We have reached the point in the baseball schedule when the games matter. With the final roster cuts being made, and the 26 best Washington Nationals heading north, Opening Day is upon us. Jacob deGrom and the new-look, New York Mets await the Nats as the 2021 baseball season kicks off.
BetMGM has set the total number of wins for the Nationals at 84.5. The writers of District on Deck are going to put their mouth where their money is and speculate whether the baseballers from DC exceed the win total, or fall short.
District on Deck staff members determine whether the 2021 Washington Nationals will go over or under 84.5 wins on the season.
Ever since the Lerner family offered Jayson Werth $126M over seven years expectations have been high. Ever since the Nationals ushered in their first division title in 2012, expectations have been high. The Nationals won 98 games during the 2012 season. They have won over 90 games four times since then. Only the 2015 Matt Williams debacle, and the 2018 Davey Martinez, let’s get over the camel hump (have to get to the hump before you get over it), seasons did the Nationals win less than 85 games.
The over/under in the pandemic shortened 2020 season for the Nationals was set at 33. Injuries played a huge part in the team not achieving this goal. Whatever the case, there are a lot of variables involved on whether a team meets expectations or not.
Max Rayman: Overs
Hammer the over! Washington’s lineup projects to be much better than it was in 2020. Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber were acquired to hit bombs, something they are both very adept at. The duo spent the spring working with Washington’s hitting coach Kevin Long to tweak their swings. Be it spring training, but the extra work has seemed to pay off. Schwarber and Bell both looked comfortable at the plate, hitting .250, with four homers, and .383, with six homers respectively.
Ryan Zimmerman is back after opting out of the 2020 season. Pundits were worried that a year off would be the end of his career, but it seems to be the opposite. In 27 at bats, he hit .481, with six homers. Josh Harrison re-signed with the team on a one year deal and surprisingly won the starting second base job. Starlin Castro’s 2020 season ended abruptly after he broke his wrist, but he looked fully recovered this spring. With Spencer Kieboom’s demotion, Castro was named the starting third baseman. While neither Harrison or Castro are known for their power, they both excel at getting on base.
Throw in Victor Robles, Trea Turner, and Juan Soto, and Washington’s offense is oozing with potential. Two things to keep an eye on is the lineup will strikeout at an alarming rate and boasts one of the worst defenses in the league.
The pitching staff is almost fully healthy, with the big thee once again leading the way. Jon Lester is the team’s new fourth starter and Joe Ross is back after opting out of the 2020 season. Once again, the bullpen is full of question marks. Unfortunately, off-season injuries’ have thrown a wrench in the team’s plans.
However, the team has too much talent to not win close to 90 games.
James Simmons: Overs
There are two win totals in the National League East I am particularly confused by. The Nationals. The New York Mets. With as much as the teams in a division play one another, I do believe the East will beat each other up. For this reason I do not think the Mets punch overs on 90.5 wins for the year. Does Francisco Lindor boost their stock that much? Nationals on the other hand. The 84.5 wins is too low, and I predict they will go over.
A revamped offensive lineup, which will score runs for a healthy pitching staff, while giving way to a retooled bullpen. All the ingredients for a quality baseball team.
With the spring Josh Bell and Ryan Zimmerman had, they have proven they are locked in and ready to tear the cover off the ball when the season starts. Kyle Schwarber showed enough to lead us to believe he’s good for twenty plus home runs. Trea Turner and Juan Soto had mediocre springs, though are coming off career years a season ago.
In 2020, the Nationals didn’t receive one healthy start from Stephen Strasburg. Patrick Corbin led the majors in hits allowed. Max Scherzer had his highest FIP in ten years and Anibal Sanchez pitched more than five innings just twice in eleven starts while finishing with an ERA over 6.00. Strasburg is healthy. Corbin is refocused. Scherzer struck out 20 in 13 spring training innings. Sanchez was replaced by Jon Lester who was serviceable in three outings during camp.
A 7-9 record in one run games a year ago, meant the Nationals needed to bring in Brad Hand to bolster the back of the bullpen. Hand converted all 16 save opportunities a year ago and didn’t surrender a home run. The ninth inning belongs to him.
I’m taking overs on 84.5.