, they have Paddack, Lamet, and Musgrove all behind them, taking the pressure off of them to a high degree.
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected 2021 Starting Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, David Price
2021 Stats: W/L 17-6, 3.29 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 5.0 fWAR
The rich get richer. Despite having one of the best rotations in baseball, the Dodgers went out and signed the reigning 2020 NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Throw in Walker Buehler and Julio Urias, plus David Price, who is returning after opting-out from the 2020 season, and the Dodgers are stacked from one-five.
Clayton Kershaw is no longer the ace of the staff, but the future Hall of Famer is still the face. After years of postseason futility, the veteran finally won his ring. Fresh off a season which saw him go, 6-2, with a 2.19 ERA, and 62 seasons, Kershaw still has plenty left in the tank.
The Dodgers threw the bag at Bauer and he happily accepted. He signed with the Dodgers on a three-year deal worth $102 million. After his Cy Young season, this is understandable. Last year he went 5-4, with a 1.73 ERA, and 100 strikeouts, while leading the Reds to the playoffs. Critics were quick to point out that his stats were inflated against inferior AL and NL Central hitters, but Bauer kept it going against a stacked Bravest lineup in the playoffs.
Julio Urias is only 24 and already has five seasons under his belt. After teasing glimpses of his potential, the youngster finally put it all together during the Dodgers World Series run. In six appearances, Urias went 2-4, with a 1.17 ERA, and 29 strikeouts. He was instrumental in the team winning the Fall Classic. Now, expect Urias to be a pivotal part of the rotation moving forward.
Walker Buehler is the future of the rotation, but struggled in 2020, with his FIP ballooning above a 4.00. But in the team’s World Series run, he was lights out, going 5-2, with a 1.80 ERA and 39 strikeouts in seven starts.
David Price is more name at this point in his career, but the former ace can still eat innings. Since 2010, he has only thrown less than 170+ innings twice, averaging 218 a year. As the Dodgers number five starter, he won’t have the pressure to lead the rotation.